Age Spectra and Other Transport Diagnostics in the North American Monsoon UTLS from SEAC⁴RS In Situ Trace Gas Measurements

The upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) during the summer monsoon season over North America (NAM) is influenced by the transport of air from a variety of source regions over a wide range of time scales (hours to years). Age spectra are useful for characterizing the transport into such a region and in this study we use and build on recently developed techniques to infer age spectra from trace gas measurements with photochemical lifetimes from days to centuries. We show that the measurements taken by the Whole Air Sampler instrument during the SEAC4RS campaign can be used to not only derive age spectra, but also path-integrated lifetimes of each of the trace gases and surface source regions. The method used here can also clearly identify and adjust for measurement outliers that were influenced by polluted surface source regions. The results are generally consistent with expected transport features of the NAM but also provide a range of transport diagnostics that have not previously been computed solely from in situ measurements. These methods may be applied to many other existing in situ datasets and the transport diagnostics can be compared with chemistry-climate model transport in the UTLS.

The effects of ENSO and the North American monsoon on mast seeding in two Rocky Mountain conifer species

We aimed to disentangle the patterns of synchronous and variable cone production (i.e. masting) and its relationship to climate in two conifer species native to dry forests of western North America. We used cone abscission scars to reconstruct ca 15 years of recent cone production in Pinus edulis and Pinus ponderosa , and used redundancy analysis to relate time series of annual cone production to climate indices describing the North American monsoon and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). We show that the sensitivity to climate and resulting synchrony in cone production varies substantially between species. Cone production among populations of P. edulis was much more spatially synchronous and more closely related to large-scale modes of climate variability than among populations of P. ponderosa . Large-scale synchrony in P. edulis cone production was associated with the North American monsoon and we identified a dipole pattern of regional cone production associated with ENSO phase. In P. ponderosa , these climate indices were not strongly associated with cone production, resulting in asynchronous masting patterns among populations. This study helps frame our understanding of mast seeding as a life-history strategy and has implications for our ability to forecast mast years in these species. This article is part of the theme issue ‘The ecology and evolution of synchronized seed production in plants’.

In situ observations of CH₂Cl₂ and CHCl₃ show efficient transport pathways for very short-lived species into the lower stratosphere via the Asian and North American summer monsoons

Efficient transport pathways for ozone depleting very short-lived substances (VSLS) from their source regions into the stratosphere are a matter of current scientific debate, however they have yet to be fully identified on an observational basis. Understanding the increasing impact of chlorine containing VSLS (Cl-VSLS) on stratospheric ozone depletion is important in order to validate and improve model simulations and future predictions. We report on the first transport study using airborne in situ measurements of the Cl-VSLS dichloromethane (CH2Cl2) and trichloromethane (chloroform, CHCl3) to derive a detailed description of the two most efficient and fast transport pathways from (sub-)tropical source regions into the extratropical lower stratosphere (Ex-LS) in northern hemisphere (NH) late summer. The Cl-VSLS measurements were obtained in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) above Western Europe and the mid latitude Atlantic Ocean in the frame of the WISE (Wave-driven ISentropic Exchange) aircraft campaign in autumn 2017 and are combined with the results from a three-dimensional simulation of a Lagrangian transport model as well as back-trajectory calculations. Compared to background measurements of similar age we find up to 150 % enhanced CH2Cl2 and up to 100 % enhanced CHCl3 mixing ratios in the Ex-LS. We link the measurements of enhanced mixing ratios to emissions in the region of southern and eastern Asia. Transport from this area to the Ex-LS at potential temperatures in the range of 370–400 K takes about 5–10 weeks via the Asian summer monsoon anticyclone (ASMA). Our measurements suggest anthropogenic sources to be the cause of these strongly elevated Cl-VSLS concentrations observed at the top of the lowermost stratosphere (LMS). A faster transport pathway into the Ex-LS is derived from particularly low CH2Cl2 and CHCl3 mixing ratios in the UTLS. These low mixing ratios reflect weak emission sources and a local seasonal minimum of both species in the boundary layer of Central America and the tropical Atlantic. We show that air masses uplifted by hurricanes, the North American monsoon, and general convection above Central America into the tropical tropopause layer to potential temperatures of about 360–370 K are transported isentropically within 1–5 weeks into the Ex-LS. This transport pathway linked to the North American monsoon mainly impacts the middle and lower part of the LMS with particularly low CH2Cl2 and CHCl3 mixing ratios. In a case study, we specifically analyze air samples directly linked to the uplift by the category 5 hurricane Maria that occurred during October 2017 above the Atlantic Ocean. Regionally differing CHCl3 : CH2Cl2 emission ratios derived from our UTLS measurements suggest a clear similarity between CHCl3 and CH2Cl2 when emitted by anthropogenic sources and differences between the two species mainly caused by additional, likely biogenic, CHCl3 sources. Overall, the transport of strongly enhanced CH2Cl2 and CHCl3 mixing ratios from southern and eastern Asia via the ASMA is the main factor for increasing the chlorine loading from the analyzed VSLS in the Ex-LS during NH late summer. Thus, further increases in Asian CH2Cl2 and CHCl3 emissions, as frequently reported in recent years, will further increase the impact of Cl-VSLS on stratospheric ozone depletion.

The Last 1200 Years of Rainfall/Runoff Variability along the Central Mexico Pacific Coast Associated with the North American Monsoon

This study presents new evidence for long-term variability in the late Holocene North American Monsoon (NAM), Pacific coast of Mexico. We have carried out a rock magnetic study on two deep-sea sediment cores from the Pacific coast Pescadero Basin. The magnetic intensities estimate total magnetic material and are a proxy for total clastic sediment. Ratios of magnetic intensities estimate the grain size of magnetic material. The rock magnetic data show a decimeter scale, multi-decadal oscillation with fourteen cycles (A-N) over the last 1200 years. These oscillations reflect alternating intervals of stronger/coarser magnetic/clastic flux to the coastal ocean and intervals of weaker/finer magnetic flux. We think these variations are caused by variations in long-term dominance of the NAM; summer (wet) monsoons produce rainy conditions (with runoff) while winter (dry) monsoons produce significant offshore winds, increased upwelling/biological productivity. We can correlate our variability to two other published studies southeast of Pescadero Basin, coastal lake sediments in Laguna de Juanacatlan and a Juxtlahuaca Cave stalagmite. Both of these studies estimate local rainfall. We see evidence of the same pattern of multi-decadal rainfall-runoff variability in these records as we see in Pescadero Basin, which is synchronous to within ±25 years over the last 1200 years. The multi-dacadal pattern of hydrologic variability in all three records varies in cycle duration from ~90-years wet/dry cycles in the Little Ice Age (1400–1850 AD) to ~60-years cycles in the Medieval Climate Optimum (1100–1400 AD). This variability in cycle duration suggests some chaotic nature to the regional NAM climate pattern or some long-term non-linear forcing (PDO?).

The Impact of Assimilating GPS Precipitable Water Vapor in Convective-Permitting WRF-ARW on North American Monsoon Precipitation Forecasts over Northwest Mexico

We assess the impact of GPS precipitable water vapor (GPS-PWV) data assimilation (DA) on short-range North American monsoon (NAM) precipitation forecasts, across 38 days with weak synoptic forcing, during the NAM GPS Hydrometeorological Network field campaign in 2017 over northwest Mexico. Utilizing an ensemble-based data assimilation technique, the GPS-PWV data retrieved from 18 observation sites are assimilated every hour for 12 hours into a 30-member ensemble convective-permitting (2.5 km) Advanced Research version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) model. As the assimilation of the GPS-PWV improves the initial condition of WRF by reducing the root mean square error and bias of PWV across 1200-1800 UTC, this also leads to an improvement in capturing nocturnal convection of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs; after 0300 UTC) and to an increase by 0.1 mm h-1 in subsequent precipitation during the 0300-0600 UTC period relative to no assimilation of the GPS-PWV (NODA) over the area with relatively more observation sites. This response is consistent with observed precipitation from the Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement Final Precipitation product. Moreover, compared to the NODA, we find that the GPS-PWV DA decreases cloud top temperature, increases most unstable convective available energy and surface dewpoint temperature, and thus creates a more favorable condition for convective organization in the region.