Fuzzy Bayesian Nets and Influence Diagrams with Cognitive Numerical Judgment of Imprecise Probabilities

2019 ◽  
pp. 149-168
Author(s):  
Aleksandar Janjić ◽  
Jelena D. Velimirović ◽  
Lazar Z. Velimirović
Keyword(s):  
Influence Diagrams ◽  
Imprecise Probabilities ◽  
Numerical Judgment

Elicitation of expert knowledge to develop decision support tools for use in water demand management planning

2007 ◽  
Vol 7 (5-6) ◽  
pp. 53-60
Author(s):  
D. Inman ◽  
D. Simidchiev ◽  
P. Jeffrey
Keyword(s):  
Decision Support ◽  
Water Demand ◽  
Expert Knowledge ◽  
Demand Management ◽  
Decision Processes ◽  
Conservation Strategy ◽  
Influence Diagrams ◽  
Decision Support Tools ◽  
Water Demand Management ◽  
Support Tools

This paper examines the use of influence diagrams (IDs) in water demand management (WDM) strategy planning with the specific objective of exploring how IDs can be used in developing computer-based decision support tools (DSTs) to complement and support existing WDM decision processes. We report the results of an expert consultation carried out in collaboration with water industry specialists in Sofia, Bulgaria. The elicited information is presented as influence diagrams and the discussion looks at their usefulness in WDM strategy design and the specification of suitable modelling techniques. The paper concludes that IDs themselves are useful in developing model structures for use in evidence-based reasoning models such as Bayesian Networks, and this is in keeping with the objectives set out in the introduction of integrating DSTs into existing decision processes. The paper will be of interest to modellers, decision-makers and scientists involved in designing tools to support resource conservation strategy implementation.

scholarly journals Risk Assessment of Circuit Breakers Using Influence Diagrams with Interval Probabilities

Symmetry ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (5) ◽  
pp. 737
Author(s):  
Jelena D. Velimirovic ◽  
Aleksandar Janjic
Keyword(s):  
Power System ◽  
Predictive Modelling ◽  
Optimal Time ◽  
Influence Diagrams ◽  
Circuit Breakers ◽  
Interval Probability ◽  
Complex Power ◽  
Interval Width ◽  
Credal Sets ◽  
The One

This paper deals with uncertainty, asymmetric information, and risk modelling in a complex power system. The uncertainty is managed by using probability and decision theory methods. More specifically, influence diagrams—as extended Bayesian network functions with interval probabilities represented through credal sets—were chosen for the predictive modelling scenario of replacing the most critical circuit breakers in optimal time. Namely, based on the available data on circuit breakers and other variables that affect the considered model of a complex power system, a group of experts was able to assess the situation using interval probabilities instead of crisp probabilities. Furthermore, the paper examines how the confidence interval width affects decision-making in this context and eliminates the information asymmetry of different experts. Based on the obtained results for each considered interval width separately on the action to be taken over the considered model in order to minimize the risk of the power system failure, it can be concluded that the proposed approach clearly indicates the advantages of using interval probability when making decisions in systems such as the one considered in this paper.

scholarly journals Planning of technical flood retention measures in large river basins under consideration of imprecise probabilities of multivariate hydrological loads

2009 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 1349-1363 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Nijssen ◽  
A. Schumann ◽  
M. Pahlow ◽  
B. Klein
Keyword(s):  
Flood Control ◽  
Large River ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Imprecise Probabilities ◽  
Flood Events ◽  
Modeling Tools ◽  
Statistical Characterization ◽  
Design Floods ◽  
Known Unknowns ◽  
Flood Waves

Abstract. As a result of the severe floods in Europe at the turn of the millennium, the ongoing shift from safety oriented flood control towards flood risk management was accelerated. With regard to technical flood control measures it became evident that the effectiveness of flood control measures depends on many different factors, which cannot be considered with single events used as design floods for planning. The multivariate characteristics of the hydrological loads have to be considered to evaluate complex flood control measures. The effectiveness of spatially distributed flood control systems differs for varying flood events. Event-based characteristics such as the spatial distribution of precipitation, the shape and volume of the resulting flood waves or the interactions of flood waves with the technical elements, e.g. reservoirs and flood polders, result in varying efficiency of these systems. Considering these aspects a flood control system should be evaluated with a broad range of hydrological loads to get a realistic assessment of its performance under different conditions. The consideration of this variety in flood control planning design was one particular aim of this study. Hydrological loads were described by multiple criteria. A statistical characterization of these criteria is difficult, since the data base is often not sufficient to analyze the variety of possible events. Hydrological simulations were used to solve this problem. Here a deterministic-stochastic flood generator was developed and applied to produce a large quantity of flood events which can be used as scenarios of possible hydrological loads. However, these simulations imply many uncertainties. The results will be biased by the basic assumptions of the modeling tools. In flood control planning probabilities are applied to characterize uncertainties. The probabilities of the simulated flood scenarios differ from probabilities which would be derived from long time series. With regard to these known unknowns the bias of the simulations was considered by imprecise probabilities. Probabilities, derived from measured flood data were combined with probabilities which were estimated from long simulated series. To consider imprecise probabilities, fuzzy sets were used to distinguish the results between more or less possible design floods. The need for such a differentiated view on the performance of flood protection systems is demonstrated by a case study.

scholarly journals A Note on Equivalence Classes of Directed Acyclic Independence Graphs

1993 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 409-412 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Madigan
Keyword(s):  
Model Selection ◽  
Expert Systems ◽  
Equivalence Classes ◽  
Influence Diagrams ◽  
Single Class ◽  
Selection Procedures ◽  
Probabilistic Expert Systems ◽  
Recent Developments ◽  
Independence Graphs ◽  
Markov Properties

Directed acyclic independence graphs (DAIGs) play an important role in recent developments in probabilistic expert systems and influence diagrams (Chyu [1]). The purpose of this note is to show that DAIGs can usefully be grouped into equivalence classes where the members of a single class share identical Markov properties. These equivalence classes can be identified via a simple graphical criterion. This result is particularly relevant to model selection procedures for DAIGs (see, e.g., Cooper and Herskovits [2] and Madigan and Raftery [4]) because it reduces the problem of searching among possible orientations of a given graph to that of searching among the equivalence classes.

scholarly journals Variable elimination for influence diagrams with super value nodes

2010 ◽  
Vol 51 (6) ◽  
pp. 615-631 ◽  
Author(s):  
Manuel Luque ◽  
Francisco Javier Díez
Keyword(s):  
Influence Diagrams ◽  
Variable Elimination
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