Optimal dividend problems with a risk probability criterion

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xin Wen ◽  
Xianping Guo ◽  
Li Xia
Keyword(s):  
Optimal Dividend ◽  
Risk Probability ◽  
Probability Criterion

scholarly journals SAT0082 FRAX AND DAS IN MOROCCAN RHEUMATOID ARTHRITIS PATIENTS

2020 ◽  
Vol 79 (Suppl 1) ◽  
pp. 975.1-975
Author(s):  
H. Azzouzi ◽  
O. Lamkhanat ◽  
I. Linda
Keyword(s):  
Rheumatoid Arthritis ◽  
Fracture Risk ◽  
Disease Activity ◽  
Descriptive Analysis ◽  
Cross Sectional Study ◽  
Fracture Probability ◽  
Mineral Density ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Risk Probability ◽  
Fracture Assessment

Background:Rheumatoid Arthritis (RA) is one of the risk factors for the calculation of the 10 years fracture probability assessed by the FRAX tool.Objectives:The aim was to study the association of disease activity and the 10 year fracture risk probability by the FRAX tool in our RA patients and their impact on fracture prevalence.Methods:Cross-sectional study of the association FRAX and disease activity score (DAS 28 CRP) was designed. Patients with RA were included. Mean DAS was calculated for each patient adjusted on his follow-up duration. Data about patients (demographic, disease characteristics and fracture assessment) were collected. The 10 year fracture risk probability for major osteoporotic fracture was calculated with and without BMD (bone mineral density) using the FRAX tool for Morocco. Descriptive analysis and regressions were performed with SPSS.20. p<0.05 was considered significant.Results:One hundred and ninety nine RA patients were included with mean age of 55.5±12 years. Women represented 91% and 40.1% had osteoporosis. Remission was observed in 86.4% with 95.5% taking methotrexate. 17.1% had vertebral fractures. FRAX and DAS were associated (p=0.03), and both explained vertebral fracture (VF) prevalence. When adjusted on disease parameters, FRAX with and without BMD explained the vertebral prevalence (p=0.02, OR=1.09[1.01-1.19]). However, age remains the only predictor of VF when adjusted on osteoporosis factors (DAS28CRP, menopause, BMI, smoking, diabetes, gender, steroid use, HAQ) and FRAX BMD.Conclusion:Persistent disease activity was associated to high 10 year fracture risk probability calculated by the FRAX tool in RA.Disclosure of Interests:None declared

scholarly journals A Satisficing Framework for Environmental Policy Under Model Uncertainty

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stergios Athanasoglou ◽  
Valentina Bosetti ◽  
Laurent Drouet
Keyword(s):  
Environmental Policy ◽  
Model Uncertainty ◽  
Probability Distributions ◽  
Success Probability ◽  
Economic Assessment ◽  
Decision Criterion ◽  
Probability Criterion ◽  
Change Context ◽  
Future Consumption ◽  
Point Of Departure

AbstractWe propose a novel framework for the economic assessment of environmental policy. Our main point of departure from existing work is the adoption of a satisficing, as opposed to optimizing, modeling approach. Along these lines, we place primary emphasis on the extent to which different policies meet a set of goals at a specific future date instead of their performance vis-a-vis some intertemporal objective function. Consistent to the nature of environmental policymaking, our model takes explicit account of model uncertainty. To this end, the decision criterion we propose is an analog of the well-known success-probability criterion adapted to settings characterized by model uncertainty. We apply our criterion to the climate-change context and the probability distributions constructed by Drouet et al. (2015) linking carbon budgets to future consumption. Insights from computational geometry facilitate computations considerably and allow for the efficient application of the model in high-dimensional settings.

scholarly journals Optimal Dividend and Capital Injection Problem with Transaction Cost and Salvage Value: The Case of Excess-of-Loss Reinsurance Based on the Symmetry of Risk Information

Symmetry ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (7) ◽  
pp. 276 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qingyou Yan ◽  
Le Yang ◽  
Tomas Baležentis ◽  
Dalia Streimikiene ◽  
Chao Qin
Keyword(s):  
Transaction Cost ◽  
Risk Information ◽  
Insurance Company ◽  
Optimal Control Strategy ◽  
Ruin Time ◽  
Discounted Cost ◽  
Capital Injection ◽  
Surplus Process ◽  
Optimal Dividend ◽  
A Company

This paper considers the optimal dividend and capital injection problem for an insurance company, which controls the risk exposure by both the excess-of-loss reinsurance and capital injection based on the symmetry of risk information. Besides the proportional transaction cost, we also incorporate the fixed transaction cost incurred by capital injection and the salvage value of a company at the ruin time in order to make the surplus process more realistic. The main goal is to maximize the expected sum of the discounted salvage value and the discounted cumulative dividends except for the discounted cost of capital injection until the ruin time. By considering whether there is capital injection in the surplus process, we construct two instances of suboptimal models and then solve for the corresponding solution in each model. Lastly, we consider the optimal control strategy for the general model without any restriction on the capital injection or the surplus process.

scholarly journals Investigation of Botrytis Cinerea Risk Forecasting Model of Strawberry in Lithuania

2013 ◽  
Vol 67 (2) ◽  
pp. 195-198 ◽  
Author(s):  
Neringa Rasiukevičiūtė ◽  
Alma Valiuškaitė ◽  
Elena Survilienė-Radzevičė ◽  
Skaidrė Supronienė
Keyword(s):  
Disease Management ◽  
Botrytis Cinerea ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Grey Mould ◽  
Management Systems ◽  
Forecasting Model ◽  
Leaf Wetness ◽  
Risk Of Infection ◽  
Risk Forecasting ◽  
Risk Probability

Grey mould, caused by Botrytis cinerea Pers.:Fr. is one of the most important strawberry diseases in Lithuania, like in other countries, where strawberries are grown. The efficiency of different disease management systems were analyzed at the Institute of Horticulture in 2010-2011. The B. cinerea risk probability at various regions of Lithuania was analyzed according to iMETOS ®sm grey mould risk forecasting model. Strawberry grey mould risk forecasting model indicates the risk of infection periods on the basis of the interaction between air temperature and leaf wetness duration. The model calculates how favourable is the period for the risk of infection. In periods where the risk is consistent (more than three days), higher than 60 points, a spray against grey mould should be applied. iMETOS®sm grey mould risk forecasting model gives the opportunity to optimize the usage of fungicides and reduce the number of applications and allows more efficient, ecologically and economically accepted control of strawberries grey mould.

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