Do Spatiotemporal Variations Exist in the Event-size Distribution of Extraction-Induced Seismicity in the Groningen Gas Field?

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Annemarie Gerredina Muntendam-Bos ◽  
Niels Grobbe
Keyword(s):  
Size Distribution ◽  
Induced Seismicity ◽  
Spatiotemporal Variations ◽  
Gas Field ◽  
Groningen Gas Field

Statistical mechanics-based forecasting of induced seismicity within the Groningen gas field

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephen Bourne ◽  
Steve Oates
Keyword(s):  
Size Distribution ◽  
Induced Seismicity ◽  
Gas Production ◽  
Linear Functions ◽  
Fault System ◽  
Induced Earthquakes ◽  
Gas Field ◽  
Hazard And Risk ◽  
Stress Dependent ◽  
Groningen Gas Field

<p>Geological faults may fail and produce earthquakes due to external stresses induced by hydrocarbon recovery, geothermal extraction, CO<sub>2</sub> storage or subsurface energy storage. The associated hazard and risk critically depend on the spatiotemporal and size distribution of any induced seismicity. The observed statistics of induced seismicity within the Groningen gas field evolve as non-linear functions of the poroelastic stresses generated by pore pressure depletion since 1965. The rate of earthquake initiation per unit stress has systematically increased as an exponential-like function of cumulative incremental stress over at least the last 25 years of gas production. The expected size of these earthquakes also increased in a manner consistent with a stress-dependent tapering of the seismic moment power-law distribution. Aftershocks of these induced earthquakes are also observed, although evidence for any stress-dependent aftershock productivity or spatiotemporal clustering is inconclusive.</p><p>These observations are consistent with the reactivation of a mechanically disordered fault system characterized by a large, stochastic prestress distribution. If this prestress variability significantly exceeds the induced stress loads, as well as the earthquake stress drops, then the space-time-size distribution of induced earthquakes may be described by mean field theories within statistical fracture mechanics. A probabilistic seismological model based on these theories matches the history of induced seismicity within the Groningen region and correctly forecasts the seismicity response to reduced gas production rates designed to lower the associated seismic hazard and risk.</p>

scholarly journals Statistical physics models for aftershocks and induced seismicity

2018 ◽  
Vol 377 (2136) ◽  
pp. 20170397 ◽  
Author(s):  
Molly Luginbuhl ◽  
John B. Rundle ◽  
Donald L. Turcotte
Keyword(s):  
Induced Seismicity ◽  
Statistical Physics ◽  
Aftershock Sequence ◽  
Induced Earthquakes ◽  
Aftershock Activity ◽  
Gas Field ◽  
Natural Time ◽  
Parkfield Earthquake ◽  
Groningen Gas Field

A standard approach to quantifying the seismic hazard is the relative intensity (RI) method. It is assumed that the rate of seismicity is constant in time and the rate of occurrence of small earthquakes is extrapolated to large earthquakes using Gutenberg–Richter scaling. We introduce nowcasting to extend RI forecasting to time-dependent seismicity, for example, during an aftershock sequence. Nowcasting uses ‘natural time’; in seismicity natural time is the event count of small earthquakes. The event count for small earthquakes is extrapolated to larger earthquakes using Gutenberg–Richter scaling. We first review the concepts of natural time and nowcasting and then illustrate seismic nowcasting with three examples. We first consider the aftershock sequence of the 2004 Parkfield earthquake on the San Andreas fault in California. Some earthquakes have higher rates of aftershock activity than other earthquakes of the same magnitude. Our approach allows the determination of the rate in real time during the aftershock sequence. We also consider two examples of induced earthquakes. Large injections of waste water from petroleum extraction have generated high rates of induced seismicity in Oklahoma. The extraction of natural gas from the Groningen gas field in The Netherlands has also generated very damaging earthquakes. In order to reduce the seismic activity, rates of injection and withdrawal have been reduced in these two cases. We show how nowcasting can be used to assess the success of these efforts. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Statistical physics of fracture and earthquakes’.

Probabilistic Moment Tensor Inversion for Hydrocarbon-Induced Seismicity in the Groningen Gas Field, the Netherlands, Part 2: Application

2020 ◽  
Vol 110 (5) ◽  
pp. 2112-2123 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bernard Dost ◽  
Annemijn van Stiphout ◽  
Daniela Kühn ◽  
Marloes Kortekaas ◽  
Elmer Ruigrok ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Induced Seismicity ◽  
Moment Tensor ◽  
Moment Tensor Inversion ◽  
Gas Field ◽  
Double Couple ◽  
Recent Developments ◽  
Inversion Procedure ◽  
Seismic Sections ◽  
The Moment ◽  
Groningen Gas Field

ABSTRACT Recent developments in the densification of the seismic network covering the Groningen gas field allow a more detailed study of the connection between induced seismicity and reactivated faults around the gas reservoir at 3 km depth. With the reduction of the average station distance from 20 km to 4–5 km, a probabilistic full-waveform moment tensor inversion procedure could be applied, resulting in both improved hypocenter location accuracy and full moment tensor solutions for events of M≥2.0 recorded in the period 2016–2019. Hypocenter locations as output from the moment tensor inversion are compared to locations from the application of other methods and are found similar within 250 m distance. Moment tensor results show that the double-couple (DC) solutions are in accordance with the known structure, namely normal faulting along 50°–70° dipping faults. Comparison with reprocessed 3D seismic sections, extended to a depth of 6–7 km, demonstrate that (a) most events occur along faults with a small throw and (b) reactivated faults in the reservoir often continue downward in the Carboniferous underburden. From non-DC contributions, the isotropic (ISO) component is dominant and shows consistent negative values, which is expected in a compacting medium. There is some indication that events connected to faults with a large throw (>70  m) exhibit the largest ISO component (40%–50%).

scholarly journals Clustering characteristics of gas-extraction induced seismicity in the Groningen gas field

2020 ◽  
Vol 221 (2) ◽  
pp. 879-892
Author(s):  
A G Muntendam-Bos
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Method ◽  
Induced Seismicity ◽  
Time And Space ◽  
Gas Field ◽  
Statistical Probability ◽  
Aftershock Sequences ◽  
Seismicity Rates ◽  
Background Seismicity ◽  
Intermediate Time ◽  
Groningen Gas Field

SUMMARY The Groningen gas field in the north of the Netherlands is one of the largest gas fields in the world. Since the early 1990s induced seismicity has been recorded. The largest magnitude event observed so far was a Mw = 3.6 event at the town of Huizinge in 2012. The risk posed by the induced events urged the necessity to build comprehensive seismological models capable of explaining the spatial-temporal distribution of the recorded seismicity and evaluating the regional seismic hazard and risk. The link between the occurrence of the seismicity and pressure depletion due to the production of the gas has been firmly established. However, the construction of comprehensive seismological models as well as hazard assessment is complicated by the fact that it is difficult to distinguish between induced and clustered events (events triggered by stress transfer of preceding, neighbouring events). This paper explores the contribution of clustered populations (i.e. aftershocks) to the Groningen induced seismic catalogue based on a statistical methodology in the time–space–magnitude domain. Specifically, the distributions of space–time distances between pairs of nearest-neighbour earthquakes, referred to as cluster style, is analysed. The cluster style of the Groningen induced seismicity is found to be very diffuse and characterized by a very low proportion of fore-/aftershock sequences and swarms (∼5 per cent) and a large proportion of repeater events (∼10 per cent). In contrast to human-induced seismicity in other regions, the background seismicity rate of Groningen is very low. Temporal variations in background seismicity rates can be related to changes in fault loading rates induced by gas production. Furthermore, a significant amount of independent, coincidental events (events occurring very close in time, but long distances apart) are observed. As the large gas field is fully connected, loading of the faults occurs roughly simultaneously throughout the field. Hence, the statistical probability of events occurring very close in time, but spatially far apart is significantly larger than in areas of fluid-injection induced seismicity The significant amount of repeaters and coincidental events cause an overabundance of events at intermediate time- and space-distances. This is further enhanced by the larger location errors in the catalogue increasing the estimated space-distance for non-relocated events. The diffusivity due to this overabundance of events at intermediate time- and space-distances, and the low-proportion of true fore-/aftershocks renders the statistical method used incapable of deriving a proper mode-separation value. However, this is not unique to this method. Any statistical method aimed at resolving two populations will break down if one of the populations analysed is too small. Hence, it is advisable to use caution when distinguishing fore-/aftershocks sequences or swarms for induced seismicity where the relative proportion of clustered events may be significantly lower than for tectonic events. In addition, given the small proportion of clustering and the general uncertainty in earthquake statistics, the results of this paper indicate that a distinction for earthquake risk modelling in Groningen is unnecessary.

Discrete Element Method modelling of Groningen reservoir compaction using a new contact model describing elastic and inelastic grain-scale interactions

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohammad Hadi Mehranpour ◽  
Suzanne J. T. Hangx ◽  
Chris J. Spiers
Keyword(s):  
Induced Seismicity ◽  
Inelastic Deformation ◽  
Field Measurements ◽  
Contact Model ◽  
Geophysical Research ◽  
Gas Field ◽  
Reservoir Compaction ◽  
Compaction Behavior ◽  
Groningen Gas Field

<p>Predicting reservoir compaction resulting from fluid depletion is important to assess potential hazards and risks associated with fluid production, such as surface subsidence and induced seismicity. Globally, many producing oil and gas fields are experiencing these phenomena. The giant Dutch Groningen gas field, the Netherlands, is currently measuring up to 35 cm of surface subsidence and experiencing widespread induced seismicity. To accurately predict reservoir compaction, reservoir-scale models incorporating realistic grain-scale microphysical processes are needed. As a first step towards that aim, Discrete Element Method (DEM) modeling can be used to predict the compaction behavior of granular materials at the cm/dm-scale, under a wide range of conditions representing realistic in-situ stress and pressure conditions.</p><p>Laboratory experiments on the reservoir of the Groningen gas field, the Slochteren sandstone, have shown elastic deformation, inelastic deformation due to clay film consolidation, and inelastic deformation due to grain sliding and grain failure. Since the available contact models for DEM modeling do not yet incorporate all of these grain-scale processes, a new contact model, the Slochteren sandstone contact model (SSCM), was developed to explicitly take these mechanisms into account and integrate them into Particle Flow Code (PFC), which is a powerful DEM approach.</p><p>In SSCM the blunt conical contact with an apex angle close to 180˚ is assumed to properly model the elastic behavior, as well as the grain failure mechanism. Compacting an assembly of particles with this type of contact model, results in a range of contact shapes, from point to long contacts, which is compatible with microstructural observations of Slochteren sandstone.  The deformation of thin intergranular clay coatings is implemented following the microphysical model proposed by Pijnenburg et al. (2019a).</p><p>The model allows for the systematic investigation of porosity, grain size distribution and intergranular clay film content on compaction behavior. The model was calibrated against a limited number of hydrostatic and deviatoric stress experiments (Pijnenburg et al. 2019b) and verified against an independent set of uniaxial compressive experiments (Hol et al. 2018) with a range of porosities, grain size distributions and clay content. The calibrated model was also used to make predictions of the compaction behavior of Slochteren sandstone. These predictions were compared to field measurements of in-situ compaction and showed an acceptable match if the uncertainties of field measurements are considered in calculations.</p><p>References:</p><p>Pijnenburg, R.P.J., Verberne, B.A., Hangx, S.J.T. and Spiers, C.J., 2019. Intergranular clay films control inelastic deformation in the Groningen gas reservoir: Evidence from split‐cylinder deformation tests. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth.</p><p>Pijnenburg, R.P.J., Verberne, B.A., Hangx, S.J.T. and Spiers, C.J., 2019. Inelastic deformation of the Slochteren sandstone: Stress‐strain relations and implications for induced seismicity in the Groningen gas field. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth.</p><p>Hol, S., van der Linden, A., Bierman, S., Marcelis, F. and Makurat, A., 2018. Rock physical controls on production-induced compaction in the Groningen Field. Scientific reports, 8(1), p.7156.</p>

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