scholarly journals Forecasting of COVID-19 Reproduction Number by ARIMA Methodology and Quantile Estimation based on Best Fit Distribution by L- moments for Top-10 Affected Countries

Author(s):  
Muhammad Waqas ◽  
Songhua Xu ◽  
Linyun Zhou

Abstract We utilized the average weekly estimated reproduction number data of COVID-19 from March (2020–2021). By applying ARIMA and L-moments methodology, short-and-long-term forecasting of R0 is made for Govt. officials and public health experts to take before-time policy measures to control the spread of novel coronavirus. This study helps medical staff to measure the expected demand of COVID-19 vaccine doses. We applied various ARIMA models on each country’s data and the best selected based on RMSE, AIC, and BIC for point and interval forecasting. Application L-Moments techniques selected GLO, GEV, and GNO distributions and quantile estimation with return period calculations. The forecasting shows that maximum countries mean R0 > 1, which is still a serious threat and can lead to heath disaster. The forecasting provided an alarming situation in the coming months for India, France, Turkey, and Spain; health experts should take strict measures because the cases rise due to the high R0 forecast. The USA, Russia, and the UK mean R0 will not suddenly increase; these countries consistent in COVID-19 R0 control. We find that even the significant population differences prevail among selected countries, the R0 is still high in maximum countries, so its a dire need to take strict control actions to minimize the R0 for public safety.

2017 ◽  
Vol 10 (9) ◽  
pp. 141 ◽  
Author(s):  
Min Liu

This paper examines whether and the extent to which requiring the audit engagement partner (EP) signature influences on information asymmetry, analysts’ forecast errors, and forecast dispersion. I predict and find that, ceteris paribus, there is a significant decline in information asymmetry, analysts’ forecast errors and forecast dispersion from the pre- to post-EP signature period in the UK over both of short-term (i.e., 2008-2010) and long-term (i.e., 2004-2014). These findings hold when using a control sample approach, indicating that my results are not likely due to the effect of concurrent events and correlated omitted variables. These findings suggest that implementing the EP signature requirement benefits analysts forecasts over a short- and long-term.


2018 ◽  
Vol 74 (6) ◽  
pp. 1318-1338 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sarah Higgins

Purpose Digital curation addresses the technical, administrative and financial ecology required to ensure that digital information remains accessible and usable over the long term. The purpose of this paper is to trace digital curation’s disciplinary emergence and examine its position within the information sciences domain in terms of theoretical principles, using a case study of developments in the UK and the USA. Design/methodology/approach Theoretical principles regarding disciplinary development and the identity of information science as a discipline are applied to a case study of the development of digital curation in the UK and the USA to identify the maturity of digital curation and its position in the information science gamut. Findings Digital curation is identified as a mature discipline which is a sub-meta-discipline of information science. As such digital curation has reach across all disciplines and sub-disciplines of information science and has the potential to become the overarching paradigm. Practical implications These findings could influence digital curation’s development from applied discipline to profession within both its educational and professional domains. Originality/value The disciplinary development of digital curation within dominant theoretical models has not hitherto been articulated.


2019 ◽  
pp. 1-3 ◽  
Author(s):  
Simon Gilbody ◽  
Emily Peckham ◽  
Della Bailey ◽  
Catherine Arundel ◽  
Paul Heron ◽  
...  

Summary Smoking contributes to health inequalities for people with severe mental illness (SMI). Although smoking cessation interventions are effective in the short term, there are few long-term trial-based estimates of abstinence. The SCIMITAR trials programme includes the largest trial to date of a smoking cessation intervention for people with SMI, but this was underpowered to detect anticipated long-term quit rates. By pooling pilot and full-trial data we found that quit rates were maintained at 12 months (OR = 1.67, 95% CI 1.02–2.73, P = 0.04). Policymakers can now be confident that bespoke smoking cessation interventions produce successful short- and long-term quitting.


European View ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 19 (2) ◽  
pp. 206-211
Author(s):  
Magnus Norell

The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has affected the countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region in different ways, and the varying political structures, economic conditions and civil-crisis preparedness of the states in this region have resulted in it being handled in a variety of ways too. Even if it is difficult to assess how the crisis has affected the MENA region in more detail due to the region’s general volatility and ongoing conflicts in Libya and Syria, current trends have so far not shown a diminution in regional conflicts. Nor have the pandemic’s consequences in the Middle East lessened Europe’s problems with the region. Thus the article argues that COVID-19 has not really led to a decrease in the conflicts and wars plaguing the MENA region, and that, therefore, the effects for Europe—both short- and long-term—will still be felt, as existing problems will continue to affect Europe.


2005 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 71-78 ◽  
Author(s):  
Swaran P. Singh ◽  
Helen L. Fisher

By focusing therapeutic effort on the early stages of psychotic disorders, effective early intervention should improve short- and long-term outcomes. Strategies include pre-psychotic and prodromal interventions to prevent emergence of psychosis, detecting untreated cases in the community and facilitating recovery in established cases of psychosis. The evidence base for each of these strategies is currently limited, although several international trials are under way. The Department of Health in the UK has announced the intention of setting up 50 early intervention services nationally, several of which are already operational. In this article, we briefly discuss the differing ways in which early intervention is conceptualised, summarise the evidence supporting it in established cases of psychosis, suggest appropriate service models and describe two early intervention services in south-west London.


2012 ◽  
Vol 126 (9) ◽  
pp. 966-969 ◽  
Author(s):  
R Exley ◽  
J M Bernstein ◽  
B Brennan ◽  
M P Rothera

AbstractObjective:We report a case of rhabdomyosarcoma of the trachea in a 14-month-old child, and we present the first reported use of proton beam therapy for this tumour.Case report:A 14-month-old girl presented acutely with a seven-day history of biphasic stridor. Emergency endoscopic debulking of a posterior tracheal mass was undertaken. Histological examination revealed an embryonal rhabdomyosarcoma with anaplasia. Multimodality therapy with surgery and chemotherapy was administered in the UK, and proton beam therapy in the USA.Conclusion:Only three cases of rhabdomyosarcoma of the trachea have previously been reported in the world literature. This is the first reported case of treatment of this tumour with proton beam therapy. Compared with conventional radiotherapy, proton beam therapy may confer improved long-term outcome in children, with benefits including reduced irradiation of the spinal cord.


Author(s):  
Swati Arora ◽  
Rishabh Jain ◽  
Harendra Pal Singh

In Wuhan city of China, an episode of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) happened. during late December and it has quickly spread to all places in the world. Until May 29, 2020, cases were high in the USA with 1.7 Million, Russia with approximately 387 thousand, the UK with 271 thousand confirmed cases. Everybody on the planet is anxious to know when the coronavirus pandemic will end. In this scourge, most nations force extreme medication measures to contain the spread of COVID-19. Modeling has been utilized broadly by every national government and the World Health Organization in choosing the best procedures to seek after in relieving the impacts of COVID-19. Many epidemiological models are studied to understand the spread of the illness and its prediction to find maximum capacity for human-to-human transmission so that control techniques can be adopted. Also, arrangements for the medical facilities required such as hospital beds and medical supplies can be made in advance. Many models are used to anticipate the results keeping in view the present scenario. There is an urgent need to study the various models and their impacts. In this study, we present a systematic literature review on epidemiological models for the outbreak of novel coronavirus in India. The epidemiological dynamics of COVID-19 is also studied. Here, In addition, an attempt to take out the results from the exploration and comparing it with the real data. The study helps to choose the models that are progressive and dependable to predict and give legitimate methods for various strategies.


2016 ◽  
Vol 130 (S2) ◽  
pp. S68-S70 ◽  
Author(s):  
J J Homer ◽  
M J Fardy

AbstractThis is the official guideline endorsed by the specialty associations involved in the care of head and neck cancer patients in the UK. Surgery is one of the key modalities used in head and neck cancer treatment. Recent advances and a greater awareness of the short- and long-term toxicities associated with non-surgical modalities and newer technologies that permit minimal access resections have led to a resurgence in surgery. This paper provides an overview of the role of surgery in head and neck cancer practice.


2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hatem A Hejaz ◽  
Ameera Zalloum ◽  
Bara’a Shalaldeh ◽  
Taima’ Alnatsheh ◽  
Rozan Attili

Objective: Coronavirus is a positive-strand RNA virus in which consists of a certain virus that infects both animals and humans; including the recent one which is known as severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV). Coronavirus has been a significant threat in November 2019. Methods: The review focus on full coverage of the epidemic state of the virus worldwide, major diagnostic approaches used, the therapeutic drugs types and approaches used, the pathology and pathogenesis of the disease in infected patients and its consequences in addition to the virus and the major guidelines for the disease management in different countries. Different literature and guidelines among different databases were searched. Literature reviewing was conducted using the following search engines, Google Scholar, Medline, Pub Med, Web of Science, and Science Direct, so in order to better reveal the published peer-reviewed articles about  SARS-CoV, MERS-CoV, and 2019-nCoV. Results: SARS-CoV data collected in this review will give help to medical researchers and further decision-makers, social and economic makers concerned with health status, and pandemic infections among countries in different aspects. As understanding, the disease and the different responses to this virus could help to find immune-based therapeutics or/ and traditional medicines. By June 1st2020, the pandemic cases are about six million worldwide and the number is rising everyday sharply. While the actual and accurate causes and effective treatment of COVID-19 are still unknown or unavailable and the number of active cases of the infection is rising every day which rising panic and concern on public health worldwide. The greatest number of new cases and deaths of COVID-19 were reported in the USA, Brazil, Russia, Spain, the UK, Italy, Germany, and France. This growing number of cases is due to the person-to-person transmission that has been reported both in and outside of China. In Palestine, the pandemic cases were about 600 by the end of May 2020. In June 28th 2020 coronavirus cases were 10,088,576, deaths 501,442, and recovered 5,466,534 globally. The cases increased very sharply within a short period (about three weeks); in Palestine, the spread of the disease is also nearly tripled by this time (1,815 cases reported). The outbreak of the disease is extremely very fast as by the end of June (within only one month period), the cases have been nearly doubled as the coronavirus cases confirmed were 10,690,566, deaths 516,393 (8%), and recovered are 5,856,464 worldwide. The high incidence rate and cases were also in the USA (2,751,571), then Brazil (1,426,913), Russia (654,405), etc. In Palestine by this time, at the end of June, the reported cases were increased very sharply by about six times; as more than 3,095 cases were reported including East Jerusalem (337 cases), with 11 deaths. The highest cases (1947 cases) were in Hebron Governorate; with these confirmed cases Palestine ranked 97 among 215 countries that have coronavirus; with the highest outbreak rate in the world; compare to population number. Conclusions: The pandemic by COVID-19 is a very dangerous issue affecting people worldwide. Without fundamental therapeutic interventions, current management is to reduce the virus spread and provide supportive care for diseased patients. There is an urgent need to develop targeted therapies. Understanding the disease and the different responses to this virus could help to find immune-based therapeutics or/ and traditional medicines. It is important to have the latest information but we must ensure that information is coming from trustworthy sources. We have collected a variety of helpful resources related to COVID-19. We also have several initiatives to get the public involved in our work and educated on how to make informed health decisions. The global impact of this new pandemic is yet uncertain.


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