Propagation of Thermohaline Anomalies and their predictive potential along the Atlantic water pathway

We assess to what extent seven state-of-the-art dynamical prediction systems can retrospectively predict winter sea surface temperature (SST) in the subpolar North Atlantic and the Nordic Seas in the period 1970-2005. We focus on the region where warm water flows poleward, i.e., the Atlantic water pathway to the Arctic, and on interannual-to-decadal time scales. Observational studies demonstrate predictability several years in advance in this region, but we find that SST skill is low with significant skill only at lead time 1-2 years. To better understand why the prediction systems have predictive skill or lack thereof, we assess the skill of the systems to reproduce a spatio-temporal SST pattern based on observations. The physical mechanism underlying this pattern is a propagation of oceanic anomalies from low to high latitudes along the major currents; the North Atlantic Current and the Norwegian Atlantic Current. We find that the prediction systems have difficulties in reproducing this pattern. To identify whether the misrepresentation is due to incorrect model physics, we assess the respective uninitialized historical simulations. These simulations also tend to misrepresent the spatio-temporal SST pattern, indicating that the physical mechanism is not properly simulated. However, the representation of the pattern is slightly degraded in the predictions compared to historical runs, which could be a result of initialization shocks and forecast drift effects. Ways to enhance predictions, could be through improved initialization, and better simulation of poleward circulation of anomalies. This might require model resolutions in which flow over complex bathymetry and physics of mesoscale ocean eddies and their interactions with the atmosphere are resolved.

North Atlantic freshwater events influence European weather in subsequent summers

Amplified Arctic ice loss in recent decades has been linked to increased occurrence of extreme mid-latitude weather. The underlying dynamical mechanisms remain elusive, however. Here, we demonstrate a novel mechanism linking freshwater releases into the North Atlantic with summer weather in Europe. Combining remote sensing, atmospheric reanalyses and model simulations, we show that freshwater events in summer trigger progressively sharper sea surface temperature gradients in subsequent winters, destabilising the overlying atmosphere and inducing a northward shift in the North Atlantic Current. In turn, the jet stream over the North Atlantic is deflected northward in the following summers, leading to warmer and drier weather over Europe. Our results suggest that growing Arctic freshwater fluxes will increase the risk of heat waves and droughts over the coming decades, and could yield enhanced predictability of European summer weather, months to years in advance.

On climatic changes in the temperature of the Barents Sea and their possible causes

Analysis of the monthly average temperature data of the Barents Sea at various depths showed its significant increase over the past decades. Against the background of this growth, temperature fluctuations were detected with periods close to the periods of El Nino – Global atmospheric oscillations, North Atlantic fluctuations and changes in the North Atlantic current. Analysis of daily average temperature data of the Barents Sea surface showed an increase in the amplitude, number and duration of extreme temperature phenomena with a positive sign and a decrease in extreme temperature phenomena with a negative sign for the period of satellite observations

Dynamical attribution of North Atlantic interdecadal predictability to oceanic and atmospheric turbulence under diagnosed and optimal stochastic forcing

Unpredictable variations in the ocean originate from both external atmospheric forcing and chaotic processes internal to the ocean itself, and are a crucial sink of predictability on interdecadal timescales. In a global ocean model, we present i.) an optimization framework to compute the most efficient noise patterns to generate uncertainty and ii.) a computationally inexpensive, dynamical method for attributing sources of ocean uncertainty to internal (mesoscale eddy-driven) and external (atmospherically driven) origins, sidestepping the more typical ensemble approach. These two methods are then applied to a range of metrics (heat content, volume transport, and heat transport) and time averages (monthly, yearly, and decadal) in the subtropical and subpolar North Atlantic. The optimal noise patterns create variability in integrated quantities of interest through features of the underlying circulation such as the North Atlantic Current and deep water formation regions. Meanwhile, noise forcing diagnosed from model representations of the actual climate system stimulates these theoretical patterns with various degrees of efficiency, ultimately leading to the growth of error. We reaffirm that higher frequency variations in meridional transports are primarily wind driven, while surface buoyancy forcing is the ultimately dominant source of uncertainty at lower frequencies. For year-averaged quantities in the subtropics, it is mesoscale eddies which contribute the most to oceanic uncertainty, accounting for up to 60% after 60 years of growth for volume transport at 25°N. The impact of eddies is greatly reduced in the subpolar region, which we suggest may be explained by overall lower sensitivity to small-scale noise there.

Oceanic Diel Vertical Movement Patterns of Blue Sharks Vary With Water Temperature and Productivity to Change Vulnerability to Fishing

In the pelagic environment diel vertical movements (DVM) are widespread across taxa, from zooplankton ascending from day-time depths into surface layers at night to avoid visual predators, to apex predators following prey movements to maximise foraging opportunities. The drivers of DVM in large predators such as pelagic sharks have only recently begun to be investigated in detail with the advent of sophisticated archival tags and high-resolution oceanographic datasets. In this study, we satellite tagged adult [>180 cm fork length, (FL)] blue sharks (Prionace glauca) in the North Atlantic Ocean to examine behavioural changes in response to the encountered environment, and therefore, to determine potential risks of capture using pelagic longline fisheries data. Although blue sharks recurrently use surface waters, cyclic diel behaviours were observed, with >95% of night-time spent above 250 m depth and variable day-time depth use. Hence, three different diel behaviours were identified during the tracking period: (i) regular normal DVM (nDVM) (dawn descent – dusk ascent, with over 90% of nighttime spent above 250 m, and between 5 and 50% of the day below this threshold); (ii) surface-oriented behaviour (occupation of surface waters both day and night), and (iii) deep depth-oriented nDVM [dawn descent – dusk ascent, with the majority (>50%) of daytime spent at depth]. Importantly, diel behaviours generally occurred in different ocean regions with nDVM frequently observed in high latitudes, associated with cold, highly productive waters (e.g., North Atlantic Current/Labrador Current convergence zone, West African upwelling area), while depth-oriented nDVM was observed in warm, oligotrophic areas. Thus, day-time occupation of shallow waters significantly increased with lower water temperature at depth (100 m), and with increasing concentration (and decreasing depth) of the chlorophyll a maximum. During nights of full moon blue sharks spent significantly more time in the depth range of longline hooks, while fishing effort and catches were also higher. We demonstrate that increased occupancy of surface layers driven by highly productive, cold waters and greater lunar illumination lead to higher capture risk. Understanding habitat-specific vulnerability to fishing in a commercially important pelagic shark species is essential for improving management and conservation measures.

The Influence of Depth-Dependent Seasonal Temperature Variability on Growth Signal in Arctica islandica

Bivalve sclerochronological records with annually resolved growth bands are applicable proxies in reconstructing features of the hydro-climate system. Here we evaluate the relationship between growth indices of A. islandica, previously collected at approximately 82 m depth in the North Atlantic, and seasonal subsurface temperature at various depths for the 1900–2005 period. Correlations with sea surface temperature at the collection site are not significant during winter and weak for the remaining seasons. The strongest in-phase correlations persist for summer and autumn below 56 m water depth, whereas weaker correlations are lagged by one or two years. We also observe similarities with distant water bodies in the North Atlantic sector, and a corresponding large-scale oceanographic pattern that increases significantly with water depth along the trajectory of the North Atlantic Current. We suggest that by investigating the relationship with the temperature signal at various depths locally and at large-scale increases the reliability and application of bivalve shells as marine archives.

Variable Nordic Seas inflow linked to shifts in North Atlantic circulation

The inflow across the Iceland-Scotland Ridge determines the amount of heat supplied to the Nordic Seas from the subpolar North Atlantic (SPNA). Consequently, variable inflow properties and volume transport at the ridge influence marine ecosystems and sea ice extent further north. Here, we identify the upstream pathways of the Nordic Seas inflow, and assess the mechanisms responsible for interannual inflow variability. Using an eddy-permitting ocean model hindcast and a Lagrangian analysis tool, numerical particles are released at the ridge during 1986-2015 and tracked backward in time. We find an inflow that is well-mixed in terms of its properties, where 64% comes from the subtropics and 26% has a subpolar or Arctic origin. The local instantaneous response to the NAO is important for the overall transport of both subtropical and Arctic-origin waters at the ridge. In the years before reaching the ridge, the subtropical particles are influenced by atmospheric circulation anomalies in the gyre boundary region and over the SPNA, forcing shifts in the North Atlantic Current (NAC) and the subpolar front. An equatorward shifted NAC and westward shifted subpolar front correspond to a warmer, more saline inflow. Atmospheric circulation anomalies over the SPNA also affect the amount of Arctic-origin water re-routed from the Labrador Current toward the Nordic Seas. A high transport of Arctic-origin water is associated with a colder, fresher inflow across the Iceland-Scotland Ridge. The results thus demonstrate the importance of gyre dynamics and wind forcing in affecting the Nordic Seas inflow properties and volume transport.

Assessment of the Finite VolumE Sea Ice Ocean Model (FESOM2.0), Part II: Partial bottom cells, embedded sea ice and vertical mixing library CVMIX

The second part of the assessment and evaluation of the unstructured-mesh Finite-volumE Sea ice-Ocean Model version 2.0 (FESOM2.0) is presented. It focuses on the performance of partial cells, embedded sea ice and on the effect of mixing parameterisations available through the CVMIX package. It is shown that partial cells and embedded sea ice lead to significant improvements in the representation of the Gulf Stream and North Atlantic Current as well as the circulation of the Arctic Ocean. In addition to the already existing Pacanowski and Phillander (fesom_PP) and K-profile (fesom_KPP) parameterisations for vertical mixing in FESOM2.0, we document the impact of several mixing parameterisations from the Community Vertical Mixing (CVMIX) project library. Among them are the CVMIX versions of Pacanowski and Phillander (cvmix_PP) and K-profile (cvmix_KPP) parameterisations, the tidal mixing parameterisation (cvmix_TIDAL), a vertical mixing parameterisation based on turbulent kinetic energy (cvmix_TKE) as well as a combination of cvmix_TKE and the recent scheme for the computation of the Internal Wave Dissipation, Energy and Mixing (IDEMIX). The IDEMIX parameterises the redistribution of internal wave energy through wave propagation, nonlinear interactions and the associated imprint on the vertical background diffusivity. Further, the benefit from using a parameterisation of sea ice melt season mixing in the surface layer (MOMIX) for reducing Southern Ocean hydrographic biases in FESOM2.0 is presented. We document the implementation of different model components and illustrate their behaviour. This paper serves primarily as a reference for FESOM users but is also useful to the broader modelling community.

Sea-Surface Characteristics of the Newfoundland Basin of the Northwest Atlantic Ocean during the Last 145,000 Years: A Study Based on the Sedimentological and Paleontological Proxies

Dramatic changes occur in the sea-surface characteristics (i.e., temperature and salinity) and freshwater input due to the interaction of cold and fresh Labrador Current and warm and salty North Atlantic Current (NAC) on the southeast Grand Banks. As a result, the biological productivity and seasonal stratification of the upper water masses are intensified. Such changes must have been more dramatic during the glacial times due to the penetration of the Polar and Arctic fronts and southward migration of the Gulf Stream/NAC. However, the extent to which such changes impacted the sea-surface characteristics in the Newfoundland Basin is poorly known. We report changes in the sea-surface characteristics using a piston core (Hu9007-08) collected from the Milne seamount during the last 145,000 years. Heinrich layers H1, H2, H4, and H5 and H11 within the MIS3 and at the penultimate deglaciation were identified by the ice-rafted detritus (IRD) and Neogloboquadrina pachyderma peaks and lighter oxygen isotopes. Rapid turnover by the foraminiferal species with distinct depth habitats and ecological niches in the mixed-layer and thermocline suggests an interplay between the polar and subpolar water masses during the Heinrich and non-Heinrich periods. Only two North Atlantic-wide cooling events, C24 and C21, in which the latter event linked to the minor IRD event during the marine isotope stage (MIS) 5 in Hu90-08, compared to the eight events in the eastern subpolar gyre (e.g., ODP site 984). Millennial-scale N. pachyderma variability in the western subpolar gyre appears to be absent in the eastern subpolar gyre during the MIS3 suggesting the occasional presence of salty and warm water by the NAC inflow, implying a different climate state between the western and eastern subpolar gyre. Although T. quinqueloba data are fragmentary, there are differences between the western and eastern subpolar gyre in addition to the differences within the western subpolar gyre during MIS5 that might imply a variable influence by the subpolar water. This finding suggests that the influence by the NAC outweighs the impact of cold and fresh polar water in the northern northwest Atlantic during the MIS5.