Slip Rate Estimation on the North Anatolian Fault Using Geomorphology and Paleoclimate Chronology: The Ganos Fault, Turkey

Author(s):  
Murat Ersen Aksoy ◽  
Mustapha Meghraoui ◽  
Ziyadin Çakır ◽  
Matthieu Ferry
2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zeynep Yılmaz ◽  
Ali Özgün Konca ◽  
Semih Ergintav

<p>The North Anatolian Fault (NAF) produced multiple earthquakes of M>7 throughout the 20th century, while the part of NAF beneath Sea of Marmara did not rupture during this period. Analysis of the Main Marmara Fault's interseismic behavior, the most active branch of the North Anatolian Fault in this region, in terms of locking depth and fault slip rate is critical for evaluating the region's seismic risk with a population of more than 20 million, as it provides information about the seismic moment deficit that may release in a potential future earthquake.</p><p>In this study, we modeled the Main Marmara Fault's interseismic locking with realistic geometry and 3D structure including sedimentary basins, by implementing a 3D finite element approach and using interseismic GPS velocities. We have optimized the fits with GPS data by evaluating cases where each fault segment is constrained by a fault slip rate below a predefined locking depth ranging from 0 to 20 km. Preliminary models reveal that a difference in locking depth is required between the Western Marmara and the eastern end of the Ganos Segment entering the Sea of Marmara. This result, which is consistent with seismicity studies and other previous studies using 1D profiles shows that the strain accumulation under Western Marmara is less and that the locking depths or couplings are not similar in these two segments. For the Princes' Islands Segment, further analysis is required due to complexity in the GPS data. Recent earthquakes along Silivri also indicate that the strain accumulation is complex with most mechanisms showing significant thrust component. We have also calculated various possible strain accumulation patterns and compared the strain rate field around the Main Marmara Fault. Our results show that in most cases the change in the seismicity of each segment is consistent with the interseismic behavior associated with its fault locking.</p><p>(This research has been supported by Boğaziçi University Scientific Research Projects Coordination Unit. Project Number: 15022, 2019)</p>


2019 ◽  
Vol 56 (11) ◽  
pp. 1218-1238 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cengiz Zabcı

The slip history of the North Anatolian Fault (NAF) is constrained by displacement and age data for the last 550 ka. First, I classified all available geological estimates as members of three groups: Model I for the eastern, Model II for the central, and Model III for the western segments where the North Anatolian Shear Zone gradually widens from east to west. The short-term uniform slip solutions yield similar results, 17.5 +4/–3.5 mm/a, 18.9 +3.7/–3.3 mm/a, and 16.9 +1.2/–1.1 mm/a from east to the west. Although these model rates do not show any significant spatial variations among themselves, the correlation with geodetic estimates, ranging between 15 mm/a and 28 mm/a for different sections of the NAF, displays significant discrepancies especially for the central and western segments of the fault. Discrepancies suggest that most strain is accumulated along the NAF, but some portion of it is distributed along secondary structures of the North Anatolian Shear Zone. The deformation rate is constant at least for the last 195 ka, whereas the limited number of data show strain transfer from northern to the southern strand between 195 and 320 ka BP in the Marmara Region when the incremental slip rate decreases to 13.2 +3.1/–2.9 mm/a for the northern strand of the NAF. Considering the possible uncertainties of incremental displacements and their timings, more studies on slip rate are needed at different sites, including major structural elements of the North Anatolian Shear Zone. Although most of the strain is localized along the main displacement zone, the NAF, secondary structures are still capable of generating earthquakes that can hardly reach Mw 7.


2013 ◽  
Vol 40 (17) ◽  
pp. 4555-4559 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hulya Kurt ◽  
C. C. Sorlien ◽  
L. Seeber ◽  
M. S. Steckler ◽  
D. J. Shillington ◽  
...  

2004 ◽  
Vol 227 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 411-426 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Polonia ◽  
L. Gasperini ◽  
A. Amorosi ◽  
E. Bonatti ◽  
G. Bortoluzzi ◽  
...  

2018 ◽  
Vol 738-739 ◽  
pp. 92-111 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aynur Dikbaş ◽  
H. Serdar Akyüz ◽  
Mustapha Meghraoui ◽  
Matthieu Ferry ◽  
Erhan Altunel ◽  
...  

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Romain Jolivet ◽  
Bertrand Rouet-Leduc ◽  
Jorge Jara ◽  
Manon Dalaison ◽  
Claudia Hulbert ◽  
...  

<p>While some faults remain locked for tens to hundreds of years, some active faults slip slowly, either continuously or episodically. The discovery of slow, generally silent, slip at the turn of the century led to a profound modification of our understanding of the mechanics of faulting, shedding light on the dynamics of fault slip. Such dynamics areis controlled by the past history of stress along the fault plane (i.e. historical ruptures), fluids circulating in the crust and the rheology of the crust and fault plane. Understanding the influence of these different factors requires dense observations, as suggested by the large range of spatial and temporal scales involved in the control of the slip velocity along a fault. Specifically, the smallest scales of slow slip have beenwere inferred by the observation of tremors or low frequency events, interpreted as the chatter of a fault plane while it slips slowly. We are missing direct observations of such kilometer-scale slow slip events and continental creeping faults are an obvious target for such observationsfor such observations.</p><p> </p><p>Aseismic slip along the North Anatolian Fault was recognized in the 1960’s by the observation of offset man-made features without earthquakes recorded. Following these early observations, multiple geodetic studies focused on recording aseismic slip and analyzed the average rate of shallow slow slip in the vicinity of the town of Ismetpasa. GPS, InSAR and creepmeter data all converge toward an aseismic slip rate reaching 1 cm/yr in places, with significant along- strike variations. Furthermore, earlyHowever, creepmeter measurements in the 80’s, confirmed by records from a more recent instrument, suggest aseismic slip is currently episodic, occurring in bursts of slip. Recent InSAR data from the Cosmo-SkyMed constellation captured a month-long slow slip event with a maximum of 2 cm/yr of slip.</p><p> </p><p>We propose to analyze the geodetic record to search for slow slip events over the 2015-2020 period. We take advantage of a dense network of continuous GNSS stations installed in 2017 and of time series of Sentinel 1 SAR data to identify at least 3 slow slip events along the North Anatolian Fault. Thanks to the dense temporal sampling of the GNSS records, we describe faithfullyobserve the onset of slow slip. We use a deep learning algorithm to extract the surface signature of the slow slip events from the InSAR time series, highlighting a slow rupture front propagating along strike. We compare the occurrences of slow slip events with the local fault geometry, the average distribution of kinematic coupling and the historical seismicity. We discuss the mechanical implications of such detailed description of slow slip along an active fault. In conclusion, while slow slip rate averaged over periods longer than 2-3 years seems constant over the last 40 years, identification of slow slip events suggests this apparently constant rate results from slow slip events over multiple spatial and temporal scales.</p>


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alpay Özdemir ◽  
Uğur Doğan ◽  
Jorge Jara ◽  
Romain Jolivet ◽  
Semih Ergintav ◽  
...  

<p>Twenty six years after the Mw 7.3 Bolu/Gerede Earthquake of 1944, Ambraseys (1970) first recognized, in the offset of a manmade wall constructed across the fault in 1957, the signature of slow aseismic slip along the central segment of the North Anatolian Fault (NAF). Following this discovery, many studies have characterized the behaviour of this aseismic slip with land- and space-based geodetic techniques, and with creepmeters. It is now recognized that the rate of aseismic slip decreases logarithmically from more than 3 cm/yr in the years following the Gerede Earthquake to approximately 6±2 mm/yr today. Of this rate, approximately 1.2 mm/year is residual afterslip and the remainder appears to be linear creep interrupted by creep events. In the last two decades, InSAR allowed the derivation of maps of ground velocities that indicates aseismic slip extends along a 100-km-long section of the fault, with a spatially variable aseismic slip rate, reaching its peak value approximately 15-24 km east of the city of Ismetpasa. Furthermore, creepmeter measurements and InSAR time series indicate that surface aseismic slip in the region of Ismetpasa is largely episodic, alternating between quiescent periods and transient episodes of relatively rapid aseismic slip. These observations raise questions about how slip accommodates tectonic stress along the fault with significant implications in terms of hazard along the seismogenic zone.</p><p> In July 2016, we established ISMENET (Ismetpasa Continuous GNSS Network) to monitor spatial and temporal variations in the aseismic slip rate and detect slow slip events along the fault. ISMENET stations are distributed along 120 km long segment of the fault. In order to explore the shallow, fine spatio-temporal behavior of aseismic slip, 19 stations are located within 200 m to 10 km of the fault with 30 and 1 sec sampling rate. We analysed the GNSS time series to extract the signature of aseismic slip using a principal component analysis to reduce the influence of non-tectonic noise. We compared results with creep events quantified by creepmeters.</p><p>Keywords: Ismetpasa, Aseismic slip, GNSS, PCA, Time Series Analysis, NAFZ</p>


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