Toward data-driven solutions to interactive dynamic influence diagrams

With the availability of significant amount of data, data-driven decision making becomes an alternative way for solving complex multiagent decision problems. Instead of using domain knowledge to explicitly build decision models, the data-driven approach learns decisions (probably optimal ones) from available data. This removes the knowledge bottleneck in the traditional knowledge-driven decision making, which requires a strong support from domain experts. In this paper, we study data-driven decision making in the context of interactive dynamic influence diagrams (I-DIDs)—a general framework for multiagent sequential decision making under uncertainty. We propose a data-driven framework to solve the I-DIDs model and focus on learning the behavior of other agents in problem domains. The challenge is on learning a complete policy tree that will be embedded in the I-DIDs models due to limited data. We propose two new methods to develop complete policy trees for the other agents in the I-DIDs. The first method uses a simple clustering process, while the second one employs sophisticated statistical checks. We analyze the proposed algorithms in a theoretical way and experiment them over two problem domains.

Risk Assessment of Circuit Breakers Using Influence Diagrams with Interval Probabilities

This paper deals with uncertainty, asymmetric information, and risk modelling in a complex power system. The uncertainty is managed by using probability and decision theory methods. More specifically, influence diagrams—as extended Bayesian network functions with interval probabilities represented through credal sets—were chosen for the predictive modelling scenario of replacing the most critical circuit breakers in optimal time. Namely, based on the available data on circuit breakers and other variables that affect the considered model of a complex power system, a group of experts was able to assess the situation using interval probabilities instead of crisp probabilities. Furthermore, the paper examines how the confidence interval width affects decision-making in this context and eliminates the information asymmetry of different experts. Based on the obtained results for each considered interval width separately on the action to be taken over the considered model in order to minimize the risk of the power system failure, it can be concluded that the proposed approach clearly indicates the advantages of using interval probability when making decisions in systems such as the one considered in this paper.

Public Policy Analysis: An Integrated Approach

The book defines and illustrates phases of policy analysis, describe elements of integrated policy analysis, distinguish four strategies of policy analysis, contrast reconstructed logic and logic-in-use, describe the structure of a policy argument and its elements and interpret scorecards, spreadsheets, influence diagrams, decision trees, and argument maps.

Case Article—Suncrest AgriBusiness Company: Exploiting the Flexibility of Backup Capacity

The primary objective of the case study is to help students understand, model, and solve capacity planning problems (i) when the production yield is uncertain and (ii) if the yield of first production is low, the product can be produced a second time. The dimension of random yield emphasizes supply chain management challenges beyond the traditional newsvendor problem, which has a nice closed-form solution. The dimension of operational flexibility underscores the importance of modeling skills, such as influence diagrams, that can be used to brainstorm, model, and solve new problems. Extensive use of the case in graduate supply chain management courses shows that in the absence of a mathematical model, students systematically deviate from optimal capacity usage. Usually, the presence of backup flexibility reduces first-period production. However, students’ responses often suggest cutting first production too much. When it is available, students consistently overuse the flexibility of second-period production. Overall, students believed the case was challenging and that it provides a valuable learning experience.

Integer Programming on the Junction Tree Polytope for Influence Diagrams

Influence diagrams (ID) and limited memory influence diagrams (LIMID) are flexible tools to represent discrete stochastic optimization problems, with the Markov decision process (MDP) and partially observable MDP as standard examples. More precisely, given random variables considered as vertices of an acyclic digraph, a probabilistic graphical model defines a joint distribution via the conditional distributions of vertices given their parents. In an ID, the random variables are represented by a probabilistic graphical model whose vertices are partitioned into three types: chance, decision, and utility vertices. The user chooses the distribution of the decision vertices conditionally to their parents in order to maximize the expected utility. Leveraging the notion of rooted junction tree, we present a mixed integer linear formulation for solving an ID, as well as valid inequalities, which lead to a computationally efficient algorithm. We also show that the linear relaxation yields an optimal integer solution for instances that can be solved by the “single policy update,” the default algorithm for addressing IDs.

Reasoning with Contextual Knowledge and Influence Diagrams

Influence diagrams (IDs) are well-known formalisms, which extend Bayesian networks to model decision situations under uncertainty. Although they are convenient as a decision theoretic tool, their knowledge representation ability is limited in capturing other crucial notions such as logical consistency. In this article, we complement IDs with the light-weight description logic (DL) EL to overcome such limitations. We consider a setup where DL axioms hold in some contexts, yet the actual context is uncertain. The framework benefits from the convenience of using DL as a domain knowledge representation language and the modelling strength of IDs to deal with decisions over contexts in the presence of contextual uncertainty. We define related reasoning problems and study their computational complexity.