scholarly journals Correction to: Modelling Mediterranean heavy precipitation events at climate scale: an object-oriented evaluation of the CNRM-AROME convection-permitting regional climate model

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cécile Caillaud ◽  
Samuel Somot ◽  
Antoinette Alias ◽  
Isabelle Bernard-Bouissières ◽  
Quentin Fumière ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Object Oriented ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Climate Scale ◽  
Precipitation Events

scholarly journals Modelling Mediterranean heavy precipitation events at climate scale: an object-oriented evaluation of the CNRM-AROME convection-permitting regional climate model

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cécile Caillaud ◽  
Samuel Somot ◽  
Antoinette Alias ◽  
Isabelle Bernard-Bouissières ◽  
Quentin Fumière ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Object Oriented ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
Added Value ◽  
Continuous Simulation ◽  
Climate Scale ◽  
Precipitation Events

AbstractModelling the rare but high-impact Mediterranean Heavy Precipitation Events (HPEs) at climate scale remains a largely open scientific challenge. The issue is adressed here by running a 38-year-long continuous simulation of the CNRM-AROME Convection-Permitting Regional Climate Model (CP-RCM) at a 2.5 km horizontal resolution and over a large pan-Alpine domain. First, the simulation is evaluated through a basic Eulerian statistical approach via a comparison with selected high spatial and temporal resolution observational datasets. Northwestern Mediterranean fall extreme precipitation is correctly represented by CNRM-AROME at a daily scale and even better at an hourly scale, in terms of location, intensity, frequency and interannual variability, despite an underestimation of daily and hourly highest intensities above 200 mm/day and 40 mm/h, respectively. A comparison of the CP-RCM with its forcing convection-parameterised 12.5 km Regional Climate Model (RCM) demonstrates a clear added value for the CP-RCM, confirming previous studies. Secondly, an object-oriented Lagrangian approach is proposed with the implementation of a precipitating system detection and tracking algorithm, applied to the model and the reference COMEPHORE precipitation dataset for twenty fall seasons. Using French Mediterranean HPEs as objects, CNRM-AROME’s ability to represent the main characteristics of fall convective systems and tracks is highlighted in terms of number, intensity, area, duration, velocity and severity. Further, the model is able to simulate long-lasting and severe extreme fall events similar to observations. However, it fails to reproduce the precipitating systems and tracks with the highest intensities (maximum intensities above 40 mm/h) well, and the model’s tendency to overestimate the cell size increases with intensity.

scholarly journals Atmospheric Rivers in CMIP5 climate ensembles downscaled with a high resolution regional climate model

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthias Gröger ◽  
Christian Dieterich ◽  
Cyril Dutheil ◽  
Markus Meier ◽  
Dmitry Sein
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Eastern Europe ◽  
Central Europe ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Atmospheric Rivers ◽  
Precipitation Events

Abstract. Atmospheric rivers (AR) are important drivers of heavy precipitation events in western and central Europe and often associated with intense floods. So far, the ARs response to climate change in Europe has been investigated by global climate models within the CMIP5 framework. However, their spatial resolution between 1 and 3° is too coarse for an adequate assessment of local to regional precipitation patterns. Using a regional climate model with 0.22° resolution we downscale an ensemble of 24 global climate simulations following the greenhouse gas scenarios RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5. The performance of the model was tested against ER-I reanalysis data. The downscaled simulation notably better represents small-scale spatial characteristics which is most obvious over the terrain of the Iberian Peninsula where the AR induced precipitation pattern clearly reflect eat-west striking topographical elements resulting in zonal bands of high and low AR impact. Over central Europe the model simulates a less far propagation of ARs toward eastern Europe compared to ERA-I but a higher share of AR forced heavy precipitation events especially Norway where 60 % of annual precipitation maxima are related to ARs. We find ARs more frequent and more intense in a future warmer climate especially in the higher emission scenarios whereas the changes are mostly mitigated under the assumption of RCP2.6. They also propagate further inland to eastern Europe in a warmer climate. In the high emission scenario RCP8.5 AR induced precipitation rates increase between 20 and 40 % in western central Europe while mean precipitation rates increase by maximal 12 %. Over the Iberian Peninsula AR induced precipitation rates slightly decrease around −6 % but mean rates decrease around −15 %. The result of these changes is an overall increased contribution of ARs to heavy precipitation with greatest impact over Iberia (15–30 %). Over Norway average AR precipitation rates decline between −5 to −30 %. These reductions most likely the originate from regional dynamical changes. In fact, over Norway we find ARs originating from > 60° N are reduced by up to 20 % while those originating south of 45° N are increased. Also, no clear climate change signal is seen for AR related heavy precipitation and annual maximum precipitation over Norway where the uncertainty of the ensemble is quite large.

scholarly journals Observations and Regional Climate Model Simulations of Heavy Precipitation Events and Seasonal Anomalies: A Comparison

2002 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 322-334 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kenneth E. Kunkel ◽  
Karen Andsager ◽  
Xin-Zhong Liang ◽  
Raymond W. Arritt ◽  
Eugene S. Takle ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Model Simulations ◽  
Climate Model Simulations ◽  
Precipitation Events

Importance of Regional Climate Model Grid Spacing for the Simulation of Heavy Precipitation in the Colorado Headwaters

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (13) ◽  
pp. 4848-4857 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andreas F. Prein ◽  
Gregory J. Holland ◽  
Roy M. Rasmussen ◽  
James Done ◽  
Kyoko Ikeda ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Colorado River ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Grid Spacing ◽  
Climate Simulations ◽  
Horizontal Grid ◽  
Precipitation Events

Abstract Summer and winter daily heavy precipitation events (events above the 97.5th percentile) are analyzed in regional climate simulations with 36-, 12-, and 4-km horizontal grid spacing over the headwaters of the Colorado River. Multiscale evaluations are useful to understand differences across horizontal scales and to evaluate the effects of upscaling finescale processes to coarser-scale features associated with precipitating systems. Only the 4-km model is able to correctly simulate precipitation totals of heavy summertime events. For winter events, results from the 4- and 12-km grid models are similar and outperform the 36-km simulation. The main advantages of the 4-km simulation are the improved spatial mesoscale patterns of heavy precipitation (below ~100 km). However, the 4-km simulation also slightly improves larger-scale patterns of heavy precipitation.

Climate Change Explorer: Extracting localized data for developing Climate Services

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christine Nam ◽  
Bente Tiedje ◽  
Susanne Pfeifer ◽  
Diana Rechid ◽  
Daniel Eggert
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Climate Services ◽  
Mitigation And Adaptation ◽  
Data Formats

<p>Everyone, politicians, public administrations, business owners, and citizens want to know how climate changes will affect them locally. Having such knowledge offers everyone the opportunity to make informed choices and take action towards mitigation and adaptation.</p><p> </p><p>In order to develop locally relevant climate service products and climate advisory services, as we do at GERICS, we must extract localized climate change information from Regional Climate Model ensemble simulations.</p><p> </p><p>Common challenges associated with developing such services include the transformation of petabytes of data from physical quantities such as precipitation, temperature, or wind, into user-applicable quantities such as return periods of heavy precipitation, e.g. for legislative or construction design frequency. Other challenges include the technical and physical barriers in the use and interpretation of climate data, due to large data volume, unfamiliar software and data formats, or limited technical infrastructure. The interpretation of climate data also requires scientific background knowledge, which limit or influence the interpretation of results.</p><p> </p><p>These barriers hinder the efficient and effective transformation of big data into user relevant information in a timely and reliable manner. To enable our society to adapt and become more resilient to climate change, we must overcome these barriers. In the Helmholtz funded Digital Earth project we are tackling these challenges by developing a Climate Change Workflow.</p><p> </p><p>In the scope of this Workflow, the user can <span>easily define a region of interest and extract </span><span>the</span><span> relevant </span><span>climate data </span><span>from the simulations available </span><span>at</span><span> the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF). Following which, </span><span>a general overview of the projected changes, in precipitation </span><span>for example, for multiple climate projections is presented</span><span>. It conveys the bandwidth, </span><span>i.e. </span><span>the minimum/maximum range by an ensemble of regional climate model projections. </span><span>We implemented the sketched workflow in a web-based tool called </span><span>The Climate Change Explorer. </span><span>It</span> addresses barriers associated with extracting locally relevant climate data from petabytes of data, in unfamilar data formats, and deals with interpolation issues, using a more intuitive and user-friendly web interface.</p><p> </p><p>Ultimately, the Climate Change Explorer provides concise information on the magnitude of projected climate change and the range of these changes for individually defined regions, such as found in GERICS ‘Climate Fact Sheets’. This tool has the capacity to also improve other workflows of climate services, allowing them to dedicate more time in deriving user relevant climate indicies; enabling politicians, public administrations, and businesses to take action.</p>

scholarly journals Thermodynamic Causes for Future Trends in Heavy Precipitation over Europe Based on an Ensemble of Regional Climate Model Simulations

2012 ◽  
Vol 25 (21) ◽  
pp. 7669-7689 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christine Radermacher ◽  
Lorenzo Tomassini
Keyword(s):  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Precipitable Water ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Extreme Value ◽  
Extreme Value Analysis ◽  
Thermodynamic Quantities ◽  
Model Simulations ◽  
Climate Model Simulations

An extreme-value analysis of projected changes in heavy precipitation is carried out for an ensemble of eight high-resolution regional climate model simulations over the European domain. The consideration of several regional climate models that are forced by different global models allows for an assessment of the robustness of the results in terms of intersimulation agreement. The extreme-value statistical method is based on a model that includes time-dependent parameters. Summer and winter are examined separately. This allows for identifying and sharpening the understanding of physical processes inducing the changes in precipitation characteristics. Thermodynamic aspects of changes in heavy precipitation are discussed. Variables that are related to the process of precipitation formation, such as precipitable water and cloud liquid water, are examined. In this context, the scaling of changes in heavy precipitation and other thermodynamic quantities with changes in temperature is explored. The validity of a Clausius–Clapeyron scaling of heavy precipitation is assessed on regional scales. Significant regional and seasonal differences in trends of heavy precipitation and only a limited validity of the Clausius–Clapeyron scaling are found. In winter, enhanced moisture transport and storm-track intensity lead to an increase in heavy precipitation, especially over the northern parts of the European continent. In summer, the increase of precipitable water is less than that required to maintain the same probability for saturation over southern Europe, which results in negative trends of heavy precipitation in these regions.

scholarly journals Future changes in extreme precipitation in the Rhine basin based on global and regional climate model simulations

2012 ◽  
Vol 16 (12) ◽  
pp. 4517-4530 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. C. van Pelt ◽  
J. J. Beersma ◽  
T. A. Buishand ◽  
B. J. J. M. van den Hurk ◽  
P. Kabat
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Future Change ◽  
Model Simulations ◽  
Rhine Basin ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Precipitation Events

Abstract. Probability estimates of the future change of extreme precipitation events are usually based on a limited number of available global climate model (GCM) or regional climate model (RCM) simulations. Since floods are related to heavy precipitation events, this restricts the assessment of flood risks. In this study a relatively simple method has been developed to get a better description of the range of changes in extreme precipitation events. Five bias-corrected RCM simulations of the 1961–2100 climate for a single greenhouse gas emission scenario (A1B SRES) were available for the Rhine basin. To increase the size of this five-member RCM ensemble, 13 additional GCM simulations were analysed. The climate responses of the GCMs are used to modify an observed (1961–1995) precipitation time series with an advanced delta change approach. Changes in the temporal means and variability are taken into account. It is found that the range of future change of extreme precipitation across the five-member RCM ensemble is similar to results from the 13-member GCM ensemble. For the RCM ensemble, the time series modification procedure also results in a similar climate response compared to the signal deduced from the direct model simulations. The changes from the individual RCM simulations, however, systematically differ from those of the driving GCMs, especially for long return periods.

scholarly journals Regional, Very Heavy Daily Precipitation in NARCCAP Simulations

2013 ◽  
Vol 14 (4) ◽  
pp. 1212-1227 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sho Kawazoe ◽  
William J. Gutowski
Keyword(s):  
Mississippi River ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Daily Precipitation ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
River Region ◽  
Precipitation Events

Abstract The authors analyze the ability of the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program's ensemble of climate models to simulate very heavy daily precipitation and its supporting processes, comparing simulations that used observation-based boundary conditions with observations. The analysis includes regional climate models and a time-slice global climate model that all used approximately half-degree resolution. Analysis focuses on an upper Mississippi River region for winter (December–February), when it is assumed that resolved synoptic circulation governs precipitation. All models generally reproduce the precipitation-versus-intensity spectrum seen in observations well, with a small tendency toward producing overly strong precipitation at high-intensity thresholds, such as the 95th, 99th, and 99.5th percentiles. Further analysis focuses on precipitation events exceeding the 99.5th percentile that occur simultaneously at several points in the region, yielding so-called “widespread events.” Examination of additional fields shows that the models produce very heavy precipitation events for the same physical conditions seen in the observations.

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