scholarly journals Linking Low‐Frequency Large‐Scale Circulation Patterns to Cold Air Outbreak Formation in the Northeastern North Atlantic

2018 ◽  
Vol 45 (5) ◽  
pp. 2542-2553 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. Papritz ◽  
C. M. Grams
Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (7) ◽  
pp. 745
Author(s):  
Carlos A. Ochoa-Moya ◽  
Yoel A. Cala-Pérez ◽  
Yanet Díaz-Esteban ◽  
Christopher L. Castro ◽  
Paulina Ordoñez-Peréz ◽  
...  

In this study, twenty large-scale circulation patterns are identified to generate a synoptic classification of Weather Types (WT) over a region that comprises Mexico, the Intra-Americas Seas, Central America, and northern South America. This classification is performed using Self-Organizing Maps (SOMs) with mean sea-level pressure standardized anomalies from reanalysis. The influence of quasi-permanent pressure centers over the region, such as North Atlantic Subtropical High (NASH) and North Pacific High (NPH) are well captured. Seasonal variability of high-pressure centers for dry (November–April) and wet (May–October) periods over the entire region are also well represented in amplitude and pattern among the WTs. The NASH influence and intensification of the Caribbean low-level jet and the North American monsoon system is well captured. During the dry period, a strong trough wind advects cold air masses from mid-latitudes to the subtropics over the western Atlantic Ocean. High-frequency transitions among WTs tend to cluster around the nearest neighbors in SOM space, while low-frequency transitions occur along columns instead of rows in the SOM matrix. Low-frequency transitions are related to intraseasonal and seasonal scales. The constructed catalog can identify near-surface atmospheric circulation patterns from a unified perspective of synoptic climate variability, and it is in high agreement with previous studies for the region.


2017 ◽  
Vol 145 (9) ◽  
pp. 3687-3708 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicholas J. Schiraldi ◽  
Paul E. Roundy

The prediction of drought onset and decay in the U.S. Corn Belt region (CBR) on seasonal-to-subseasonal time scales has not been well studied. This study utilizes the subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction archive to assess model errors in large-scale circulation patterns associated with agricultural drought transition periods, targeting models used by the European Centre for Medium-Range Forecasts, National Centers for Environmental Prediction, and Australian Bureau of Meteorology. An analysis of the seasonal cycle of bias for geopotential anomalies at 200 hPa and net radiation at the top of the atmosphere in each model is presented and used to subtract the long-term bias from each model. Model fields are decomposed into three spectral bands—low frequency (periods > 100 days), intraseasonal (periods 20–100 days), and synoptic (periods < 20 days)—to demonstrate each model’s ability to predict patterns associated with agricultural drought transition periods in each band. Results demonstrate that ECMWF and NCEP struggle in predicting the large-scale circulation patterns associated with 20-day agricultural drought and onset transitions, but are more skillful in predicting the patterns associated with 60-day agricultural drought onset and decay events at reforecast hour lead window 360–480 (F360–F480). BoM was not skillful in predicting the circulation patterns associated with either type of drought transition. Results also demonstrate that the errors associated with these events are no worse than historical errors for the target study period.


2012 ◽  
Vol 41 (7-8) ◽  
pp. 1983-2002 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jhan Carlo Espinoza ◽  
Josyane Ronchail ◽  
Matthieu Lengaigne ◽  
Nelson Quispe ◽  
Yamina Silva ◽  
...  

2005 ◽  
Vol 18 (19) ◽  
pp. 4032-4045 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nikolaus Groll ◽  
Martin Widmann ◽  
Julie M. Jones ◽  
Frank Kaspar ◽  
Stephan J. Lorenz

Abstract To investigate relationships between large-scale circulation and regional-scale temperatures during the last (Eemian) interglacial, a simulation with a general circulation model (GCM) under orbital forcing conditions of 125 kyr BP is compared with a simulation forced with the Late Holocene preindustrial conditions. Consistent with previous GCM simulations for the Eemian, higher northern summer 2-m temperatures are found, which are directly related to the different insolation. Differences in the mean circulation are evident such as, for instance, stronger northern winter westerlies toward Europe, which are associated with warmer temperatures in central and northeastern Europe in the Eemian simulation, while the circulation variability, analyzed by means of a principal component analysis of the sea level pressure (SLP) field, is very similar in both periods. As a consequence of the differences in the mean circulation the simulated Arctic Oscillation (AO) temperature signal in the northern winter, on interannual-to-multidecadal time scales, is weaker during the Eemian than today over large parts of the Northern Hemisphere. Correlations between the AO index and the central European temperature (CET) decrease by about 0.2. The winter and spring SLP anomalies over the North Atlantic/European domain that are most strongly linearly linked to the CET cover a smaller area and are shifted westward over the North Atlantic during the Eemian. However, the strength of the connection between CET and these SLP anomalies is similar in both simulations. The simulated differences in the AO temperature signal and in the SLP anomaly, which is linearly linked to the CET, suggest that during the Eemian the link between the large-scale circulation and temperature-sensitive proxy data from Europe may differ from present-day conditions and that this difference should be taken into account when inferring large-scale climate from temperature-sensitive proxy data.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael P. Jensen ◽  
Virendra P. Ghate ◽  
Dié Wang ◽  
Diana K. Apoznanski ◽  
Mary J. Bartholomew ◽  
...  

Abstract. Extensive regions of marine boundary layer cloud impact the radiative balance through their significant shortwave albedo while having little impact on outgoing longwave radiation. Despite this importance, these cloud systems remain poorly represented in large-scale models due to difficulty in representing the processes that drive their lifecycle and coverage. In particular, the mesoscale organization, and cellular structure of marine boundary clouds has important implications for the subsequent cloud feedbacks. In this study, we use long-term (2013–2018) observations from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Facility's Eastern North Atlantic (ENA) site on Graciosa Island, Azores, Portugal to identify cloud cases with open- or closed-cellular organization. More than 500 hours of each organization type are identified. The ARM observations are combined with reanalysis and satellite products to quantify the cloud, precipitation, aerosol, thermodynamic and large-scale synoptic characteristics associated with these cloud types. Our analysis shows that both cloud organization populations occur during similar sea surface temperature conditions, but the open-cell cases are distinguished by stronger cold-air advection and large-scale subsidence compared to the closed-cell cases, consistent with their formation during cold-air outbreaks. We also find that the open-cell cases were associated with deeper boundary layers, stronger low-level winds, and higher-rain rates compared to their closed-cell counterparts. Finally, raindrops with diameters larger than one millimeter were routinely recorded at the surface during both populations, with a higher number of large drops during the open-cellular cases. The similarities and differences noted herein provide important insights into the environmental and cloud characteristics during varying marine boundary layer cloud mesoscale organization and will be useful for the evaluation of model simulations for ENA marine clouds.


2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (19) ◽  
pp. 14557-14571
Author(s):  
Michael P. Jensen ◽  
Virendra P. Ghate ◽  
Dié Wang ◽  
Diana K. Apoznanski ◽  
Mary J. Bartholomew ◽  
...  

Abstract. Extensive regions of marine boundary layer cloud impact the radiative balance through their significant shortwave albedo while having little impact on outgoing longwave radiation. Despite this importance, these cloud systems remain poorly represented in large-scale models due to difficulty in representing the processes that drive their life cycle and coverage. In particular, the mesoscale organization and cellular structure of marine boundary clouds have important implications for the subsequent cloud feedbacks. In this study, we use long-term (2013–2018) observations from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Facility's Eastern North Atlantic (ENA) site on Graciosa Island, Azores, Portugal, to identify cloud cases with open- or closed-cellular organization. More than 500 h of each organization type are identified. The ARM observations are combined with reanalysis and satellite products to quantify the cloud, precipitation, aerosol, thermodynamic, and large-scale synoptic characteristics associated with these cloud types. Our analysis shows that both cloud organization populations occur during similar sea surface temperature conditions, but the open-cell cases are distinguished by stronger cold-air advection and large-scale subsidence compared to the closed-cell cases, consistent with their formation during cold-air outbreaks. We also find that the open-cell cases were associated with deeper boundary layers, stronger low-level winds, and higher rain rates compared to their closed-cell counterparts. Finally, raindrops with diameters larger than 1 mm were routinely recorded at the surface during both populations, with a higher number of large drops during the open-cellular cases. The similarities and differences noted herein provide important insights into the environmental and cloud characteristics during varying marine boundary layer cloud mesoscale organization and will be useful for the evaluation of model simulations for ENA marine clouds.


2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (6) ◽  
pp. 2511-2532 ◽  
Author(s):  
Clio Michel ◽  
Annick Terpstra ◽  
Thomas Spengler

Polar mesoscale cyclones (PMCs) are automatically detected and tracked over the Nordic seas using the Melbourne University algorithm applied to ERA-Interim. The novelty of this study lies in the length of the dataset (1979–2014), using PMC tracks to infer relationships to large-scale flow patterns, and elucidating the sensitivity to different selection criteria when defining PMCs and polar lows and their genesis environments. The angle between the ambient mean and thermal wind is used to distinguish two different PMC genesis environments. The forward shear environment (thermal and mean wind have the same direction) features typical baroclinic conditions with a temperature gradient at the surface and a strong jet stream at the tropopause. The reverse shear environment (thermal and mean wind have opposite directions) features an occluded cyclone with a barotropic structure throughout the entire troposphere and a low-level jet. In contrast to previous studies, PMC occurrence features neither a significant trend nor a significant link with the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Scandinavian blocking (SB), though the SB negative pattern seems to promote reverse shear PMC genesis. The sea ice extent in the Nordic seas is not associated with overall changes in PMC occurrence but influences the genesis location. Selected cold air outbreak indices and the temperature difference between the sea surface and 500 hPa (SST − T500) show no robust link with PMC occurrence, but the characteristics of forward shear PMCs and their synoptic environments are sensitive to the choice of the SST − T500 threshold.


2017 ◽  
Vol 102 ◽  
pp. 214-223 ◽  
Author(s):  
J.M. Correia ◽  
A. Bastos ◽  
M.C. Brito ◽  
R.M. Trigo

2020 ◽  
Vol 212 ◽  
pp. 103456
Author(s):  
Kirstin Schulz ◽  
Karline Soetaert ◽  
Christian Mohn ◽  
Laura Korte ◽  
Furu Mienis ◽  
...  

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