Elementary Bayesian Analyses

Author(s):  
Edwin J. Green ◽  
Andrew O. Finley ◽  
William E. Strawderman
Keyword(s):  
2017 ◽  
Vol 22 (2) ◽  
pp. 288-303 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joseph W. Houpt ◽  
Andrew Heathcote ◽  
Ami Eidels

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher Chabris ◽  
Patrick Ryan Heck ◽  
Jaclyn Mandart ◽  
Daniel Jacob Benjamin ◽  
Daniel J. Simons

Williams and Bargh (2008) reported that holding a hot cup of coffee caused participants to judge a person’s personality as warmer, and that holding a therapeutic heat pad caused participants to choose rewards for other people rather than for themselves. These experiments featured large effects (r = .28 and .31), small sample sizes (41 and 53 participants), and barely statistically significant results. We attempted to replicate both experiments in field settings with more than triple the sample sizes (128 and 177) and double-blind procedures, but found near-zero effects (r = –.03 and .02). In both cases, Bayesian analyses suggest there is substantially more evidence for the null hypothesis of no effect than for the original physical warmth priming hypothesis.


2001 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 114-122 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steven H. Sheingold

Decision making in health care has become increasingly reliant on information technology, evidence-based processes, and performance measurement. It is therefore a time at which it is of critical importance to make data and analyses more relevant to decision makers. Those who support Bayesian approaches contend that their analyses provide more relevant information for decision making than do classical or “frequentist” methods, and that a paradigm shift to the former is long overdue. While formal Bayesian analyses may eventually play an important role in decision making, there are several obstacles to overcome if these methods are to gain acceptance in an environment dominated by frequentist approaches. Supporters of Bayesian statistics must find more accommodating approaches to making their case, especially in finding ways to make these methods more transparent and accessible. Moreover, they must better understand the decision-making environment they hope to influence. This paper discusses these issues and provides some suggestions for overcoming some of these barriers to greater acceptance.


2021 ◽  
pp. 1-33
Author(s):  
Katherine M Appleton ◽  
Jessica Rajska ◽  
Sarah M Warwick ◽  
Peter J Rogers

Abstract This work investigated the effects of repeated sweet taste exposure at breakfast on perceptions and intakes of other sweet foods, while also examining effects due to duration of exposure (1/3 weeks), test context (breakfast/lunch), and associations between taste perceptions and intakes. Using a randomised controlled parallel-groups design, participants (N=54, 18 male, mean age: 23.9±5.8yrs, mean BMI: 23.6±3.5kg/m2) were randomized to consume either a sweet breakfast (cereal with sucralose) (N=27) or an equicaloric non-sweet breakfast (plain cereal) (N=27) for 3 weeks. On days 0 (baseline), 7, and 21, pleasantness, desire to eat and sweetness were rated for other sweet and non-sweet foods, and sweet food consumption was assessed in an ad-libitum meal at breakfast and lunch. Using intention-to-treat analyses, no statistically significant effects of exposure were found at breakfast (largest F(2,104)=1.84, p=0.17, ηp2=0.03), or lunch (largest F(1,52)=1.22, p=0.27, ηp2=0.02), and using Bayesian analyses, the evidence for an absence of effect in all rating measures was strong to very strong (smallest BF01=297.97 (BF01error=2.68%)). Associations between ratings of pleasantness, desire to eat and intake were found (smallest r=0.137, p<0.01). Effects over time regardless of exposure were also found: sugars and percent energy consumed from sweet foods increased throughout the study smallest (F(2,104)=4.54, p=0.01, ηp2=0.08). These findings demonstrate no effects of sweet taste exposure at breakfast for 1 or 3 weeks on pleasantness, desire for, sweetness or intakes of other sweet foods in either the same (breakfast) or in a different (lunch) meal context.


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