Regularized Extreme Learning Machine Ensemble Using Bagging for Tropical Cyclone Tracks Prediction

2018 ◽  
pp. 203-215
Author(s):  
Jun Zhang ◽  
Jian Jin
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Extreme Learning Machine ◽  
Cyclone Tracks ◽  
Learning Machine ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Tracks

A mathematical model for forecasting tropical cyclone tracks

2006 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 211-224 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiangde Xu ◽  
Lian Xie ◽  
Xuejin Zhang ◽  
Wenqing Yao
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Cyclone Tracks ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Tracks

Lagged-Average Predictions of Tropical Cyclone Tracks

1991 ◽  
Vol 119 (4) ◽  
pp. 1031-1039 ◽  
Author(s):  
Russell L. Elsberry ◽  
Paul H. Dobos ◽  
A. Ben Bacon
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Cyclone Tracks ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Tracks

Quantitative observations on tropical cyclone tracks in the Arabian Sea

2018 ◽  
Vol 135 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 1413-1421 ◽  
Author(s):  
James P. Terry ◽  
Gennady Gienko
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Arabian Sea ◽  
Cyclone Tracks ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Tracks

Stochastic modelling of tropical cyclone tracks

2007 ◽  
Vol 66 (3) ◽  
pp. 475-490 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jonas Rumpf ◽  
Helga Weindl ◽  
Peter Höppe ◽  
Ernst Rauch ◽  
Volker Schmidt
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Stochastic Modelling ◽  
Cyclone Tracks ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Tracks

Role of surface warming in the northward shift of tropical cyclone tracks over the South China Sea in November

2017 ◽  
Vol 36 (5) ◽  
pp. 67-72 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jia Sun ◽  
Guihua Wang ◽  
Juncheng Zuo ◽  
Zheng Ling ◽  
Dahai Liu
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
South China Sea ◽  
South China ◽  
The South China Sea ◽  
The South ◽  
Surface Warming ◽  
China Sea ◽  
Cyclone Tracks ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Tracks

scholarly journals HITS: Hurricane Intensity and Track Simulator with North Atlantic Ocean Applications for Risk Assessment

2015 ◽  
Vol 54 (7) ◽  
pp. 1620-1636 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Nakamura ◽  
U. Lall ◽  
Y. Kushnir ◽  
B. Rajagopalan
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
North Atlantic Ocean ◽  
Probability Distributions ◽  
Model Fitting ◽  
Simulation Models ◽  
Annual Probability ◽  
Cyclone Tracks ◽  
Probabilistic Coverage ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Tracks

AbstractA nonparametric stochastic model is developed and tested for the simulation of tropical cyclone tracks. Tropical cyclone tracks demonstrate continuity and memory over many time and space steps. Clusters of tracks can be coherent, and the separation between clusters may be marked by geographical locations where groups of tracks diverge as a result of the physics of the underlying process. Consequently, their evolution may be non-Markovian. Markovian simulation models, as are often used, may produce tracks that potentially diverge or lose memory quicker than happens in nature. This is addressed here through a model that simulates tracks by randomly sampling track segments of varying length, selected from historical tracks. For performance evaluation, a spatial grid is imposed on the domain of interest. For each grid box, long-term tropical cyclone risk is assessed through the annual probability distributions of the number of storm hours, landfalls, winds, and other statistics. Total storm length is determined at birth by local distribution, and movement to other tropical cyclone segments by distance to neighbor tracks, comparative vector, and age of track. The model is also applied to the conditional simulation of hurricane tracks from specific positions for hurricanes that were not included in the model fitting so as to see whether the probabilistic coverage intervals properly cover the subsequent track. Consequently, tests of both the long-term probability distributions of hurricane landfall and of event simulations from the model are provided.

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