Probabilistic Assessment and Sensitivity Analysis in Stability Studies

2020 ◽  
pp. 75-90
Author(s):  
Yue Zhu
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Probabilistic Assessment ◽  
Stability Studies

Seismic hazard sensitivity analysis: A multi-parameter approach

1991 ◽  
Vol 81 (3) ◽  
pp. 796-817
Author(s):  
Nitzan Rabinowitz ◽  
David M. Steinberg
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Subjective Probability ◽  
Probability Distributions ◽  
Input Parameter ◽  
The Other ◽  
Probabilistic Assessment ◽  
Input Parameters ◽  
Parameter Approach

Abstract We propose a novel multi-parameter approach for conducting seismic hazard sensitivity analysis. This approach allows one to assess the importance of each input parameter at a variety of settings of the other input parameters and thus provides a much richer picture than standard analyses, which assess each input parameter only at the default settings of the other parameters. We illustrate our method with a sensitivity analysis of seismic hazard for Jerusalem. In this example, we find several input parameters whose importance depends critically on the settings of other input parameters. This phenomenon, which cannot be detected by a standard sensitivity analysis, is easily diagnosed by our method. The multi-parameter approach can also be used in the context of a probabilistic assessment of seismic hazard that incorporates subjective probability distributions for the input parameters.

Probabilistic Assessment and Sensitivity Analysis of Marginal Price of Different Services in Power Markets

2013 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 873-880 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alireza Nouri ◽  
Mohammad Afkousi-Paqaleh ◽  
Seyed Hamid Hosseini
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Power Markets ◽  
Probabilistic Assessment ◽  
Marginal Price

Research on a probabilistic assessment method based on defective casing safety evaluation criteria in thermal recovery wells

2014 ◽  
Vol 228 (18) ◽  
pp. 3462-3470 ◽  
Author(s):  
XH Zhu ◽  
RQ Sun ◽  
H Tong
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Evaluation Criteria ◽  
Safety Evaluation ◽  
Assessment Method ◽  
Thermal Recovery ◽  
Von Mises Stress ◽  
Probabilistic Assessment ◽  
Deterministic Approach ◽  
Corrosion Defects ◽  
Von Mises

Due to the fact that the complexity of loads and uncertainties of random variables affect the reliability of defective casings, with consideration to the disadvantages of the deterministic approach, in this paper a probabilistic assessment method is employed based on previously established safety evaluation criteria for casings with corrosion defects in thermal recovery wells. In addition, Monte Carlo simulation is proposed to analyze the casing reliability under different remaining strengths. Sensitivity analysis is then performed to rank the influence of various variables for casing failure, and finally the influence law of the main parameters on the maximum Von Mises stress of defective casing is summarized.

ECAs, Probabilities and Axial Misalignment

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew Cosham ◽  
Kenneth A. Macdonald
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Wall Thickness ◽  
Input Data ◽  
Structural Reliability ◽  
Limit State ◽  
Probabilistic Assessment ◽  
Safety Factors ◽  
Partial Safety Factors ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Girth Welds

An engineering critical assessment (ECA) is commonly conducted during the design of an offshore pipeline in order to determine the tolerable size of flaws in the girth welds. API 579-1/ASME FFS-1 2016 and BS 7910:2013+A1:2015 Incorporating Corrigenda Nos. 1 and 2 give guidance on conducting fitness-for-service assessments of cracks and crack-like flaws. The essential data required for an assessment (nature, position and orientation of flaw; structural and weld geometry; stresses; yield and tensile strength; fracture toughness; etc.) is subject to uncertainty. That uncertainty is addressed through the use of bounding values. The use of extreme bounding values might be overly-conservative. A sensitivity analysis is one way of investigating the sensitivity of the results of an assessment to the input data. A structural reliability-based assessment (a probabilistic assessment) is an alternative. A probabilistic assessment is significantly more complicated than a deterministic assessment. API 579-1/ASME FFS-1 and BS 7910:2013 note that a sensitivity analysis, partial safety factors or a probabilistic analysis can be used to evaluate uncertainties in the input parameters. Annex K of BS 7910:2013 gives partial safety factors for different combinations of target reliability and variability of input data. ISO 16708:2006 gives guidance on the use of structural reliability-based limit-state methods in the design and operation of pipelines. The structural reliability-based assessment of circumferentially-orientated, surface crack-like flaw in a girth weld in a pipeline is used to illustrate the significance of the distributions of the difference between the wall thickness and the ovality (out-of-roundness) of two pipes when calculating the bounding value of the stress concentration factor due to axial misalignment. The (assumed) distributions of diameter, wall thickness, out-of-roundness, yield strength, etc. are based on Annex B of ISO 16708:2006. The (nominal) probability of failure is calculated. It is then used to inform the choice of an appropriate bounding value (i.e. a characteristic value) for axial misalignment.

Sensitivity analysis in power system dynamic stability studies

1981 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 59-66 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michele Brucoli ◽  
Bruno Maione ◽  
Ernesto Margarita ◽  
Francesco Torelli
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Power System ◽  
Dynamic Stability ◽  
System Dynamic ◽  
Stability Studies ◽  
Power System Dynamic Stability
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