Corporate risk-taking after changes in credit rating

PurposeThe paper aims to investigate corporate risk-taking following changes in firms' credit ratings (CR) and the mechanisms the firms use in implementing the risk-taking.Design/methodology/approachThe paper employs fixed-effect regression models to examine risk-taking behaviour after firms experience changes in CR after their ratings are downgraded to the lower edge of the investment grade rating (i.e. BBB-) and after their CRs are downgraded below the investment rating.FindingsThe paper finds that, whilst in general, changes in CR are negatively associated with post-event risk-taking, firms downgraded to BBB- do not increase their risk-taking. Only when firms are rated below this grade, firms significantly increase their risk-taking, suggesting that the association between downgrades in CR and firm risk-taking following the event is not linear. Further analysis suggests that these downgraded firms do not increase research and development (R&D) expenses or capital expenditures but employ long-term debt as their risk-taking mechanism.Practical implicationsThe findings of the paper have practical implications for investors considering investing in downgraded-rating firms to shareholders of such firms and especially to those overseeing the firms' risk-taking policies.Originality/valueThe study fills the gap in the literature by providing empirical evidence on corporate risk-taking after changes in CR and also contributes to the optimal debt-maturity choice literature.

Risk Assessment of Alpine Skiing Events Based on Knowledge Graph: A Focus on Meteorological Conditions

The alpine skiing event is particularly vulnerable to changes in meteorological conditions as a winter sport held outdoors. The commonly used risk assessment methods cannot be inflexible and cannot be dynamically adjusted to combine multiple risk factors and actual conditions. A knowledge graph can organize data resources in the risk domain as structured knowledge systems. This paper combines a knowledge graph and risk assessment to effectively assess the risk status. First of all, we introduce the relevant literature review of sports event risk assessment, combining the characteristics of alpine skiing events. Then, we summarize the risk types of alpine skiing events and related risk knowledge. Secondly, a model is proposed to introduce an event risk assessment model based on the RippleNet framework combined with the characteristics of large-scale sports events. Moreover, the validity of the model is verified. The results show that the RippleNet-based event risk assessment model can be used to assess the risk of alpine skiing events. In order to effectively deal with the large-scale sports events that occur with a variety of risks, the smooth implementation of large-scale sports events provides a strong guarantee.

Comprehensive Risk Management in Passive Buildings Projects

Nowadays, we can observe a growing interest in passive buildings due to global climate change, environmental concerns, and growing energy costs. However, developing a passive building is associated with meeting many Passive House requirements, which results in their increased complexity as well as many challenges and risks which could threaten the successful completion of the project. Risk management is a key tool enabling meeting today’s challenging passive house project’s demands connected with quality, costs, deadlines, and legal issues. In this paper, a new model of risk management dedicated for passive buildings based is proposed, in which a novel Fuzzy Fault Tree integrated with risk response matrix was developed. We proposed 171 risk remediation strategies for all 16 recognized risks in passive buildings projects. We show how to apply the proposed model in practice on one passive building example. Thanks to applying the proposed risk management model an effective reduction of the risks of the basic event is enabled, leading to a significant reduction of the top event risk. The proposed model is useful for architects, installation designers, contractors, and owners who are willing to develop attainable and successful passive buildings projects that benefit all stakeholders.

The ceramide- and phosphatidylcholine- based Coronary Event Risk Test2 (CERT2) and cardiovascular mortality in men and women with type 2 diabetes

The recently introduced Coronary Event Risk Test version 2 (CERT2) is a validated cardiovascular risk predictor score that uses circulating ceramide and phosphatidylcholine concentrations. The purpose of this study was to investigate the power of CERT2 to predict cardiovascular mortality in 280 male and 121 female patients with type 2 diabetes (T2DM). Prospectively, we recorded 55 cardiovascular deaths in men and 19 in women during a mean follow-up time of 7.6±3.6 and 8.1±3.4 years respectively. Overall, cardiovascular survival decreased with increasing CERT2 risk categories (figure 1). In Cox regression models, CERT2 significantly predicted the incidence of cardiovascular mortality in male patients with T2DM (unadj. HR 1.82 [1.39–2.37] per standard deviation; p<0.001), the unadj. HR in women was 1.36 [0.83–2.22]; p=0.228). After adjustment for age, BMI, current smoking, LDL cholesterol, HDL cholesterol, hypertension, and statin use the HR in men was 1.73 [1.31–2.29]; p<0.001) and 1.40 [083–2.36]; p=0.210 in women. Interaction terms CERT2 x gender were non-significant both in univariate analysis (p=0.354) and after multivariate adjustment (p=0.359). We conclude that sex does not significantly impact the association of CERT2 with cardiovascular mortality in patients with T2DM. FUNDunding Acknowledgement Type of funding sources: None. Figure 1

P073 Co-morbid insomnia and obstructive sleep apnoea is associated with all-cause mortality and cardiovascular event risk

Introduction Co-morbid insomnia and sleep apnoea (COMISA) is a highly prevalent and debilitating condition. Previous studies have investigated associations between insomnia and mortality, and OSA and mortality, but not COMISA. Thus, this study investigated associations between OSA, insomnia and COMISA on mortality and cardiovascular event risks. Methods Sleep Heart Health Study data (n = 5803) were used to identify people with insomnia defined as difficulties falling asleep, maintaining sleep, and/or early morning awakenings from sleep at least 5 times a month and daytime impairment. OSA was defined as an apnoea-hypopnoea index ≥15 events/h. COMISA was defined if both conditions were present. Cox proportional hazard models were used to determine the association between COMISA and all-cause mortality (n = 1210) and cardiovascular events (N = 1243) over 15 years of follow-up. Results This analysis included 5236 participants. 2504 (47.8%) did not have insomnia/OSA, 374 (7.1%) had insomnia-alone, 2027 (38.7%) had OSA-alone, and 331 (6.3%) had COMISA. Compared to participants with no insomnia/OSA, COMISA was associated with a 32% (HR, 95%CI; 1.32 (1.06, 1.64)) and 38% (1.38 (1.11, 1.71)) increased risk of mortality and cardiovascular events, respectively. Insomnia-alone and OSA-alone were not associated with all-cause mortality or cardiovascular event risk. Conclusions Participants with COMISA have decreased longevity and increased cardiovascular event risks compared to participants with no insomnia or OSA. It remains to be determined if these associations are causal and whether treatment of insomnia, OSA, or combination treatment can effectively decrease mortality and/or cardiovascular event risks in individuals with COMISA.

Prognostic value of subclinical myocardial necrosis using high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T in patients with prediabetes

Background Risk stratification of patients with prediabetes is an unmet clinical need. Here, we examine the utility of subclinical myocardial necrosis assessed by high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T (hs-cTnT) in predicting health outcomes in stable subjects with prediabetes. Methods hs-cTnT was analyzed by a high-sensitivity assay (Roche 5th generation) in 2631 stable subjects with prediabetes (HbA1c 5.7–6.4% or fasting glucose 100–125 mg/dL without previous diagnosis of diabetes or glucose-lowering therapy) who underwent elective coronary angiography for cardiac evaluation, and followed for major adverse cardiac events (MACE; death, myocardial infarction, stroke) over 3 years and all-cause mortality over 5 years. Results In our study cohort, hs-cTnT was highly prevalent with a median level of 13 ng/L (interquartile range 8.2–21.6 ng/L). Hs-cTnT was independently associated with incident MACE at 3 years (Q4 vs. Q1 adjusted hazard ratio (HR) 2.42 [95% CI 1.69–3.46], P < 0.001) and 5-year mortality (adjusted HR 3.8 [95% CI 2.55–5.67], P < 0.001). This association remained significant in all subsets after adjustment for traditional risk factors and multiple factors known to increase hs-cTnT levels. Moreover, hs-cTnT independently predicted event risk in primary prevention subjects (n = 557, HR 5.46 [95% CI 1.50–19.89), p < 0.01) for MACE; HR 9.53 [95% CI 2.08–43.73] for all-cause mortality) and secondary prevention subjects (n = 2074, HR 1.86 [95% CI 1.31–2.66], P < 0.001 for MACE; and 2.7 [95% CI 1.79–4.08), P < 0.001 for all-cause mortality). Conclusions In stable prediabetic subjects, the presence of subclinical myocardial necrosis as detected by hs-cTnT portends heightened long-term adverse cardiovascular event risk. Hs-cTnT levels may help to stratify risk and improve clinical decision making in patients with prediabetes. Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT00590200.

INTEGRASI MODEL HOUSE OF RISK DAN ANALYTICAL NETWORKING PROCESS (ANP) UNTUK MITIGASI RISIKO SUPPLY CHAIN

Currently, the resilience of the company is not separated from the strength supply chain network. Without this network, so the business process will not run well. But the strong supply chain network became vulnerable to risk. It caused by complexity and a highly dependent supply chain network. These risks need to minimize. The method that can be used to minimize risk with integrating the house of risk method and Analytical Network Process. The purpose of these integration methods to identification and recognized interrelationships between risk agent’s mitigation strategies, so the effect of event risk can be reduced. And then, by looking strategies can reducing costs incurred by the company and efficiency of risk agent’s mitigation strategy. Based on the results of House of Risk stage 1, there are 25 causes of risk that need to mitigate. The risk mitigation strategies that obtained to minimize the causes of risk, are then processed by the Analytical Networking Process (ANP) method. Based on the results of the Analytical Networking Process (ANP) method, there are two risk mitigation strategies. House of Risk stage 2 has applied to measure the efficiency and the level of difficulty of these two risk mitigation strategies. The results showed that the best mitigation strategies are conducting training and measuring company’s performance.