Precise or Imprecise Probabilities? Evidence from Survey Response Related to Late-onset Dementia

We elicit numerical expectations for late-onset dementia and long-term care (LTC) outcomes in the Health and Retirement Study. We provide the first empirical evidence on dementia-risk perceptions among dementia-free older Americans and establish important patterns regarding imprecision of subjective probabilities. Our elicitation distinguishes between precise and imprecise probabilities, while accounting for rounding of reports. Imprecise-probability respondents quantify imprecision using probability intervals. Nearly half of respondents hold imprecise dementia and LTC probabilities, while almost a third of precise-probability respondents round their reports. These proportions decrease substantially when LTC expectations are conditioned on hypothetical knowledge of the dementia state. Among rounding and imprecise-probability respondents, our elicitation yields two measures: an initial rounded or approximated response and a post-probe response, which we interpret as the respondent's true point or interval probability. We study the mapping between the two measures and find that respondents initially tend to over-report small probabilities and under-report large probabilities. Using a specific framework for study of LTC insurance choice with uncertain dementia state, we illustrate the dangers of ignoring imprecise or rounded probabilities for modelling and prediction of insurance demand.

Evidence Theory in Picture Fuzzy Set Environment

Picture fuzzy set is the most widely used tool to handle the uncertainty with the account of three membership degrees, namely, positive, negative, and neutral such that their sum is bound up to 1. It is the generalization of the existing intuitionistic fuzzy and fuzzy sets. This paper studies the interval probability problems of the picture fuzzy sets and their belief structure. The belief function is a vital tool to represent the uncertain information in a more effective manner. On the other hand, the Dempster–Shafer theory (DST) is used to combine the independent sources of evidence with the low conflict. Keeping the advantages of these, in the present paper, we present the concept of the evidence theory for the picture fuzzy set environment using DST. Under this, we define the concept of interval probability distribution and discuss its properties. Finally, an illustrative example related to the decision-making process is employed to illustrate the application of the presented work.

Risk Assessment of Circuit Breakers Using Influence Diagrams with Interval Probabilities

This paper deals with uncertainty, asymmetric information, and risk modelling in a complex power system. The uncertainty is managed by using probability and decision theory methods. More specifically, influence diagrams—as extended Bayesian network functions with interval probabilities represented through credal sets—were chosen for the predictive modelling scenario of replacing the most critical circuit breakers in optimal time. Namely, based on the available data on circuit breakers and other variables that affect the considered model of a complex power system, a group of experts was able to assess the situation using interval probabilities instead of crisp probabilities. Furthermore, the paper examines how the confidence interval width affects decision-making in this context and eliminates the information asymmetry of different experts. Based on the obtained results for each considered interval width separately on the action to be taken over the considered model in order to minimize the risk of the power system failure, it can be concluded that the proposed approach clearly indicates the advantages of using interval probability when making decisions in systems such as the one considered in this paper.

A Novel Blind Signal Detector Based on the Entropy of the Power Spectrum Subband Energy Ratio

In this paper, we present a novel blind signal detector based on the entropy of the power spectrum subband energy ratio (PSER), the detection performance of which is significantly better than that of the classical energy detector. This detector is a full power spectrum detection method, and does not require the noise variance or prior information about the signal to be detected. According to the analysis of the statistical characteristics of the power spectrum subband energy ratio, this paper proposes concepts such as interval probability, interval entropy, sample entropy, joint interval entropy, PSER entropy, and sample entropy variance. Based on the multinomial distribution, in this paper the formulas for calculating the PSER entropy and the variance of sample entropy in the case of pure noise are derived. Based on the mixture multinomial distribution, the formulas for calculating the PSER entropy and the variance of sample entropy in the case of the signals mixed with noise are also derived. Under the constant false alarm strategy, the detector based on the entropy of the power spectrum subband energy ratio is derived. The experimental results for the primary signal detection are consistent with the theoretical calculation results, which proves that the detection method is correct.

Cybersecurity risk assessment method of ICS based on attack-defense tree model

Cybersecurity risk assessment is an important means of effective response to network attacks on industrial control systems. However, cybersecurity risk assessment process is susceptible to subjective and objective effects. To solve this problem, this paper introduced cybersecurity risk assessment method based on fuzzy theory of Attack-Defense Tree model and probability cybersecurity risk assessment technology, and applied it to airport automatic fuel supply control system. Firstly, an Attack-Defense Tree model was established based on the potential cybersecurity threat of the system and deployed security equipment. Secondly, the interval probability of the attack path was calculated using the triangular fuzzy quantification of the interval probabilities of the attack leaf nodes and defensive leaf nodes. Next, the interval probability of the final path was defuzzified. Finally, the occurrence probability of each final attack path was obtained and a reference for the deployment of security equipment was provided. The main contributions of this paper are as follows: (1) considering the distribution of equipment in industrial control system, a new cybersecurity risk evaluation model of industrial control system is proposed. (2) The experimental results of this article are compared with other assessment technologies, and the trend is similar to that of other evaluation methods, which proves that the method was introduced in this paper is scientific. However, this method reduces the subjective impact of experts on cybersecurity risk assessment, and the assessment results are more objective and reasonable. (3) Applying this model to the airport oil supply automatic control system can comprehensively evaluate risk, solve the practical problems faced by the airport, and also provide an important basis for the cybersecurity protection scheme of the energy industry.

Interval probability hesitant fuzzy linguistic analytic hierarchy process and its application in talent selection

Hesitant fuzzy linguistic term set (HFLTS) can handle the qualitative and hesitant information in multiple attribute decision making (MADM) problems which are widely used in various fields. However, the experts’ evaluation of information is not completely reliable in the situation where their own knowledge background is insufficient. In order to deal with deviations due to incomplete reliability of the evaluation, this paper first proposes the interval probability hesitant fuzzy linguistic variable (IPHFLV), which takes the HFLTS as the evaluation part and adds a novel element-reliability of evaluation, thus can describe the different credibility of information evaluation due to the familiarity of experts with schemes and the differences in knowledge cognition. The operation rules and comparison methods are also illustrated. Particularly, under the inspiration of probability theory, we propose the possibility degree of the IPHFLVs. Then we propose IPHFL-AHP based on the AHP and interval probability hesitant fuzzy linguistic variable. Especially, the general geometric consistency index (G-GCI) based on the unbiased estimator of the variance is presented to measure the consistency and the iterative algorithm is constructed to improve the consistency. We use the possibility degree to calculate the priority vector to acquire the total ranking and introduce the process of IPHFL-AHP. Finally, case study of talent selection is given to illustrate the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed method.

Modal Interval Probability: Application to Bonus-Malus Systems

Classical intervals have been a very useful tool to analyze uncertain and imprecise models, in spite of operative and interpretative shortcomings. The recent introduction of modal intervals helps to overcome those limitations. In this paper, we apply modal intervals to the field of probability, including properties and axioms that form a theoretical framework applied to the Markovian analysis of Bonus-Malus systems in car insurance. We assume that the number of claims is a Poisson distribution and in order to include uncertainty in the model, the claim frequency is defined as a modal interval; therefore, the transition probabilities are modal interval probabilities. Finally, the model is exemplified through application to two different types of Bonus-Malus systems, and the attainment of uncertain long-run premiums expressed as modal intervals.