Long‐term mean changes in actual evapotranspiration over China under climate warming and the attribution analysis within the Budyko framework

AbstractClimate change impacts biodiversity and is driving range shifts of species and populations across the globe. To understand the effects of climate warming on biota, long-term observations of the occurrence of species and detailed knowledge on their ecology and life-history is crucial. Mountain species particularly suffer under climate warming and often respond to environmental changes by altitudinal range shifts. We assessed long-term distribution trends of mountain butterflies across the eastern Alps and calculated species’ specific annual range shifts based on field observations and species distribution models, counterbalancing the potential drawbacks of both approaches. We also compiled details on the ecology, behaviour and life-history, and the climate niche of each species assessed. We found that the highest altitudinal maxima were observed recently in the majority of cases, while the lowest altitudes of observations were recorded before 1980. Mobile and generalist species with a broad ecological amplitude tended to move uphill more than specialist and sedentary species. As main drivers we identified climatic conditions and topographic variables, such as insolation and solar irradiation. This study provides important evidence for responses of high mountain taxa to rapid climate change. Our study underlines the advantage of combining historical surveys and museum collection data with cutting-edge analyses.

Download Full-text

Changing forest water yields in response to climate warming: results from long‐term experimental watershed sites across North America

Global Change Biology ◽

10.1111/gcb.12615 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 20 (10) ◽

pp. 3191-3208 ◽

Cited By ~ 82

Author(s):

Irena F. Creed ◽

Adam T. Spargo ◽

Julia A. Jones ◽

Jim M. Buttle ◽

Mary B. Adams ◽

...

Keyword(s):

North America ◽

Climate Warming

Download Full-text

Climate change impacts the protective effect of forests: A case study in Switzerland

10.21203/rs.3.rs-346221/v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Christine Moos ◽

Antoine Guisan ◽

Christophe F. Randin ◽

Heike Lischke

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Protective Effect ◽

Climate Warming ◽

Swiss Alps ◽

Present Species ◽

Future Research ◽

Change Scenario ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Ground Truth Data

Abstract In steep terrain, forests play an important role as natural means of protection against natural hazards, such as rockfall. Due to climate warming, significant changes in the protection service of these forests have to be expected in future. Shifts of current to more drought adapted species may result in temporary or even irreversible losses in the risk reduction provided by these forests. In this study, we assessed how the protective effect against rockfall of a protection forest in the western part of the Valais in the Swiss Alps may change in future, by combining dynamic forest modelling with a quantitative risk analysis. Current and future forest development was modelled with the spatially explicit forest model TreeMig for a moderate (RCP4.5) and an extreme (RCP8.5) climate change scenario. The simulated forest scenarios were compared to ground-truth data from the current forest complex. We quantified the protective effect of the different forest scenarios based on the reduction of rockfall risk for people and infrastructure at the bottom of the slope. Rockfall risk was calculated on the basis of three-dimensional rockfall simulations. The forest simulations predicted a clear decrease in basal area of most of the currently present species in future. The forest turned into a Q. pubescens dominated forest, for both climate scenarios, and mixed with P. sylvestris in RCP4.5. F. sylvatica completely disappeared in RCP8.5. With climate warming, a clear increase in risk is expected for both climate change scenarios. In the long-term (> 100 years), a stabilization of risk, or even a slight decline may be expected due to an increase in biomass of the trees. The results of this study further indicate that regular forest interventions may promote regeneration and thus accelerate the shift in species distribution. Future research should address the long-term effect of different forest management strategies on the protection service of forests under climate change.

Download Full-text

Evolution of the thermal state of permafrost under climate warming in Central Yakutia

The Holocene ◽

10.1177/0959683619855959 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 29 (9) ◽

pp. 1401-1410 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Stepan P Varlamov ◽

Yuri B Skachkov ◽

Pavel N Skryabin

Keyword(s):

Heat Exchange ◽

Active Layer ◽

Climate Warming ◽

Thermal State ◽

Thermal Response ◽

Snow Accumulation ◽

Climatic Fluctuations ◽

Exchange Layer ◽

Central Yakutia

The relevance of the problem under review is explained by the need to study the thermal response of permafrost to the modern climate change. Evolution of the thermal state of grounds has been studied with a view to evaluate the effects of modern climate warming on permafrost in Central Yakutia. The leading method to study this problem is the arrangement and performance of long-term monitoring observations of the permafrost thermal state that enable quantitative evaluation of the thermal response of upper permafrost layers to climatic fluctuations of recent decades. The analysis of long-term records from weather stations in the region has clearly revealed one of the highest increasing trends in the mean annual air temperature in northern Russia. Quantitative relationships in the long-term variability of ground thermal parameters, such as ground temperature at the bottom of the active layer, at the bottom of the annual heat exchange layer, and active thaw depth, have been established. The thermal state dynamics of the annual heat exchange layer under climate warming indicates that both warm and cold permafrost are thermally stable. Short-term variability of the snow accumulation regime is the main factor controlling the thermal state of the ground in permafrost landscapes. The active-layer thickness is characterized by low interannual variability and exhibits little response to climate warming, with no statistically meaningful increasing or decreasing trend. The results of ground thermal monitoring can be extended to similar landscapes in the region, providing a reliable basis for predicting heat transfer in natural landscapes.

Download Full-text

Microspatial Differences in Soil Temperature Cause Phenology Change on Par with Long-Term Climate Warming in Salt Marshes

Ecosystems ◽

10.1007/s10021-019-00418-1 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 23 (3) ◽

pp. 498-510

Author(s):

Jessica L. O’Connell ◽

Merryl Alber ◽

Steven C. Pennings

Keyword(s):

Soil Temperature ◽

Climate Warming ◽

Salt Marshes

Download Full-text

Climate-driven declines in arthropod abundance restructure a rainforest food web

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences ◽

10.1073/pnas.1722477115 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 115 (44) ◽

pp. E10397-E10406 ◽

Cited By ~ 203

Author(s):

Bradford C. Lister ◽

Andres Garcia

Keyword(s):

Food Web ◽

Climate Warming ◽

Southern Oscillation ◽

Dry Weight ◽

Extinction Rates ◽

Long Term Ecological Research ◽

Maximum Temperatures ◽

Forest Arthropods ◽

Arthropod Abundance

A number of studies indicate that tropical arthropods should be particularly vulnerable to climate warming. If these predictions are realized, climate warming may have a more profound impact on the functioning and diversity of tropical forests than currently anticipated. Although arthropods comprise over two-thirds of terrestrial species, information on their abundance and extinction rates in tropical habitats is severely limited. Here we analyze data on arthropod and insectivore abundances taken between 1976 and 2012 at two midelevation habitats in Puerto Rico’s Luquillo rainforest. During this time, mean maximum temperatures have risen by 2.0 °C. Using the same study area and methods employed by Lister in the 1970s, we discovered that the dry weight biomass of arthropods captured in sweep samples had declined 4 to 8 times, and 30 to 60 times in sticky traps. Analysis of long-term data on canopy arthropods and walking sticks taken as part of the Luquillo Long-Term Ecological Research program revealed sustained declines in abundance over two decades, as well as negative regressions of abundance on mean maximum temperatures. We also document parallel decreases in Luquillo’s insectivorous lizards, frogs, and birds. While El Niño/Southern Oscillation influences the abundance of forest arthropods, climate warming is the major driver of reductions in arthropod abundance, indirectly precipitating a bottom-up trophic cascade and consequent collapse of the forest food web.

Download Full-text

Long-term limnological changes in the Ecuadorian páramo: Comparing the ecological responses to climate warming of shallow waterbodies versus deep lakes

Freshwater Biology ◽

10.1111/fwb.13159 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 63 (10) ◽

pp. 1316-1325 ◽

Cited By ~ 11

Author(s):

Mark P. Giles ◽

Neal Michelutti ◽

Christopher Grooms ◽

John P. Smol

Keyword(s):

Climate Warming ◽

Deep Lakes ◽

Ecological Responses

Download Full-text