Stochastic Analysis for Short- and Long-Term Forecasting of Latin American Country Risk Indexes

Author(s):  
Julián Pucheta ◽  
Gustavo Alasino ◽  
Carlos Salas ◽  
Martín Herrera ◽  
Cristian Rodriguez Rivero
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Waqas ◽  
Songhua Xu ◽  
Linyun Zhou

Abstract We utilized the average weekly estimated reproduction number data of COVID-19 from March (2020–2021). By applying ARIMA and L-moments methodology, short-and-long-term forecasting of R0 is made for Govt. officials and public health experts to take before-time policy measures to control the spread of novel coronavirus. This study helps medical staff to measure the expected demand of COVID-19 vaccine doses. We applied various ARIMA models on each country’s data and the best selected based on RMSE, AIC, and BIC for point and interval forecasting. Application L-Moments techniques selected GLO, GEV, and GNO distributions and quantile estimation with return period calculations. The forecasting shows that maximum countries mean R0 > 1, which is still a serious threat and can lead to heath disaster. The forecasting provided an alarming situation in the coming months for India, France, Turkey, and Spain; health experts should take strict measures because the cases rise due to the high R0 forecast. The USA, Russia, and the UK mean R0 will not suddenly increase; these countries consistent in COVID-19 R0 control. We find that even the significant population differences prevail among selected countries, the R0 is still high in maximum countries, so its a dire need to take strict control actions to minimize the R0 for public safety.


2015 ◽  
Vol 51 (3) ◽  
pp. 229-241 ◽  
Author(s):  
V. A. Shirokov ◽  
P. P. Firstov ◽  
E. O. Makarov ◽  
I. I. Stepanov ◽  
V. I. Stepanov

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (20) ◽  
pp. 9592
Author(s):  
José I. Huertas ◽  
Sonja Stöffler ◽  
Trinidad Fernández ◽  
Xanin García ◽  
Roberto Castañeda ◽  
...  

As the first step toward implementing strategies to improve mobility in urban centers, governmental authorities must assess their present situation in order to identify the most effective actions that should be included in their short and long-term plans. However, there is not a well-established methodology to carry out such an assessment. The already existing ones are subjective, incomplete, costly, and hard to implement, especially for the case of Latin American (LATAM) countries. This paper proposes a comprehensive methodology to carry out this assessment. It uses recent advances in information technologies and includes the use of web map services, telematics data, and low-cost vehicle emission tests. As an example of application, a mobility assessment was carried out for Saltillo, a medium-sized city in northeastern Mexico, which is considered a typical city in LATAM countries. Results indicate that this methodology can be replicated at a low incremental cost and that it leads towards the identification of the most sustainable (economic, environmental, and social) actions that should be implemented in these cities considering their local circumstances.


1973 ◽  
Vol PAS-92 (6) ◽  
pp. 1966-1972 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Corpening ◽  
N.D. Reppen ◽  
R.J. Ringlee

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (08) ◽  
pp. 704-717
Author(s):  
Julián Pucheta ◽  
Carlos Salas ◽  
Martín Herrera ◽  
Cristian Rodriguez Rivero ◽  
Gustavo Alasino

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alejandra Abufhele ◽  
Kasim Allel ◽  
Marigen Narea ◽  
Jane Waldfogel

Abstract Background More than 20% of the children around the world were stunted in 2018. The situation is not any better in Latin American countries, even though stunting prevalence has been declining since 2000. Stunting has adverse consequences on children: severe short- and long-term health and functional effects, poor cognition and educational performance, low adult wages, and productivity loss. Methods This study compares maternal education gradients in height-for-age z-scores (HAZs) and stunting prevalence in children between two and four years of age from eight different Latin American countries: Chile, Uruguay, Costa Rica, Paraguay, Mexico, El Salvador, Nicaragua, and Peru. Results Results show that the prevalence of stunting varies widely across Latin American countries. Having a mother with tertiary education increases HAZs in every country (except Paraguay), compared to having a mother with primary education or less. In some countries, there is also a difference in HAZs associated with secondary versus primary maternal education. With regard to stunting, maternal education is a crucial determinant to decrease the odds of being stunted in early years in countries with the highest stunting prevalence (≈ 20%); however, this is not the case for countries where the prevalence is low (< 5%). Conclusions We found that maternal education is associated with height and stunting in preschool-aged children in our sampled Latin American countries. The association’s magnitude is higher for LMICs than for countries with a higher income per capita in the zone (i.e., Chile and Uruguay). These results suggest that future policies aiming to increase maternal education will improve children’s height-for-age and decrease their risk of stunting.


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