The Impact of Wassily Hoeffding’s Work on Sequential Analysis

Author(s):  
Gordon Simons
2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. 152-152
Author(s):  
Ying-Ling Jao ◽  
Carissa Coleman ◽  
Kristine Williams ◽  
Diane Berish ◽  
Wen Liu ◽  
...  

Abstract Communication is fundamental for daily care activities in nursing homes (NHs). Second-by-second behavioral coding of video observations is an ideal approach to examine the interactive nature of communication but requires a reliable coding scheme. Recent studies have adapted the Peron-Centered Behavioral Inventory (PCBI) and Task-Centered Behavioral Inventory (TCBI) to analyze caregiver communication during mealtime interactions, but their use for coding general daily caregiving activities has not been widely evaluated. This pilot study adapted the PCBI and TCBI of video observations and determined their inter-rater reliability for measuring caregiver verbal communication with persons with dementia (PwD). We analyzed videos from a randomized controlled trial of an intervention to improve caregiver communication in NHs. We selected one 1-minute segment from 12 videos that included interactions of caregiver-resident dyads. One research assistant transcribed caregivers’ verbal communication and segmented the communication into utterances. Two other research assistants independently coded each utterance using the adapted PCBI and TCBI. The coding scheme was expanded by modifying the existing operational definitions, adding three new codes, and developing a coding decision guide. Residents were Caucasian (100%), mean age 86 years with dementia and resistive behaviors. The adapted PCBI and TCBI had an inter-rater reliability of Kappa=0.656 (p<.001) across the 12 videos. Overall, our adapted PCBI and TCBI showed substantial inter-rater reliability. The results support the use of our adapted PCBI and TCBI to distinguish between person-centered and task-centered communication in video observations, which, in turn, allows for sequential analysis to examine the impact of caregiver communication on PwD.


2019 ◽  
Vol 2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Devayani Tirthali ◽  
Yumiko Murai

In an open online discussion forum, where there is no fixed structure or a facilitator like a course forum without any assigned themes, every participant is a facilitator shaping the direction and depth of a conversation. How can we as designers then make sure it leads to an engaging learning community that learners keep coming back to beyond the given course period? This paper reports on sequential analysis of 172 posts in 32 threads and close reading of two threads from an open online discussion forum in a free open online course, specifically looking at the impact of participant actions as facilitative moves, to gain better understanding of the types of actions that lead to deeper and sustained engagement with the ideas of interest. Sequential analysis is an approach that estimates which types of sequences of posts or interactions are most likely to occur in a threaded discussion. The results showed that sharing personal experiences attracted most responses, implying that it is important to encourage participants to share questions or cases connected to their personal experiences. In addition, somewhat paradoxically, we found that posts acknowledging responses tend to conclude and close down the conversation while posts that ask diverging questions tend to attract more discussion.


2018 ◽  
Vol 2018 ◽  
pp. 1-13
Author(s):  
Jie Cui ◽  
Da Tang ◽  
Zhen Chen ◽  
Genglong Liu

Background. Previous studies have examined the effect of the initiation time of renal replacement therapy (RRT) in patients with cardiac surgery-associated acute kidney injury (CSA-AKI), but the findings remain controversial. The aim of this meta-analysis was to systematically and quantitatively compare the impact of early versus late initiation of RRT on the outcome of patients with CSA-AKI.Methods. Four databases (PubMed, the Cochrane Library, ISI Web of Knowledge, and Embase) were systematically searched from inception to June 2018 for randomized clinical trials (RCTs). Two investigators independently performed the literature search, study selection, data extraction, and quality evaluation. Meta-analysis and trial sequential analysis (TSA) were used to examine the impact of RRT initiation time on all-cause mortality (primary outcome). The Grading of Recommendations Assessment Development and Evaluation (GRADE) was used to evaluate the level of evidence.Results. We identified 4 RCTs with 355 patients that were eligible for inclusion. Pooled analyses indicated no difference in mortality for patients receiving early and late initiation of RRT (relative risk [RR] = 0.61, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.33 to 1.12). However, the results were not confirmed by TSA. Similarly, early RRT did not reduce the length of stay (LOS) in the intensive care unit (ICU) (mean difference [MD] = -1.04; 95% CI = -3.34 to 1.27) or the LOS in the hospital (MD = -1.57; 95% CI = -4.62 to 1.48). Analysis using GRADE indicated the certainty of the body of evidence was very low for a benefit from early initiation of RRT.Conclusion. Early initiation of RRT had no beneficial impacts on outcomes in patients with CSA-AKI. Future larger and more adequately powered prospective RCTs are needed to verify the benefit of reduced mortality associated with early initiation of RRT.Trial Registration. This trial is registered with PROSPERO registration number CRD42018084465, registered on 11 February 2018.


BMJ Open ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 7 (11) ◽  
pp. e015888 ◽  
Author(s):  
Josep M Garcia-Alamino ◽  
Clare Bankhead ◽  
Carl Heneghan ◽  
Nicola Pidduck ◽  
Rafael Perera

ObjectiveTo estimate the proportion of systematic reviews that meet the optimal information size (OIS) and assess the impact heterogeneity and effect size have on the OIS estimate by type of outcome (eg, mortality, semiobjective or subjective).MethodsWe carried out searches of Medline and Cochrane to retrieve meta-analyses published in systematic reviews from 2010 to 2012. We estimated the OIS usingTrial Sequential Analysissoftware (TSA V.0.9) and based on several heterogeneity and effect size scenarios, stratifying by type of outcome (mortality/semiobjective/subjective) and by Cochrane/non-Cochrane reviews.ResultsWe included 137 meta-analyses out of 218 (63%) potential systematic reviews (one meta-analysis from each systematic review). Of these reviews, 83 (61%) were Cochrane and 54 (39%) non-Cochrane. The Cochrane reviews included a mean of 6.5 (SD 6.1) studies and the non-Cochrane included a mean of 13.2 (SD 10.2) studies. The mean number of patients was 2619.1 (SD 6245.8 or median 586.0) for the Cochrane and 19 888.5 (SD 32 925.7 or median 6566.5) patients for the non-Cochrane reviews. The percentage of systematic reviews that achieved the OIS for all-cause mortality outcome were 0% Cochrane and 25% for non-Cochrane reviews; for semiobjective outcome 17% for Cochrane and 46% for non-Cochrane reviews and for subjective outcome 45% for Cochrane and 72% for non-Cochrane reviews.ConclusionsThe number of systematic reviews that meet an optimal information size is low and varies depending on the type of outcome and the type of publication. Less than half of primary outcomes synthesised in systematic reviews achieve the OIS, and therefore the conclusions are subject to substantial uncertainty.


Author(s):  
Sebastian Schafhirt ◽  
John M. Hembre ◽  
Michael Muskulus

There has been an ongoing debate whether local out-of-plane vibrations of braces exist in jacket support structures for wind turbines. The issue has been raised with the sequential analysis of offshore wind turbines, where increased fatigue damage for bracings was observed. Local vibration modes, excited by rotor harmonics, were detected as a reason for it. A methodology to remove global motion of the jacket from the displacements of the central joint in a brace is presented and the amplitude of local out-of-plane displacements is analyzed, using an integrated wind turbine simulation based on a flexible multibody solver. Finally, the impact on fatigue damage is calculated. Results indicate that the extent of local vibrations is much less than previously thought or predicted in other studies.


Blood ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 128 (22) ◽  
pp. 945-945 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohamad Jawhar ◽  
Juliana Schwaab ◽  
Nicole Naumann ◽  
Sebastian Kluger ◽  
Hans-Peter Horny ◽  
...  

Abstract Systemic mastocytosis (SM) arises as a consequence of aberrant activation of KIT signaling, most commonly by acquisition of the KIT D816V mutation (>80-90% of patients). A recently reported phase-II-study exploring the efficacy and safety of midostaurin, a multi-targeted KIT inhibitor, in patients with advanced SM (advSM) has demonstrated major and partial responses in 60% of patients (Gotlib et al., NEJM 374, 2016). However, recent data have highlighted that the molecular pathogenesis of SM is complex. In particular, additional mutations in SRSF2, ASXL1 and/or RUNX1 (S/A/Rpos), seen in 60-70% of patients with advSM, have a significant adverse impact on disease phenotype and prognosis (Jawhar et al., Leukemia 30, 2016). In the current study, we evaluated the impact of molecular markers on response, resistance, progression and overall survival (OS) in midostaurin-treated advSM patients: 1) the S/A/R mutation profile at diagnosis, 2) the reduction of the KIT D816V allele burden (EAB) and 3) the dynamics of the clonal architecture. Between 2009 and 2015, 38 patients (68% male; median age 67 years; range, 48-76) with advSM [SM with an associated hematological neoplasm (SM-AHN), n=22; aggressive SM (ASM), n=3; mast cell leukemia (MCL), n=4; MCL-AHN, n=9] received midostaurin at our institution and were monitored for the KIT D816V EAB by quantitative RT-PCR (RT-qPCR). In addition, serial Next Generation Sequencing (NGS) analyses were performed in 16/25 multi-mutated patients. Median time from diagnosis of advSM to start of midostaurin was 12 months (range, 1-60). Twenty-one of 38 (55%) patients died; median OS was 29 months (range, 0-88) from start of midostaurin and 40 months (range, 5-115) from diagnosis. Three patients (8%) stopped midostaurin early (median 2 months; range, 1-4) because of intolerance. In the remaining 35 (92%) patients, median treatment duration was 13 months (range, 1-88). Progression/death occurred in 6/35 (17%) patients within the first 6 months and 5 (83%) patients were S/A/Rpos. Overall response rate (ORR) according to IWG-MRI-ECNM consensus criteria and OS were significantly different between S/A/Rpos (n=23) vs. S/A/Rneg (n=12) patients [ORR: 35% vs. 75%, P=0.01; OS: P=0.01, HR 4.5 (1.3-16.2), Figure 1A]. The maximal median reduction of KIT D816V EAB in 28 patients treated for >6 months was -29% (range, -100 to 71). Depending on the KIT D816V EAB at month 6, patients were classified as responders (≥25%, n=17) or non-responders (<25%, n=11). Responders were significantly associated with a longer median time on midostaurin (25 vs. 9 months, P=0.01) and achievement of any clinical response according to IWG-MRI-ECNM criteria (13/17 vs. 2/11 patients, P=0.006). All 4 patients who lost their KIT D816V EAB response were S/A/Rpos. In univariate analyses of multiple clinical and molecular response parameters at month 6, three parameters were significantly associated with inferior OS: reduction of KIT D816V EAB <25% (P=0.0004), serum tryptase <50% (P=0.03) and alkaline phosphatase <50% (P=0.04). In multivariate analysis, only KIT D816V EAB reduction <25% remained an independent poor prognostic marker for reduced OS (P=0.004, HR 6.8 [1.8-25.3]) and was superior to the IWG-MRI-ECNM consensus criteria (P=0.005, HR 4.7 [1.5-15.5]) (Figure 1B). Serial NGS analysis of 7 deceased patients revealed acquisition of additional mutations in RUNX1 (n=2), K/NRAS (n=3), IDH2 (n=1) or NPM1 (n=1) and/or increasing mutation allele burdens while KIT D816V EAB was either low (n=2), stable (n=1) or increasing (n=4). In contrast, two patients acquired a JAK2 V617F mutation but remained in remission on midostaurin. In summary, we have found that S/A/Rneg at diagnosis and reduction of the KIT D816V EAB ≥25% at month 6 were the most favorable predictors for survival in midostaurin-treated advSM patients. S/A/Rpos at diagnosis was associated with a more aggressive phenotype, (early) resistance/progression and poor survival. Serial sequencing during treatment also revealed that secondary resistance/transformation may be caused by expansion of sub-clones exhibiting new mutations in critical target genes independent of KIT D816V. In addition to established response parameters, sequential analysis of KIT D816V EAB and other molecular aberrations add relevant information for optimal management and response assessment in midostaurin-treated patients with advSM. Disclosures Valent: Celegene: Honoraria, Research Funding; Novartis: Honoraria, Research Funding; Amgen: Honoraria. Meggendorfer:MLL Munich Leukemia Laboratory: Employment.


2015 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 91-109 ◽  
Author(s):  
Irán O. García ◽  
Sheila J. Henderson

AbstractIn order to contribute to knowledge on the Latina graduate students’ experiences and the role of mentoring relationships in their pursuit of higher education, the purpose of this qualitative study was to interview Latina doctoral students about their lived experience. Four Latina graduate students at a graduate university in San Francisco, California were recruited by way of student email lists, flyers, and social networks such as Facebook, LinkedIn, Hi5, and word of mouth. Participants took part in a face-to-face interview guided by semi-structured questions. Within the same cultural and cross-cultural mentoring relationship experiences described, a sequential analysis of the interview transcripts revealed the following themes consistent with the Kram model of mentoring: (a) conceptualizations of a “good mentor,” (b) how mentoring influenced their pursuit of graduate studies, and (c) the impact of mentoring on their self-confidence and self-esteem. While many studies exist on mentoring students, there is relatively little research on the mentoring experiences of Latina graduate students. It is hoped that this small study will motivate much needed further research in the mentoring needs of the Latina/o community. One possible issue revealed in this study was the absence of within culture or cross-cultural mentoring for Latina graduate students.


Author(s):  
Mark Elwood

This chapter presents an important, large, international randomised trial of prevention, the use of folic acid and multivitamins in preventing spina bifida and other neural tube defects. This shows the ethical and logistic issues involved, a factorial randomised design, a sequential analysis and early stopping example, and specificity of effect, and discusses the application to policy. The critical assessment follows the scheme set out in chapter 10: describing the study, assessing the non-causal explanations of observation bias, confounding, and chance variation; assessing time relationships, strength, dose-response, consistency and specificity, and applying the results to the eligible, source, and target populations; and then comparing the results with evidence from other studies, considering consistency and specificity, biological mechanisms, and coherence with the distribution of exposures and outcomes. The chapter gives a summary and table of the critical assessment and its conclusions; and comments on the impact of the study and research carried out since.


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