scholarly journals Agricultural Decision Making in the Argentine Pampas: Modeling the Interaction between Uncertain and Complex Environments and Heterogeneous and Complex Decision Makers

Author(s):  
Guillermo Podestá ◽  
Elke U. Weber ◽  
Carlos Laciana ◽  
Federico Bert ◽  
David Letson
Kybernetes ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Virupaxi Bagodi ◽  
Biswajit Mahanty

PurposeManagerial decision-making is an area of interest to both academia and practitioners. Researchers found that managers often fail to manage complex decision-making tasks and system thinkers assert that generic structures known as systems archetypes help them to a great deal in handling such situations. In this paper, it is demonstrated that decision makers resort to lowering of goal (quick-fix) in order to resolve the gap between the goal and current reality in the “drifting the goals” systems archetype.Design/methodology/approachA real-life case study is taken up to highlight the pitfalls of “drifting the goals” systems archetype for a decision situation in the Indian two-wheeler industry. System dynamics modeling is made use of to obtain the results.FindingsThe decision makers fail to realize the pitfall of lowering the goal to resolve the gap between the goal and current reality. It is seen that, irrespective of current less-than-desirable performance, managers adopting corrective actions other than lowering of goals perform better in the long run. Further, it is demonstrated that extending the boundary and experimentation results in designing a better service system and setting benchmarks.Practical implicationsThe best possible way to avoid the pitfall is to hold the vision and not lower the long term goal. The managers must be aware of the pitfalls beforehand.Originality/valueSystems thinking is important in complex decision-making tasks. Managers need to embrace long-term perspective in decision-making. This paper demonstrates the value of systems thinking in terms of a case study on the “drifting the goals” systems archetype.


2011 ◽  
Vol 5 (9) ◽  
pp. 27 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carlos Parra López ◽  
Javier Calatrava Requena ◽  
Tomás De Haro Giménez

Even though multifunctionality concept is reflected, implicit or explicitly, in the design of actual agrarian policies, its consideration when analysing and assessing farming systems is relatively limited in the scientific literature. Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is proposed with this aim. AHP is a multicriteria discrete decision support technique that is used in complex decision making. This methodology is stated jointly with a proposed procedure to measure relative agreement among decision makers and uniformity of alternatives’ performances in group decision making. Finally AHP is implemented in the assessment of organic, integrated and conventional olive groves in Andalusia considering criteria of a different nature – economic, technical, sociocultural and environmental –. The final purpose is determining the more interesting growing techniques from a holistic point of view for all the society in the medium/long-term on the basis of knowledge of experts on olive.


Author(s):  
Karel Doubravský ◽  
Tomáš Meluzín ◽  
Mirko Dohnal

IPO (Initial Public Offering) is a complex decision making task which is always associated with different types of uncertainty. Poor accuracies of available probabilities of lotteries e.g. quantification of investor interest is studied in the first part of this paper (Meluzín, Doubravský, Dohnal, 2012). However, IPO is often prohibitively ill-known. This paper takes into consideration the fact that decision makers cannot specify the structure/topology of the relevant decision tree. It means that one IPO task is specified by several (partially) different decision trees which comes from different sources e.g. from different teams of decision makers/experts. A flexible integration of those trees is based on fuzzy logic using the reconciliation (Meluzín, Doubravský, Dohnal, 2012). The developed algorithm is demonstrated by a case study which is presented in details. The IPO case integrates two partially different decision trees.


Author(s):  
Zbigniew ŚCIBIOREK

In the article it has been emphasized, without analyzing the problematic situation, that making decision is becoming an increasingly complex process. This is influenced by many factors, mainly the dynamism of changes taking place and the significant impact of the environment. Information is essential to take correct and effective decisions. It is not always certain (reliable). Uncertainty and risk accompany decision makers and the point is that the decisions are adequate to the ensuing situation and create realistic determinants for achieving objectives – the implementation of the planned tasks. Interdisciplinary knowledge and high competences of persons making resolutions of complex decision problems are indispensable.


2009 ◽  
Vol 22 (2) ◽  
pp. 71-80 ◽  
Author(s):  
D G Cramp ◽  
E R Carson

One feature that characterizes the organization and delivery of health care is its inherent complexity. All too often, with so much information and so many activities involved, it is difficult for decision-makers to determine in an objective fashion an appropriate course of action. It would appear that a holistic rather than a reductionist approach would be advantageous. The aim of this paper is to review how formal systems thinking can aid decision-making in complex situations. Consideration is given as to how the use of a number of systems modelling methodologies can help in gaining an understanding of a complex decision situation. This in turn can enhance the possibility of a decision being made in a more rational, explicit and transparent fashion. The arguments and approaches are illustrated using examples taken from the public health arena.


Author(s):  
Goran Ćirović ◽  
Dragan Pamučar ◽  
Nataša Popović-Miletić

The paper presents a new approach in treating uncertainty and subjectivity in the decision making process based on the modification of Multi Attributive Border Approximation area Comparison (MABAC) and an Objective-Subjective (OS) model by applying linguistic neutrosophic numbers (LNN) instead of traditional numerical values. By integrating these models with linguistic neutrosophic numbers it was shown that it is possible to a significant extent to eliminate subjective qualitative assessments and assumptions by decision makers in complex decision-making conditions. On this basis, a new hybrid LNN OS-MABAC model was formed. This model was tested and validated on a case-study of the selection of optimal unmanned aircraft intended to combat forest fires.


2022 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 0-0

Complex decisions are an unusual process, composed of actions. An impact is a measure of the tangible and intangible consequences of one thing on another. Impacts are interdependent, and the environment in which they are measured generates constant change for decision making. This paper proposes the impact projection’s conceptualization, organized into a meta-ontology called OntoImpact. It comprises concepts that are crucial in supporting the understanding and representation of impact projections for complex decisions. The main contribution of OntoImpact is to support decision-makers in their work tasks, besides providing bases to support the development of a complex decision system. This paper was evaluated in a case study of an emergency domain. The results show that OntoImpact provides elements that can support complex decision analysis and project impacts in a collaborative way.


Author(s):  
Zhengmin Liu ◽  
Yawen Bi ◽  
Xinya Wang ◽  
Linbin Sha ◽  
Peide Liu

AbstractHow to effectively reflect the randomness and reliability of decision information under uncertain circumstances, and thereby improve the accuracy of decision-making in complex decision scenarios, has become a crucial topic in the field of uncertain decision-making. In this article, the loss –aversion behavior of decision-makers and the non-compensation between attributes are considered. Furthermore, a novel generalized TODIM-ELECTRE II method under the linguistic Z-numbers environment is proposed based on Dempster–Shafer evidence theory for multi-criteria group decision-making problems with unknown weight information. Firstly, the evaluation information and its reliability are provided simultaneously by employing linguistic Z-numbers, which have the ability to capture the arbitrariness and vagueness of natural verbal information. Then, the evaluation information is used to derive basic probability assignments in Dempster–Shafer evidence theory, and with the consideration of both inner and outer reliability, this article employed Dempster’s rule to fuse evaluations. Subsequently, a generalized TODIM-ELECTRE II method is conceived under the linguistic Z-numbers environment, which considers both compensatory effects between attributes and the bounded rationality of decision-makers. In addition, criteria weights are obtained by applying Deng entropy which has the ability to deal with uncertainty. Finally, an example of terminal wastewater solidification technology selection is offered to prove this framework’s availability and robustness. The predominance is also verified by a comparative analysis with several existing methods.


2020 ◽  
Vol 19 (01) ◽  
pp. 221-240
Author(s):  
Jerzy Michnik ◽  
Artur Grabowski

This paper introduces a novel approach to support decision-making by combining the Weighted Influence Nonlinear Gauge System (WINGS) method with interval arithmetic. This approach allows to include uncertain judgments and/or different opinions in a decision process. Our research aims at increasing the ability of WINGS to model decisions in situations of uncertainty and at extending the reach of its practical applications. The new, relatively simple and transparent method can become a useful and practical tool for the decision makers. Mathematical correctness of the proposed methodology is proven. Based on the new method, a procedure for solving a complex decision problem is created. Its applicability is illustrated by two case studies. Choosing the best option for the organization’s competitive position in a health-care organization shows how the proposed method works with uncertain judgments. Its usefulness for group decision-making is illustrated by applying it to a decision concerning allocation of public funds for sport development in a small commune.


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