Modelling hydrological response to different land‐use and climate change scenarios in the Zamu River basin of northwest China

2008 ◽  
Vol 22 (14) ◽  
pp. 2502-2510 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sufen Wang ◽  
Shaozhong Kang ◽  
Lu Zhang ◽  
Fusheng Li
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Northwest China ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Hydrological Response

scholarly journals Land use and climate change impacts on the hydrology of the upper Mara River Basin, Kenya: results of a modeling study to support better resource management

2011 ◽  
Vol 15 (7) ◽  
pp. 2245-2258 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. M. Mango ◽  
A. M. Melesse ◽  
M. E. McClain ◽  
D. Gann ◽  
S. G. Setegn
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
East Africa ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Management Practices ◽  
Cultural Landscapes ◽  
Dry Season ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Resource Managers

Abstract. Some of the most valued natural and cultural landscapes on Earth lie in river basins that are poorly gauged and have incomplete historical climate and runoff records. The Mara River Basin of East Africa is such a basin. It hosts the internationally renowned Mara-Serengeti landscape as well as a rich mixture of indigenous cultures. The Mara River is the sole source of surface water to the landscape during the dry season and periods of drought. During recent years, the flow of the Mara River has become increasingly erratic, especially in the upper reaches, and resource managers are hampered by a lack of understanding of the relative influence of different sources of flow alteration. Uncertainties about the impacts of future climate change compound the challenges. We applied the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to investigate the response of the headwater hydrology of the Mara River to scenarios of continued land use change and projected climate change. Under the data-scarce conditions of the basin, model performance was improved using satellite-based estimated rainfall data, which may also improve the usefulness of runoff models in other parts of East Africa. The results of the analysis indicate that any further conversion of forests to agriculture and grassland in the basin headwaters is likely to reduce dry season flows and increase peak flows, leading to greater water scarcity at critical times of the year and exacerbating erosion on hillslopes. Most climate change projections for the region call for modest and seasonally variable increases in precipitation (5–10 %) accompanied by increases in temperature (2.5–3.5 °C). Simulated runoff responses to climate change scenarios were non-linear and suggest the basin is highly vulnerable under low (−3 %) and high (+25 %) extremes of projected precipitation changes, but under median projections (+7 %) there is little impact on annual water yields or mean discharge. Modest increases in precipitation are partitioned largely to increased evapotranspiration. Overall, model results support the existing efforts of Mara water resource managers to protect headwater forests and indicate that additional emphasis should be placed on improving land management practices that enhance infiltration and aquifer recharge as part of a wider program of climate change adaptation.

scholarly journals Assessment of hydrological response in Subarnarekha river basin under anticipated climate change scenarios

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Climate Modelling ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Hydrological Response ◽  
Study Region ◽  
Subarnarekha River ◽  
Subarnarekha River Basin

<p>Two hydrological climate modelling techniques, general circulation model (GCM) and hypothetical climate change scenarios, were used to analyse the hydrological response to the anticipated climate change scenarios in the Subarnarekha river basin in Eastern India. Both models verified individually for the same river basin and a comparative performance of the models was evaluated to relate the two models for the near (2014-2040) period climate. The hydrological response under the anticipated climate change in the Subarnarekha river basin is well assessed by GCM under the RCP 8.5 scenarios compared to the RCPs 4.5. Results indicate GCM best suited over the hypothetical climate change scenarios as GCM has demonstrated their potential in accurately reproducing the past observed climatic changes. The strong performance of the hypothetical climate change scenarios model, particularly for warming climate scenarios, suggests that it may have distinct advantages for the analysis of water balance components in the river basin. The monthly streamflows of Subarnarekha river basin was simulated using a total of 14 years (2000-2013) daily observed streamflow data in the ArcSWAT model integrated with model calibration and uncertainty analysis by means of SUFI-2 algorithm. The results indicate during the calibration the coefficient of determination (R2) and Nash-Sutcliff Efficiency (NSE) were reported as 0.98 and 0.97, respectively, while during the validation the R2 and NSE were obtained as 0.94 and 0.94, respectively, confirms the hydrological model performance was very good both in calibration and validation. The obtained climate change water impact index (ICCWI) values reveal the Subarnarekha river basin is more responsive to climate change. The reduction in precipitation along with the significant warming under the projected future climate is likely to reduce availability of water substantially in the study region. This work would be useful for the effective management of water resources for sustainable agriculture and in mitigating natural hazards such as droughts and floods in the study region.</p>

scholarly journals Assessing the Effectiveness of Mitigation Strategies for Flood Risk Reduction in the Segamat River Basin, Malaysia

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (6) ◽  
pp. 3286
Author(s):  
Yuk San Liew ◽  
Safari Mat Desa ◽  
Md. Nasir Md. Noh ◽  
Mou Leong Tan ◽  
Nor Azazi Zakaria ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Rainwater Harvesting ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Tropical Region ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Detention Ponds ◽  
River Modeling

Flooding is a frequent, naturally recurring phenomenon worldwide that can become disastrous if not addressed accordingly. This paper aims to evaluate the impacts of land use change and climate change on flooding in the Segamat River Basin, Johor, Malaysia, with 1D–2D hydrodynamic river modeling, using InfoWorks Integrated Catchment Modeling (ICM). The study involved the development of flood maps for four different scenarios: (1) future land use in 2030; (2) the impacts of climate change; (3) three mitigation strategies comprising detention ponds, rainwater harvesting systems (RWHSs), and permeable pavers; and (4) a combination of these three mitigation strategies. The obtained results show increases in the flood peaks under both the land use change and climate change scenarios. With the anticipated increase in development activities within the vicinity up to 2030, the overall impact of urbanization on the extent of flooding would be rather moderate, as the upper and middle parts of the basin would still be dominated by forests and agricultural activities (approximately 81.13%). In contrast, the potential flood-inundated area is expected to increase from 12.25% to 16.64% under storms of 10-, 50-, 100-, and 1000-year average recurrence intervals (ARI). Interestingly, the simulation results suggest that only the detention pond mitigation strategy has a considerable impact on reducing floods, while the other two mitigation strategies have less flood reduction advantages for this agricultural-based rural basin located in a tropical region.

scholarly journals Evaluation of water productivity under climate change in irrigated areas of the arid Northwest China using an assemble statistical downscaling method and an agro-hydrological model

2018 ◽  
Vol 379 ◽  
pp. 393-402
Author(s):  
Liu Liu ◽  
Zezhong Guo ◽  
Guanhua Huang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Statistical Downscaling ◽  
Arid Region ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Water Productivity ◽  
Northwest China ◽  
Heihe River ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Increasing Trend

Abstract. The Heihe River Basin (HRB) is the second largest inland river basin, located in the arid region of Northwest China with a serious water shortage. Evaluation of water productivity will provide scientific implications for agricultural water-saving in irrigated areas of the arid region under climate change. Based on observed meteorological data, 23 GCMs outputs and the ERA-40 reanalysis data, an assemble statistical downscaling model was developed to generate climate change scenarios under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5 respectively, which were then used to drive the SWAP-EPIC model to simulate crop growth in the irrigated areas of the middle HRB for the future period from 2018 to 2047. Crop yield showed an increasing trend, while crop water consumption decreased gradually in Gaotai and Ganzhou irrigated areas. The water productivity in future 30 years showed an increasing trend in both Gaotai and Ganzhou areas, with the most significant increase under RCP4.5 scenario, which were both larger than 2 kg m−3. Compared with that of the period from 2012 to 2015, the water productivity during 2018–2047 under three RCP scenarios increased by 9.2, 14.3 and 11.8 % in the Gaotai area, and 15.4, 21.6, 19.9 % in the Ganzhou area, respectively.

Hydrological response to land use scenarios under climate change. Adaptation measures for an agricultural basin: Rapel river basin in central Chile.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
María José González Molina ◽  
Haydee Ximena Vargas Mesa ◽  
Nicolás Vásquez Placencia
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Agricultural Land ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Agricultural Activity ◽  
Hydrological Response ◽  
Central Chile ◽  
Land Use Scenarios ◽  
The Future

&lt;p&gt;Faced to reduced future water availability, associated with climate change variability and population growth, it becomes important to study the hydrological response under various modifications of crop patterns currently present in an agricultural basin in Chile. The focus of this research is to improve the future water resources management knowing the behavior of the hydrological cycle under meteorological forcings during the historical period 1985 to 2015.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;We selected the Rapel River basin, in Central Chile, with a relevant agricultural activity and high water consumption in the study area.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;VIC (Variable Infiltration Capacity) hydrological model, was calibrated considering base land use and historical records determined with the product CR2Met (www.cr2.cl/datos-productos-grillados/) for a grid with cells of 5 km by 5 km. For the near future (2030-2060) we proposed agricultural land use scenarios, considering a set of 40 crops that are representative of the area. The variation of the future forcings was considered according to the climate change scenario RCP 8.5 for four Global Climate Models (CCSM4, CSIRO, IPSAL, and MIROC).&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Results show the variation in evapotranspiration demand and runoff, according to crop class and geographical ubication. An important variation of both flows is revealed, which is mainly related to the class of crop.&amp;#160; For this reason, the selection of crops determines a specific hydrological response, so the study of the change in land use is crucial. Based on the hydrologic response of each class of crop over the basin, &amp;#160;crop arrays were obtained and patterns are recommended for future scenarios. The arrays consider the optimal location of the crop, which reduces evapotranspiration demand and increases runoff. Also, changes in the percentage of the cultivated area of each crop class are recommended.&lt;/p&gt;

The Response of Agricultural Water Demand to Climate Change in Shiyang River Basin, in Northwest China

2011 ◽  
Vol 347-353 ◽  
pp. 1964-1972
Author(s):  
Hua Qi Wang ◽  
Mao Sheng Zhang ◽  
Xue Ya Dang ◽  
Hua Zhu
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Water Demand ◽  
Northwest China ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Positive Correlation ◽  
Shiyang River Basin ◽  
Precipitation Decrease ◽  
Guarantee Rate ◽  
Agriculture Water

This paper reports on the method of linking climate change scenarios with hydrologic and agricultural theory to study agriculture water demand under changing climate conditions, which is applied in Shiyang River basin, in Northwest China. We calculate agriculture water demand by use of Penman-Monteith formula and field water balance theory, droved by climate factors. This paper concludes that, the response of agriculture water demand to climate change exists, but the climate change can’t vary the basic law of water resources system; reference evapotranspiration (ET0) and temperature represent positive correlation, moreover, agriculture water demand and temperature also exist positive correlation, however, agriculture water demand and precipitation show the evident negative correlation; the influence of agriculture water demand which induced by temperature increase or decrease 1°C is larger than that induced by precipitation increasing or decreasing 10%; the influence range of agriculture water demand which induced by precipitation decrease is larger than that induced by precipitation increase; the influence range of agriculture water demand which induced in the guarantee rate of 75% is larger than that which induced in the guarantee rate of 50%; in additionally, the influence range of agriculture water demand in 2020 is larger than that in 2010. Therefore, in these relatively water shortage areas, changes in agriculture water demand due to climate change will require timely improvement in crop cultivars, irrigation and drainage technology, and water management.

scholarly journals Land-use change may exacerbate climate change impacts on water resources in the Ganges basin

2017 ◽  
pp. 1-33
Author(s):  
Gina Tsarouchi ◽  
Wouter Buytaert
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Surface Model ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Northern India

Quantifying how land-use change and climate change affect water resources is a challenge in hydrological science. The Upper Ganges (UG) river basin in northern India experiences monsoon flooding almost every year. Studies have shown evidence of strong coupling between the land surface (soil moisture) and atmosphere (precipitation) in northern India, which means that regional climate variations and changes in land use/cover could influence the temporal dynamics of land-atmosphere interactions. <br><br> This work aims to quantify how future projections of land-use and climate change are affecting the hydrological response of the UG river basin. Two different sets of modelling experiments were run using the JULES Land Surface Model and covering the period 2000&amp;ndash;2035: In the first set, climate change is taken into account, as JULES was driven by the CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) outputs of 21 models, under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 &amp; RCP8.5), whilst land use was kept constant at year 2010. In the second set, both climate change and land-use change were taken into consideration, as apart from the CMIP5 model outputs, JULES was also forced with a time-series of 15 future land-use scenarios, based on Landsat satellite imagery and Markov chain simulation. Variations in hydrological variables (stream flow, evapotranspiration and soil moisture) are calculated during the simulation period. <br><br> Significant changes in the near-future (years 2030&amp;ndash;2035) hydrologic fluxes arise under future land cover and climate change scenarios pointing towards a severe increase in high extremes of flow: the multi-model mean of the 95th percentile of streamflow [Q<sub>5</sub>] is projected to increase by 63&amp;thinsp;% under the combined land-use and climate change high emissions scenario [RCP8.5]. The changes in all examined hydrological components are greater in the combined land-use and climate change experiment. <br><br> Results are further presented in a water resources context, aiming to address potential implications of climate change from a water-demand perspective, highlighting that that demand thresholds in the UG region are projected to be exceeded in the future winter months (Dec&amp;ndash;Feb).

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