Hydrological response of a Brazilian semi-arid catchment to different land use and climate change scenarios: a modelling study

2010 ◽  
Vol 24 (19) ◽  
pp. 2705-2723 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Montenegro ◽  
R. Ragab
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Hydrological Response ◽  
Semi Arid ◽  
Modelling Study

scholarly journals Assessment of the Water, Environmental, Economic and Social Vulnerability of a Watershed to the Potential Effects of Climate Change and Land Use Change

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (6) ◽  
pp. 1682
Author(s):  
Ismael Orozco ◽  
Adrián Martínez ◽  
Víctor Ortega
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Environmental Economic ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Arid Regions ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Distributed Hydrological Model ◽  
Semi Arid

In semi-arid regions, where hydrological resources are very vulnerable and where there are water shortages in many regions of the world, it is of great importance to assess the vulnerability that a system is facing or will face to the potential impacts of climatic changes and changes on the use of land. For that reason, this research focuses on evaluating the global vulnerability of a hydrological basin, taking into consideration these changes. Being different from the existing methodologies that assess the vulnerability, our methodology interconnects through a new interface a distributed hydrological model, global climate models, climate change scenarios, land use change scenarios and the largest number of system variables calculated with information from official sources. Another important point of our methodology is that it quantifies the global vulnerability of the system, taking into consideration hydrological, environmental, economic and social vulnerabilities. The results obtained show that the proposed methodology may provide a new approach to analyze vulnerability in semi-arid regions. Moreover, it made it possible to diagnose and establish that the greatest current and future vulnerabilities of the system are the result of activities in agricultural areas and urban centers.

Germination strategies under climate change scenarios along an aridity gradient

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 470-477
Author(s):  
Alexander Zogas ◽  
Evsey Kosman ◽  
Marcelo Sternberg
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Seed Banks ◽  
Arid Ecosystems ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Strong Impact ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Aridity Gradient ◽  
Soil Seed Banks ◽  
Seed Germinability ◽  
Semi Arid

Abstract Aims Climate change in the eastern Mediterranean region will have a strong impact on ecosystem functioning and plant community dynamics due to a reduction in annual rainfall and increased variability. We aim to understand the role of seed banks as potential buffers against climatic uncertainty determined by climate change. Methods We examined germination strategies of 18 common species present along an aridity gradient. Data were obtained from soil seed banks germinated during nine consecutive years from arid, semi-arid, Mediterranean and mesic Mediterranean ecosystems. At the semi-arid and Mediterranean sites, rainfall manipulations simulating 30% drought and 30% rainfall increase were applied. Germination strategies were tested under optimal irrigation conditions during three consecutive germination seasons to determine overall seed germinability in each soil sample. Changes in germination strategy were examined using a novel statistical approach that considers the climatic and biotic factors that may affect seed germinability. Important Findings The results showed that dominant species controlled their germination fractions by producing seeds with a different yearly germination fraction probability. The amount of rainfall under which the seeds were produced led to two major seed types with respect to germinability: high germinability, seeds leading to transient seed banks, and low germinability, seeds leading to persistent seed banks. We conclude that differential seed production among wet and dry years of both seed types creates a stable balance along the aridity gradient, enabling the soil seed bank to serve as a stabilizing mechanism buffering against rainfall unpredictability. Additionally, we present a general model of germination strategies of dominant annual species in Mediterranean and arid ecosystems that strengthens the notion of soil seed banks as buffers against climatic uncertainty induced by climate change in the region.

scholarly journals Projections of excess mortality related to diurnal temperature range under climate change scenarios: a multi-country modelling study

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (11) ◽  
pp. e512-e521
Author(s):  
Whanhee Lee ◽  
Yoonhee Kim ◽  
Francesco Sera ◽  
Antonio Gasparrini ◽  
Rokjin Park ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Diurnal Temperature Range ◽  
Excess Mortality ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Diurnal Temperature ◽  
Temperature Range ◽  
Modelling Study

Modelling Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU) in response to climate change scenarios for the SAARC nations

2020 ◽  
Vol 192 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ram Kumar Singh ◽  
Vinay Shankar Prasad Sinha ◽  
Pawan Kumar Joshi ◽  
Manoj Kumar
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios

scholarly journals Investigating Future Urbanization’s Impact on Local Climate under Different Climate Change Scenarios in MEGA-urban Regions: A Case Study of the Pearl River Delta, China

Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (7) ◽  
pp. 771
Author(s):  
Pak Shing Yeung ◽  
Jimmy Chi-Hung Fung ◽  
Chao Ren ◽  
Yong Xu ◽  
Kangning Huang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Pearl River Delta ◽  
Pearl River ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Local Climate ◽  
The Pearl River Delta ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Pearl River

Urbanization is one of the most significant contributing factors to anthropogenic climate change. However, a lack of projected city land use data has posed significant challenges to factoring urbanization into climate change modeling. Thus, the results from current models may contain considerable errors in estimating future climate scenarios. The Pearl River Delta region was selected as a case study to provide insight into how large-scale urbanization and different climate change scenarios impact the local climate. This study adopts projected land use data from freely available satellite imagery and applies dynamic simulation land use results to the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF). The simulation periods cover the summer periods in 2010 and 2029–2031, the latter of which is averaged to represent the year 2030. The WRF simulation used the observed local climate conditions in 2010 to represent the current scenario and the projected local climate changes for 2030 as the future scenario. Under all three future climate change scenarios, the warming trend is prominent (around 1–2 °C increase), with a widespread reduction in wind speed in inland areas (1–2 ms−1). The vulnerability of human health to thermal stress was evaluated by adopting the wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT). The results from the future scenarios suggest a high public health risk due to rising temperatures in the future. This study provides a methodology for a more comprehensive understanding of future urbanization and its impact on regional climate by using freely available satellite images and WRF simulation tools. The simulated temperature and WBGT results can serve local governments and stakeholders in city planning and the creation of action plans that will reduce the potential vulnerability of human health to excessive heat.

scholarly journals Long-Term Impacts of Partial Afforestation on Water and Salt Dynamics of an Intermittent Catchment under Climate Change

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 1067 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hossein Daneshmand ◽  
Sina Alaghmand ◽  
Matteo Camporese ◽  
Amin Talei ◽  
Pat J.-F. Yeh ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Soil Salinization ◽  
Tree Planting ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Global Environmental ◽  
Salt Depletion ◽  
Hadley Centre ◽  
Semi Arid

Soil salinization is a major environmental issue in arid and semi-arid regions, and has been accelerated in some areas by removal of native vegetation cover. Partial afforestation can be a practical mitigation strategy if efficiently integrated with farms and pastures. Using an integrated surface-subsurface hydrological model, this study evaluates the water and salt dynamics and soil salinization conditions of a rural intermittent catchment in the semi-arid climate of southeast Australia subjected to four different partial afforestation configurations under different climate change scenarios, as predicted by several general circulation models. The results show that the locations of afforested areas can induce a retarding effect in the outflow of groundwater salt, with tree planting at lower elevations showing the steadier salt depletion rates. Moreover, except for the configuration with trees planted near the outlet of the catchment, the streamflow is maintained under all other configurations. It appears that under both Representative Concentration Pathways considered (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5), the Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model represents the fastest salt export scheme, whereas the Canadian Earth System Model and the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate represent the slowest salt export scheme. Overall, it is found that the location of partial afforestation generally plays a more significant role than the climate change scenarios.

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