Heavy precipitation occurrence in Scandinavia investigated with a Regional Climate Model

2002 ◽  
pp. 101-112 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ole Bøssing Christensen ◽  
Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen ◽  
Michael Botzet
Keyword(s):  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Precipitation Occurrence

Climate Change Explorer: Extracting localized data for developing Climate Services

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christine Nam ◽  
Bente Tiedje ◽  
Susanne Pfeifer ◽  
Diana Rechid ◽  
Daniel Eggert
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Climate Services ◽  
Mitigation And Adaptation ◽  
Data Formats

<p>Everyone, politicians, public administrations, business owners, and citizens want to know how climate changes will affect them locally. Having such knowledge offers everyone the opportunity to make informed choices and take action towards mitigation and adaptation.</p><p> </p><p>In order to develop locally relevant climate service products and climate advisory services, as we do at GERICS, we must extract localized climate change information from Regional Climate Model ensemble simulations.</p><p> </p><p>Common challenges associated with developing such services include the transformation of petabytes of data from physical quantities such as precipitation, temperature, or wind, into user-applicable quantities such as return periods of heavy precipitation, e.g. for legislative or construction design frequency. Other challenges include the technical and physical barriers in the use and interpretation of climate data, due to large data volume, unfamiliar software and data formats, or limited technical infrastructure. The interpretation of climate data also requires scientific background knowledge, which limit or influence the interpretation of results.</p><p> </p><p>These barriers hinder the efficient and effective transformation of big data into user relevant information in a timely and reliable manner. To enable our society to adapt and become more resilient to climate change, we must overcome these barriers. In the Helmholtz funded Digital Earth project we are tackling these challenges by developing a Climate Change Workflow.</p><p> </p><p>In the scope of this Workflow, the user can <span>easily define a region of interest and extract </span><span>the</span><span> relevant </span><span>climate data </span><span>from the simulations available </span><span>at</span><span> the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF). Following which, </span><span>a general overview of the projected changes, in precipitation </span><span>for example, for multiple climate projections is presented</span><span>. It conveys the bandwidth, </span><span>i.e. </span><span>the minimum/maximum range by an ensemble of regional climate model projections. </span><span>We implemented the sketched workflow in a web-based tool called </span><span>The Climate Change Explorer. </span><span>It</span> addresses barriers associated with extracting locally relevant climate data from petabytes of data, in unfamilar data formats, and deals with interpolation issues, using a more intuitive and user-friendly web interface.</p><p> </p><p>Ultimately, the Climate Change Explorer provides concise information on the magnitude of projected climate change and the range of these changes for individually defined regions, such as found in GERICS ‘Climate Fact Sheets’. This tool has the capacity to also improve other workflows of climate services, allowing them to dedicate more time in deriving user relevant climate indicies; enabling politicians, public administrations, and businesses to take action.</p>

scholarly journals Thermodynamic Causes for Future Trends in Heavy Precipitation over Europe Based on an Ensemble of Regional Climate Model Simulations

2012 ◽  
Vol 25 (21) ◽  
pp. 7669-7689 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christine Radermacher ◽  
Lorenzo Tomassini
Keyword(s):  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Precipitable Water ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Extreme Value ◽  
Extreme Value Analysis ◽  
Thermodynamic Quantities ◽  
Model Simulations ◽  
Climate Model Simulations

An extreme-value analysis of projected changes in heavy precipitation is carried out for an ensemble of eight high-resolution regional climate model simulations over the European domain. The consideration of several regional climate models that are forced by different global models allows for an assessment of the robustness of the results in terms of intersimulation agreement. The extreme-value statistical method is based on a model that includes time-dependent parameters. Summer and winter are examined separately. This allows for identifying and sharpening the understanding of physical processes inducing the changes in precipitation characteristics. Thermodynamic aspects of changes in heavy precipitation are discussed. Variables that are related to the process of precipitation formation, such as precipitable water and cloud liquid water, are examined. In this context, the scaling of changes in heavy precipitation and other thermodynamic quantities with changes in temperature is explored. The validity of a Clausius–Clapeyron scaling of heavy precipitation is assessed on regional scales. Significant regional and seasonal differences in trends of heavy precipitation and only a limited validity of the Clausius–Clapeyron scaling are found. In winter, enhanced moisture transport and storm-track intensity lead to an increase in heavy precipitation, especially over the northern parts of the European continent. In summer, the increase of precipitable water is less than that required to maintain the same probability for saturation over southern Europe, which results in negative trends of heavy precipitation in these regions.

scholarly journals Atmospheric Rivers in CMIP5 climate ensembles downscaled with a high resolution regional climate model

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthias Gröger ◽  
Christian Dieterich ◽  
Cyril Dutheil ◽  
Markus Meier ◽  
Dmitry Sein
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Eastern Europe ◽  
Central Europe ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Atmospheric Rivers ◽  
Precipitation Events

Abstract. Atmospheric rivers (AR) are important drivers of heavy precipitation events in western and central Europe and often associated with intense floods. So far, the ARs response to climate change in Europe has been investigated by global climate models within the CMIP5 framework. However, their spatial resolution between 1 and 3° is too coarse for an adequate assessment of local to regional precipitation patterns. Using a regional climate model with 0.22° resolution we downscale an ensemble of 24 global climate simulations following the greenhouse gas scenarios RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5. The performance of the model was tested against ER-I reanalysis data. The downscaled simulation notably better represents small-scale spatial characteristics which is most obvious over the terrain of the Iberian Peninsula where the AR induced precipitation pattern clearly reflect eat-west striking topographical elements resulting in zonal bands of high and low AR impact. Over central Europe the model simulates a less far propagation of ARs toward eastern Europe compared to ERA-I but a higher share of AR forced heavy precipitation events especially Norway where 60 % of annual precipitation maxima are related to ARs. We find ARs more frequent and more intense in a future warmer climate especially in the higher emission scenarios whereas the changes are mostly mitigated under the assumption of RCP2.6. They also propagate further inland to eastern Europe in a warmer climate. In the high emission scenario RCP8.5 AR induced precipitation rates increase between 20 and 40 % in western central Europe while mean precipitation rates increase by maximal 12 %. Over the Iberian Peninsula AR induced precipitation rates slightly decrease around −6 % but mean rates decrease around −15 %. The result of these changes is an overall increased contribution of ARs to heavy precipitation with greatest impact over Iberia (15–30 %). Over Norway average AR precipitation rates decline between −5 to −30 %. These reductions most likely the originate from regional dynamical changes. In fact, over Norway we find ARs originating from > 60° N are reduced by up to 20 % while those originating south of 45° N are increased. Also, no clear climate change signal is seen for AR related heavy precipitation and annual maximum precipitation over Norway where the uncertainty of the ensemble is quite large.

scholarly journals Observations and Regional Climate Model Simulations of Heavy Precipitation Events and Seasonal Anomalies: A Comparison

2002 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 322-334 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kenneth E. Kunkel ◽  
Karen Andsager ◽  
Xin-Zhong Liang ◽  
Raymond W. Arritt ◽  
Eugene S. Takle ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Model Simulations ◽  
Climate Model Simulations ◽  
Precipitation Events

scholarly journals Long-term Variances of Heavy Precipitation across Central Europe using a Large Ensemble of Regional Climate Model Simulations

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Florian Ehmele ◽  
Lisa-Ann Kautz ◽  
Hendrik Feldmann ◽  
Joaquim G. Pinto
Keyword(s):  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Central Europe ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Extreme Values ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Observation Data ◽  
Large Ensemble

Abstract. Widespread flooding events are among the major natural hazards in Central Europe. Such events are usually related to intensive, long-lasting precipitation. Despite some prominent floods during the last three decades (e.g. 1997, 1999, 2002, and 2013), extreme floods are rare and associated with estimated long return periods of more than 100 years. To assess the associated risks of such extreme events, reliable statistics of precipitation and discharge are required. Comprehensive observations, however, are mainly available for the last 50–60 years or less. This shortcoming can be reduced using stochastic data sets. One possibility towards this aim is to consider climate model data or extended reanalyses. This study presents and discusses a validation of different century-long data sets, a large ensemble of decadal hindcasts, and also projections for the upcoming decade. Global reanalysis for the 20th century with a horizontal resolution of more than 100 km have been dynamically downscaled with a regional climate model (COSMO-CLM) towards a higher resolution of 25 km. The new data sets are first filtered using a dry-day adjustment. The simulations show a good agreement with observations for both statistical distributions and time series. Differences mainly appear in areas with sparse observation data. The temporal evolution during the past 60 years is well captured. The results reveal some long-term variability with phases of increased and decreased heavy precipitation. The overall trend varies between the investigation areas but is significant. The projections for the upcoming decade show ongoing tendencies with increased precipitation for upper percentiles. The presented RCM ensemble not only allows for more robust statistics in general, in particular it is suitable for a better estimation of extreme values.

scholarly journals Modelling Mediterranean heavy precipitation events at climate scale: an object-oriented evaluation of the CNRM-AROME convection-permitting regional climate model

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cécile Caillaud ◽  
Samuel Somot ◽  
Antoinette Alias ◽  
Isabelle Bernard-Bouissières ◽  
Quentin Fumière ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Object Oriented ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
Added Value ◽  
Continuous Simulation ◽  
Climate Scale ◽  
Precipitation Events

AbstractModelling the rare but high-impact Mediterranean Heavy Precipitation Events (HPEs) at climate scale remains a largely open scientific challenge. The issue is adressed here by running a 38-year-long continuous simulation of the CNRM-AROME Convection-Permitting Regional Climate Model (CP-RCM) at a 2.5 km horizontal resolution and over a large pan-Alpine domain. First, the simulation is evaluated through a basic Eulerian statistical approach via a comparison with selected high spatial and temporal resolution observational datasets. Northwestern Mediterranean fall extreme precipitation is correctly represented by CNRM-AROME at a daily scale and even better at an hourly scale, in terms of location, intensity, frequency and interannual variability, despite an underestimation of daily and hourly highest intensities above 200 mm/day and 40 mm/h, respectively. A comparison of the CP-RCM with its forcing convection-parameterised 12.5 km Regional Climate Model (RCM) demonstrates a clear added value for the CP-RCM, confirming previous studies. Secondly, an object-oriented Lagrangian approach is proposed with the implementation of a precipitating system detection and tracking algorithm, applied to the model and the reference COMEPHORE precipitation dataset for twenty fall seasons. Using French Mediterranean HPEs as objects, CNRM-AROME’s ability to represent the main characteristics of fall convective systems and tracks is highlighted in terms of number, intensity, area, duration, velocity and severity. Further, the model is able to simulate long-lasting and severe extreme fall events similar to observations. However, it fails to reproduce the precipitating systems and tracks with the highest intensities (maximum intensities above 40 mm/h) well, and the model’s tendency to overestimate the cell size increases with intensity.

Importance of Regional Climate Model Grid Spacing for the Simulation of Heavy Precipitation in the Colorado Headwaters

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (13) ◽  
pp. 4848-4857 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andreas F. Prein ◽  
Gregory J. Holland ◽  
Roy M. Rasmussen ◽  
James Done ◽  
Kyoko Ikeda ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Colorado River ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Grid Spacing ◽  
Climate Simulations ◽  
Horizontal Grid ◽  
Precipitation Events

Abstract Summer and winter daily heavy precipitation events (events above the 97.5th percentile) are analyzed in regional climate simulations with 36-, 12-, and 4-km horizontal grid spacing over the headwaters of the Colorado River. Multiscale evaluations are useful to understand differences across horizontal scales and to evaluate the effects of upscaling finescale processes to coarser-scale features associated with precipitating systems. Only the 4-km model is able to correctly simulate precipitation totals of heavy summertime events. For winter events, results from the 4- and 12-km grid models are similar and outperform the 36-km simulation. The main advantages of the 4-km simulation are the improved spatial mesoscale patterns of heavy precipitation (below ~100 km). However, the 4-km simulation also slightly improves larger-scale patterns of heavy precipitation.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document