Effects of anthropogenic aerosol and greenhouse gas emissions on Northern Hemisphere monsoon precipitation: mechanisms and uncertainty

Northern Hemisphere Land monsoon precipitation (NHLM) exhibits multidecadal variability, decreasing over the second half of the 20st century and increasing after the 1980s. We use a novel combination of CMIP6 simulations and several large ensembles to assess the relative roles of drivers of monsoon precipitation trends, analyzing the effects of anthropogenic aerosol (AA), greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and natural forcing. We decomposed summer global monsoon precipitation anomalies into dynamic and thermodynamic terms to assess the drivers of precipitation trends. We show that the drying trends are likely to be mainly due to increased AA emissions, which cause shifts of the atmospheric circulation and a decrease in moisture advection. Increases in GHG emissions cause monsoon precipitation to increase due to strengthened moisture advection. The uncertainty in summer monsoon precipitation trends is explored using three initial condition large ensembles. AA emissions have strong controls on monsoon precipitation trends, exceeding the effects of internal climate variability. However, uncertainties in the effects of external forcings on monsoon precipitation are high for specific periods and monsoon domains, and due to differences in how models simulate shifts in atmospheric circulation. The effect of AA emissions is uncertain over the northern African monsoon domain, due to differences among climate models in simulating the effects of AA emissions on net shortwave radiation over the North Atlantic Ocean.

A view of global monsoons in observed and model climatology

A 17 - year (1979-95) January and July climatology obtained from a T 62/ 28 -level version of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) global spectral operational model is compared with a mean observed climatology for the same period obtained from its reanalysis project, with a view to finding out how well it captures some of the well-thrown characteristics of the global monsoon circulation generated seasonally by differential heating of the earth's surface by the sun in the course of its annual oscillation about the equator. Good correspondence between the two is found in the fields of mean monthly anomaly (deviation of monthly mean from the annual mean) of surface temperature, surface pressure, atmospheric circulation and total rainfall over most parts of the globe, barring a few exceptions mostly in circulation and rainfall. Large diversity in the distribution and intensity of monsoon found over different regions due to land-sea configurations, cold and warm ocean surfaces and high mountain ranges appears to be well reflected in model and observed climatology. However, the concept of a single equatorial trough moving from one hemisphere to the other to cause advance and onset of monsoon appears to fail especially over warm oceans, where there appears to be evidence in favour of two troughs, one in each hemisphere. It is the equatorial trough in the summer hemisphere that moves to bring up the monsoon in that hemisphere. There appears to be some evidence to suggest an east-west movement of monsoons between major continents and oceans.

Assessing the Reliability of Global Monsoon Low Pressure System Track Datasets for the East Asian Monsoon

Limited by the lack of atmospheric observation data over the ocean and the absence of a comprehensive set of track data for monsoon low pressure systems (MLPSs), an in-depth understanding of the activity of East Asian MLPSs has not been acquired. In recent years, advancements in satellite remote sensing and data assimilation techniques have enabled the creation of numerous high-resolution global reanalysis datasets. Additionally, with the improvement of tracking algorithms, two sets of global MLPS track data (HB2015 and VB2020) have been published. This study seeks to understand the fidelity of the two datasets with respect to the East Asian monsoon. The genesis location, movement path, and three-dimensional structure of the East Asian MLPSs obtained using HB2015 and VB2020 are compared, and the atmospheric circulation conditions of typical MLPSs are analyzed. The results show that both datasets are able to generate MLPSs with identical structure for the East Asian Monsoon, and they provide similar results in terms of the location and monthly frequency. Compared to the HB2015, the VB2020 adopts a more stringent set of thresholds for the determination of the MLPS genesis and extinction and a more rigorous tracking algorithm. Therefore, it yields a lower count of MLPSs with significantly shorter lifetimes. However, the MLPSs identified by the VB2020 all have cyclonic circulations in the proximity of their central areas as they continue their movement. In this sense, the results generated by the VB2020 are more consistent with the observed MLPSs and hence are more reliable. However, the tracking can end prematurely with this dataset.

Dependence of global monsoon response to volcanic eruptions on the background oceanic states

Both proxy data and climate modeling show divergent responses of global monsoon precipitation to volcanic eruptions. The reason is however unknown. Here, based on analysis of the CESM Last Millennium Ensemble simulation, we show evidences that the divergent responses are dominated by the pre-eruption background oceanic states. We found that under El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral and warm phases initial conditions, the Pacific favors an El Niño-like anomaly after volcanic eruptions, while La Niña-like SST anomalies tend to occur following eruptions under ENSO cold phase initial condition, especially after southern eruptions. The cold initial condition is associated with stronger upper ocean temperature stratification and shallower thermocline over the eastern Pacific than normal. The easterly anomalies triggered by surface cooling over the tropical South America continent can generate changes in SST through anomalous advection and the ocean subsurface upwelling more efficiently, causing La Niña-like SST anomalies. Whereas under warm initial condition, the easterly anomalies fail to develop and the westerly anomalies still play a dominant role, thus forms an El Niño-like SST anomaly. Such SST response further regulates the monsoon precipitation changes through atmospheric teleconnection. The contribution of direct radiative forcing and indirect SST response to precipitation changes show regional differences, which will further affect the intensity and sign of precipitation response in submonsoon regions. Our results imply that attention should be paid to the background oceanic state when predicting the global monsoon precipitation responses to volcanic eruptions.

East Asian winter monsoon variation during the last 3000 years as recorded in a subtropical mountain lake, northeastern Taiwan

The East Asian Winter Monsoon (EAWM) is a fundamental part of the global monsoon system that affects nearly one-quarter of the world’s population. Robust paleoclimate reconstructions in East Asia are complicated by multiple sources of precipitation. These sources, such as the EAWM and typhoons, need to be disentangled in order to understand the dominant source of precipitation influencing the past and current climate. Taiwan, situated within the subtropical East Asian monsoon system, provides a unique opportunity to study monsoon and typhoon variability through time. Here we combine sediment trap data with down-core records from Cueifong Lake in northeastern Taiwan to reconstruct monsoonal rainfall fluctuations over the past 3000 years. The monthly collected grain-size data indicate that a decrease in sediment grain size reflects the strength of the EAWM. End member modelling analysis (EMMA) on sediment core and trap data reveals two dominant grain-size end-members (EMs), with the coarse EM 2 representing a robust indicator of EAWM strength. The downcore variations of EM 2 show a gradual decrease over the past 3000 years indicating a gradual strengthening of the EAWM, in agreement with other published EAWM records. This enhanced late-Holocene EAWM can be linked to the expansion of sea-ice cover in the western Arctic Ocean caused by decreased summer insolation.

GOSAT CH4 Vertical Profiles over the Indian Subcontinent: Effect of a Priori and Averaging Kernels for Climate Applications

We examined methane (CH4) variability over different regions of India and the surrounding oceans derived from thermal infrared (TIR) band observations (TIR CH4) by the Thermal and Near-infrared Sensor for carbon Observation—Fourier Transform Spectrometer (TANSO-FTS) onboard the Greenhouse gases Observation SATellite (GOSAT) for the period 2009–2014. This study attempts to understand the sensitivity of the vertical profile retrievals at different layers of the troposphere and lower stratosphere, on the basis of the averaging kernel (AK) functions and a priori assumptions, as applied to the simulated concentrations by the MIROC4.0-based Atmospheric Chemistry-Transport Model (MIROC4-ACTM). We stress that this is of particular importance when the satellite-derived products are analyzed using different ACTMs other than those used as retrieved a priori. A comparison of modeled and retrieved CH4 vertical profiles shows that the GOSAT/TANSO-FTS TIR instrument has sufficient sensitivity to provide critical information about the transport of CH4 from the top of the boundary layer to the upper troposphere. The mean mismatch between TIR CH4 and model is within 50 ppb, except for the altitude range above 150 hPa, where the sensitivity of TIR CH4 observations becomes very low. Convolved model profiles with TIR CH4 AK reduces the mismatch to less than the retrieval uncertainty. Distinct seasonal variations of CH4 have been observed near the atmospheric boundary layer (800 hPa), free troposphere (500 hPa), and upper troposphere (300 hPa) over the northern and southern regions of India, corresponding to the southwest monsoon (July–September) and post-monsoon (October–December) seasons. Analysis of the transport and emission contributions to CH4 suggests that the CH4 seasonal cycle over the Indian subcontinent is governed by both the heterogeneous distributions of surface emissions and the influence of the global monsoon divergent wind circulations. The major contrast between monsoon, and pre- and post-monsoon profiles of CH4 over Indian regions are noticed near the boundary layer heights, which is mainly caused by seasonal change in local emission strength with a peak during summer due to increased emissions from the paddy fields and wetlands. A strong difference between seasons in the middle and upper troposphere is caused by convective transport of the emission signals from the surface and redistribution in the monsoon anticyclone of upper troposphere. TIR CH4 observations provide additional information on CH4 in the region compared to what is known from in situ data and total-column (XCH4) measurements. Based on two emission sensitivity simulations compared to TIR CH4 observations, we suggest that the emissions of CH4 from the India region were 51.2 ± 4.6 Tg year−1 during the period 2009–2014. Our results suggest that improvements in the a priori profile shape in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UT/LS) region would help better interpretation of CH4 cycling in the earth’s environment.