Importance of Regional Climate Model Grid Spacing for the Simulation of Heavy Precipitation in the Colorado Headwaters

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (13) ◽  
pp. 4848-4857 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andreas F. Prein ◽  
Gregory J. Holland ◽  
Roy M. Rasmussen ◽  
James Done ◽  
Kyoko Ikeda ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Colorado River ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Grid Spacing ◽  
Climate Simulations ◽  
Horizontal Grid ◽  
Precipitation Events

Abstract Summer and winter daily heavy precipitation events (events above the 97.5th percentile) are analyzed in regional climate simulations with 36-, 12-, and 4-km horizontal grid spacing over the headwaters of the Colorado River. Multiscale evaluations are useful to understand differences across horizontal scales and to evaluate the effects of upscaling finescale processes to coarser-scale features associated with precipitating systems. Only the 4-km model is able to correctly simulate precipitation totals of heavy summertime events. For winter events, results from the 4- and 12-km grid models are similar and outperform the 36-km simulation. The main advantages of the 4-km simulation are the improved spatial mesoscale patterns of heavy precipitation (below ~100 km). However, the 4-km simulation also slightly improves larger-scale patterns of heavy precipitation.

scholarly journals Atmospheric Rivers in CMIP5 climate ensembles downscaled with a high resolution regional climate model

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthias Gröger ◽  
Christian Dieterich ◽  
Cyril Dutheil ◽  
Markus Meier ◽  
Dmitry Sein
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Eastern Europe ◽  
Central Europe ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Atmospheric Rivers ◽  
Precipitation Events

Abstract. Atmospheric rivers (AR) are important drivers of heavy precipitation events in western and central Europe and often associated with intense floods. So far, the ARs response to climate change in Europe has been investigated by global climate models within the CMIP5 framework. However, their spatial resolution between 1 and 3° is too coarse for an adequate assessment of local to regional precipitation patterns. Using a regional climate model with 0.22° resolution we downscale an ensemble of 24 global climate simulations following the greenhouse gas scenarios RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5. The performance of the model was tested against ER-I reanalysis data. The downscaled simulation notably better represents small-scale spatial characteristics which is most obvious over the terrain of the Iberian Peninsula where the AR induced precipitation pattern clearly reflect eat-west striking topographical elements resulting in zonal bands of high and low AR impact. Over central Europe the model simulates a less far propagation of ARs toward eastern Europe compared to ERA-I but a higher share of AR forced heavy precipitation events especially Norway where 60 % of annual precipitation maxima are related to ARs. We find ARs more frequent and more intense in a future warmer climate especially in the higher emission scenarios whereas the changes are mostly mitigated under the assumption of RCP2.6. They also propagate further inland to eastern Europe in a warmer climate. In the high emission scenario RCP8.5 AR induced precipitation rates increase between 20 and 40 % in western central Europe while mean precipitation rates increase by maximal 12 %. Over the Iberian Peninsula AR induced precipitation rates slightly decrease around −6 % but mean rates decrease around −15 %. The result of these changes is an overall increased contribution of ARs to heavy precipitation with greatest impact over Iberia (15–30 %). Over Norway average AR precipitation rates decline between −5 to −30 %. These reductions most likely the originate from regional dynamical changes. In fact, over Norway we find ARs originating from > 60° N are reduced by up to 20 % while those originating south of 45° N are increased. Also, no clear climate change signal is seen for AR related heavy precipitation and annual maximum precipitation over Norway where the uncertainty of the ensemble is quite large.

scholarly journals The first multi-model ensemble of regional climate simulations at kilometer-scale resolution, part I: evaluation of precipitation

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nikolina Ban ◽  
Cécile Caillaud ◽  
Erika Coppola ◽  
Emanuela Pichelli ◽  
Stefan Sobolowski ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Model Ensemble ◽  
Grid Spacing ◽  
Model Simulations ◽  
Coarse Resolution ◽  
Climate Simulations ◽  
Scale Models ◽  
Horizontal Grid

AbstractHere we present the first multi-model ensemble of regional climate simulations at kilometer-scale horizontal grid spacing over a decade long period. A total of 23 simulations run with a horizontal grid spacing of $$\sim $$ ∼ 3 km, driven by ERA-Interim reanalysis, and performed by 22 European research groups are analysed. Six different regional climate models (RCMs) are represented in the ensemble. The simulations are compared against available high-resolution precipitation observations and coarse resolution ($$\sim $$ ∼ 12 km) RCMs with parameterized convection. The model simulations and observations are compared with respect to mean precipitation, precipitation intensity and frequency, and heavy precipitation on daily and hourly timescales in different seasons. The results show that kilometer-scale models produce a more realistic representation of precipitation than the coarse resolution RCMs. The most significant improvements are found for heavy precipitation and precipitation frequency on both daily and hourly time scales in the summer season. In general, kilometer-scale models tend to produce more intense precipitation and reduced wet-hour frequency compared to coarse resolution models. On average, the multi-model mean shows a reduction of bias from $$\sim \,$$ ∼  −40% at 12 km to $$\sim \,$$ ∼  −3% at 3 km for heavy hourly precipitation in summer. Furthermore, the uncertainty ranges i.e. the variability between the models for wet hour frequency is reduced by half with the use of kilometer-scale models. Although differences between the model simulations at the kilometer-scale and observations still exist, it is evident that these simulations are superior to the coarse-resolution RCM simulations in the representing precipitation in the present-day climate, and thus offer a promising way forward for investigations of climate and climate change at local to regional scales.

scholarly journals Observations and Regional Climate Model Simulations of Heavy Precipitation Events and Seasonal Anomalies: A Comparison

2002 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 322-334 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kenneth E. Kunkel ◽  
Karen Andsager ◽  
Xin-Zhong Liang ◽  
Raymond W. Arritt ◽  
Eugene S. Takle ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Model Simulations ◽  
Climate Model Simulations ◽  
Precipitation Events

scholarly journals Modelling Mediterranean heavy precipitation events at climate scale: an object-oriented evaluation of the CNRM-AROME convection-permitting regional climate model

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cécile Caillaud ◽  
Samuel Somot ◽  
Antoinette Alias ◽  
Isabelle Bernard-Bouissières ◽  
Quentin Fumière ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Object Oriented ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
Added Value ◽  
Continuous Simulation ◽  
Climate Scale ◽  
Precipitation Events

AbstractModelling the rare but high-impact Mediterranean Heavy Precipitation Events (HPEs) at climate scale remains a largely open scientific challenge. The issue is adressed here by running a 38-year-long continuous simulation of the CNRM-AROME Convection-Permitting Regional Climate Model (CP-RCM) at a 2.5 km horizontal resolution and over a large pan-Alpine domain. First, the simulation is evaluated through a basic Eulerian statistical approach via a comparison with selected high spatial and temporal resolution observational datasets. Northwestern Mediterranean fall extreme precipitation is correctly represented by CNRM-AROME at a daily scale and even better at an hourly scale, in terms of location, intensity, frequency and interannual variability, despite an underestimation of daily and hourly highest intensities above 200 mm/day and 40 mm/h, respectively. A comparison of the CP-RCM with its forcing convection-parameterised 12.5 km Regional Climate Model (RCM) demonstrates a clear added value for the CP-RCM, confirming previous studies. Secondly, an object-oriented Lagrangian approach is proposed with the implementation of a precipitating system detection and tracking algorithm, applied to the model and the reference COMEPHORE precipitation dataset for twenty fall seasons. Using French Mediterranean HPEs as objects, CNRM-AROME’s ability to represent the main characteristics of fall convective systems and tracks is highlighted in terms of number, intensity, area, duration, velocity and severity. Further, the model is able to simulate long-lasting and severe extreme fall events similar to observations. However, it fails to reproduce the precipitating systems and tracks with the highest intensities (maximum intensities above 40 mm/h) well, and the model’s tendency to overestimate the cell size increases with intensity.

Precipitation projections of the first multi-model ensemble of regional climate simulations at convection permitting scale

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emanuela Pichelli ◽  
Erika Coppola ◽  
Nikolina Ban ◽  
Filippo Giorgi ◽  
Paolo Stocchi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Precipitation Intensity ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Model Ensemble ◽  
Climate Simulations ◽  
Local Impacts ◽  
Precipitation Changes ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

<p>We present a multi-model ensemble of regional climate model scenario simulations run at scales allowing for explicit treatment of convective processes (2-3km) over historical and end of century time slices, providing an overview of future precipitation changes over the Alpine domain within the convection-permitting CORDEX-FPS initiative. The 12 simulations of the ensemble have been performed by different research groups around Europe. The simulations are compared with high resolution observations to assess the performance over the historical period and the ensemble of 12 to 25 km resolution driving models is used as a benchmark.</p><p>An improvement of the representation of fine scale details of the analyzed fields on a seasonal scale is found, as well as of the onset and peak of the summer diurnal convection. An enhancement of the projected patterns of change and modifications of its sign for the daily precipitation intensity and heavy precipitation over some regions are found with respect to coarse resolution ensemble. A change of the amplitude of the diurnal cycle for precipitation intensity and frequency is also shown, as well also a larger positive change for high to extreme events for daily and hourly precipitation distributions. The results  are challenging and promising for further assessment of the local impacts of climate change.</p>

Climate Change Explorer: Extracting localized data for developing Climate Services

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christine Nam ◽  
Bente Tiedje ◽  
Susanne Pfeifer ◽  
Diana Rechid ◽  
Daniel Eggert
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Climate Services ◽  
Mitigation And Adaptation ◽  
Data Formats

<p>Everyone, politicians, public administrations, business owners, and citizens want to know how climate changes will affect them locally. Having such knowledge offers everyone the opportunity to make informed choices and take action towards mitigation and adaptation.</p><p> </p><p>In order to develop locally relevant climate service products and climate advisory services, as we do at GERICS, we must extract localized climate change information from Regional Climate Model ensemble simulations.</p><p> </p><p>Common challenges associated with developing such services include the transformation of petabytes of data from physical quantities such as precipitation, temperature, or wind, into user-applicable quantities such as return periods of heavy precipitation, e.g. for legislative or construction design frequency. Other challenges include the technical and physical barriers in the use and interpretation of climate data, due to large data volume, unfamiliar software and data formats, or limited technical infrastructure. The interpretation of climate data also requires scientific background knowledge, which limit or influence the interpretation of results.</p><p> </p><p>These barriers hinder the efficient and effective transformation of big data into user relevant information in a timely and reliable manner. To enable our society to adapt and become more resilient to climate change, we must overcome these barriers. In the Helmholtz funded Digital Earth project we are tackling these challenges by developing a Climate Change Workflow.</p><p> </p><p>In the scope of this Workflow, the user can <span>easily define a region of interest and extract </span><span>the</span><span> relevant </span><span>climate data </span><span>from the simulations available </span><span>at</span><span> the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF). Following which, </span><span>a general overview of the projected changes, in precipitation </span><span>for example, for multiple climate projections is presented</span><span>. It conveys the bandwidth, </span><span>i.e. </span><span>the minimum/maximum range by an ensemble of regional climate model projections. </span><span>We implemented the sketched workflow in a web-based tool called </span><span>The Climate Change Explorer. </span><span>It</span> addresses barriers associated with extracting locally relevant climate data from petabytes of data, in unfamilar data formats, and deals with interpolation issues, using a more intuitive and user-friendly web interface.</p><p> </p><p>Ultimately, the Climate Change Explorer provides concise information on the magnitude of projected climate change and the range of these changes for individually defined regions, such as found in GERICS ‘Climate Fact Sheets’. This tool has the capacity to also improve other workflows of climate services, allowing them to dedicate more time in deriving user relevant climate indicies; enabling politicians, public administrations, and businesses to take action.</p>

scholarly journals Increasing frequencies and changing characteristics of heavy precipitation events threatening infrastructure in Europe under climate change

2017 ◽  
Vol 17 (7) ◽  
pp. 1177-1190 ◽  
Author(s):  
Katrin M. Nissen ◽  
Uwe Ulbrich
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
European Regions ◽  
Event Duration ◽  
Novel Technique ◽  
Climate Simulations ◽  
Daily Events ◽  
Precipitation Events

Abstract. The effect of climate change on potentially infrastructure-damaging heavy precipitation events in Europe is investigated in an ensemble of regional climate simulations conducted at a horizontal resolution of 12 km. Based on legislation and stakeholder interviews the 10-year return period is used as a threshold for the detection of relevant events. A novel technique for the identification of heavy precipitation events is introduced. It records not only event frequency but also event size, duration and severity (a measure taking duration, size and rain amount into account) as these parameters determine the potential consequences of the event. Over most of Europe the frequency of relevant heavy precipitation events is predicted to increase with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. The number of daily and multi-day events increases at a lower rate than the number of sub-daily events. The event size is predicted to increase in the future over many European regions, especially for sub-daily events. Moreover, the most severe events were detected in the projection period. The predicted changes in frequency, size and intensity of events may increase the risk for infrastructure damages. The climate change simulations do not show changes in event duration.

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