Response relationship between the abrupt temperature change‐climate warming hiatus and changes in influencing factors in China

Author(s):  
Xing Huang ◽  
Long Ma ◽  
Tingxi Liu ◽  
Bolin Sun ◽  
Yang Chen ◽  
...  

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin B. Stolpe ◽  
Kevin Cowtan ◽  
Iselin Medhaug ◽  
Reto Knutti

Abstract Global mean temperature change simulated by climate models deviates from the observed temperature increase during decadal-scale periods in the past. In particular, warming during the ‘global warming hiatus’ in the early twenty-first century appears overestimated in CMIP5 and CMIP6 multi-model means. We examine the role of equatorial Pacific variability in these divergences since 1950 by comparing 18 studies that quantify the Pacific contribution to the ‘hiatus’ and earlier periods and by investigating the reasons for differing results. During the ‘global warming hiatus’ from 1992 to 2012, the estimated contributions differ by a factor of five, with multiple linear regression approaches generally indicating a smaller contribution of Pacific variability to global temperature than climate model experiments where the simulated tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) or wind stress anomalies are nudged towards observations. These so-called pacemaker experiments suggest that the ‘hiatus’ is fully explained and possibly over-explained by Pacific variability. Most of the spread across the studies can be attributed to two factors: neglecting the forced signal in tropical Pacific SST, which is often the case in multiple regression studies but not in pacemaker experiments, underestimates the Pacific contribution to global temperature change by a factor of two during the ‘hiatus’; the sensitivity with which the global temperature responds to Pacific variability varies by a factor of two between models on a decadal time scale, questioning the robustness of single model pacemaker experiments. Once we have accounted for these factors, the CMIP5 mean warming adjusted for Pacific variability reproduces the observed annual global mean temperature closely, with a correlation coefficient of 0.985 from 1950 to 2018. The CMIP6 ensemble performs less favourably but improves if the models with the highest transient climate response are omitted from the ensemble mean.



Trees ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 34 (1) ◽  
pp. 199-212
Author(s):  
Lingnan Zhang ◽  
Rui Wang ◽  
Xianfeng Liu ◽  
Yilin Ran ◽  
Shu Shang ◽  
...  


2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 192-207 ◽  
Author(s):  
Long Ma ◽  
Hongyu Li ◽  
Tingxi Liu ◽  
Longteng Liang


2017 ◽  
Vol 133 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 579-594 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiubao Sun ◽  
Guoyu Ren ◽  
Yuyu Ren ◽  
Yihe Fang ◽  
Yulian Liu ◽  
...  




Forests ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (9) ◽  
pp. 712
Author(s):  
Bin Wang ◽  
Pengtao Yu ◽  
Lei Zhang ◽  
Yanhui Wang ◽  
Yipeng Yu ◽  
...  

Tree growth strongly responds to climate change, especially in semiarid mountainous areas. In recent decades, China has experienced dramatic climate warming; however, after 2000 the warming trend substantially slowed (indicative of a warming hiatus) in the semiarid areas of China. The responses of tree growth in respect to elevation during this warming hiatus are poorly understood. Here, we present the responses of Qinghai spruce (Picea crassifolia Kom.) growth to warming using a stand-total sampling strategy along an elevational gradient spanning seven plots in the Qilian Mountains. The results indicate that tree growth experienced a decreasing trend from 1980 to 2000 at all elevations, and the decreasing trend slowed with increasing elevation (i.e., a downward trend from −10.73 mm2 year−1 of the basal area increment (BAI) at 2800 m to −3.48 mm2 year−1 of BAI at 3300 m), with an overall standard deviation (STD) of 2.48 mm2 year−1. However, this trend reversed to an increasing trend after 2000, and the increasing trends at the low (2550–2900 m, 0.27–5.07 mm2 year−1 of BAI, p > 0.23) and middle (3000–3180 m, 2.08–2.46 mm2 year−1 of BAI, p > 0.2) elevations were much weaker than at high elevations (3300 m, 23.56 mm2 year−1 of BAI, p < 0.01). From 2000–2013, the difference in tree growth with elevation was much greater than in other sub-periods, with an overall STD of 7.69 mm2 year−1. The stronger drought conditions caused by dramatic climate warming dominated the decreased tree growth during 1980–2000, and the water deficit in the 2550–3180 m range was stronger than at 3300 m, which explained the serious negative trend in tree growth at low and middle elevations. After 2000, the warming hiatus was accompanied by increases in precipitation, which formed a wetting–warming climate. Although moisture availability was still a dominant limiting factor of tree growth, the relieved drought pressure might be the main reason for the recent recovery in the tree growth at middle and low elevations. Moreover, the increasing temperature significantly promoted tree growth at 3300 m, with a correlation coefficient between the temperature and BAI of 0.77 (p < 0.01). Our results implied that climate change drove different growth patterns at different elevations, which sheds light into forest management under the estimated future climate warming: those trees in low and middle elevations should be paid more attention with respect to maintaining tree growth, while high elevations could be a more suitable habitat for this species.



2015 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Anmin Duan ◽  
Zhixiang Xiao


2020 ◽  
Vol 27 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Xing Huang ◽  
Long Ma ◽  
Tingxi Liu ◽  
Bolin Sun ◽  
Ying Zhou ◽  
...  


2020 ◽  
Vol 27 (16) ◽  
pp. 19703-19713
Author(s):  
Jing He ◽  
Jingjie Xie ◽  
Derong Su ◽  
Zhirong Zheng ◽  
Zhaoyan Diao ◽  
...  


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