Imaging evolution of Cascadia slow-slip event using high-rate GPS

The slip history of short-term slow slip event (SSE) is typically inferred from daily Global Positioning System (GPS) data, which, however, cannot image the sub-daily processes, leaving the underlying mechanisms of SSEs elusive. To address the temporal resolution issue, we attempted to employ the kinematic subdaily GPS analysis, which has never been applied to SSE studies because its signal-to-noise ratio has been believed too low. By carefully post-processing sub-daily positions to remove non-tectonic position fluctuation, our 30-minute kinematic data clearly exhibits the transient motion of a few mm during one Cascadia SSE. A spatiotemporal slip image by inverting the 30-minute data exhibits a multi-stage evolution; it consists of an isotropic growth of SSE followed by an along-strike migration and termination within the rheologically controlled down-dip width. This transition at the slip growth mode is similar to the rupture growth of regular earthquakes, implying the presence of common mechanical factors behind the two distinct slip phenomena. The comparison with a slip inversion of the daily GPS demonstrates the current performance and limitation of the subdaily data in the SSE detection and imaging.Better understanding of the non-tectonic noise in the kinematic GPS analysis will further improve the temporal resolution of SSE.

Identification of Paleoearthquakes and Coseismic Slips on a Normal Fault Using High-Precision Quantitative Morphology: Application to the Jiaocheng Fault in the Shanxi Rift, China

The quantitative morphology of bedrock fault surfaces combined with aerial surveys and field identification is a useful approach to identify paleoearthquakes, obtain coseismic slips, and evaluate the seismogenic capacity of active faults in bedrock areas where traditional trenching methods are not applicable. Here, we report a case study of the Jiaocheng Fault (JCF) in the Shanxi Rift, China. Although several studies have been conducted on the JCF, its coseismic slip history and seismogenic capacity are still unclear. To address these problems, we investigated two bedrock fault surfaces, Sixicun (SXC) and Shanglanzhen (SLZ), on the JCF’s northern segment using quantitative morphological analysis together with aerial and field surveys. Quantitative fractal analysis based on the isotropic empirical variogram and moving window shows that both bedrock fault surfaces have the characteristics of vertical segmentation, which is likely due to periodic earthquakes, the coseismic slip of which can be determined by the height of the segments. Three seismic events at SXC, with a coseismic vertical slip of 1.74, 1.65, and 1.99 m, and three seismic events at SLZ, with a coseismic vertical slip of 1.32, 2.35, and 1.88 m, are identified. Compared with the previous studies, these three seismic events may occur in the Holocene, but it requires absolute dating ages to support, which is also the focus of our future work. Considering the seismologic capability (M>7.5) and the relationship between the recurrence interval of ~2.6 kyr and elapsed time of more than 3 kyr, the seismic hazard of the northern and middle segments of the JCF requires immediate attention.

Complex Holocene Fault Ruptures on the Warm Springs Valley Fault in the Northern Walker Lane, Nevada–Northern California

ABSTRACT The Warm Spring Valley fault is a right-lateral strike-slip fault situated in the northern Walker Lane—a region of distributed deformation that accommodates ~15% of the dextral shear between the North American and the Pacific plates. We assess the Holocene slip history through new mapping for the entire fault and a paleoseismic trenching investigation for the northern section of the fault. The fault is expressed in Holocene deposits for a minimum of 80 km and upward of 96 km, encompassing a wide deformation zone (~0.5–2 km) characterized by short discontinuous fault scarps in young alluvial deposits, stepping and anastomosing fault strands, pop-up features, linear drainages, and sag ponds. Trenching on the northern section of the fault reveals evidence for at least two and possibly three surface-rupturing events since 15.8 ± 1.3 ka, matching the timing of the Seehoo highstand of Lake Lahontan. Earthquakes are broadly constrained between 16.4 and 9.2 ka, a possible event between 9.0 and 6.4 ka, and an event between 3.5 and 0.1 ka, determined based on stratigraphic relationships and radiocarbon and optically stimulated luminescence geochronology. The ages of all three earthquakes provide a recurrence interval of ~5.5 ± 1.6 ka for the fault. The earthquake timing overlaps with trenching results from the southern section of the fault, suggesting that full-length fault ruptures generating Mw 7.3–7.4 earthquakes are possible. Post-Lake Lahontan sand dunes are faulted in the Honey Lake basin along with pluvial lake deposits next to Honey Lake, providing supportive evidence for one or multiple Holocene earthquakes. Faults range in orientation from 270° to 360° and match the orientations of shears in clay model experiments suggesting that fault ruptures on the Warm Springs Valley fault are complex, similar to complex historical earthquakes, and consistent with youthful fault development in the northern Walker Lane.

Identifying elusive piercing points along the North American transform margin using mixture modeling of detrital zircon data from sedimentary units and their crystalline sources

The San Gabriel and Canton faults represent early stages in the development of the San Andreas fault system. However, questions of timing of initiation and magnitude of slip on these structures remain unresolved, with published estimates ranging from 42–75 km and likely starting in the Miocene. This uncertainty in slip history reflects an absence of appropriate piercing points. We attempt to better constrain the slip history on these faults by quantifying the changing proportions of source terranes contributing sediment to the Ventura Basin, California, through the Cenozoic, including refining data for a key piercing point. Ventura Basin sediments show an increase in detrital zircon U-Pb dates and mineral abundances associated with crystalline sources in the northern San Gabriel Mountains through time, which we interpret to record the northwest translation of the basin. by dextral strike-slip faulting. In particular, an Oligocene unit mapped as part of the extra-regional Sespe Formation instead has greater affinity to the Vasquez Formation. Specifically, the presence of a unimodal population of approximately 1180 Ma zircon, high (57%) plagioclase content, and proximal alluvial fan facies indicate that the basin was adjacent to the San Gabriel anorthosite during deposition of the Vasquez Formation, requiring 35 to 60 km of slip on the San Gabriel-Canton fault system. Mixture modeling of detrital zircon data supported by automated mineralogy highlights the importance of this piercing point along the San Gabriel-Canton fault system and suggests that fault slip began during the late Oligocene to early Miocene, which is earlier than published models. These two lines of evidence disagree with recent models that estimate greater than 60 km of offset, requiring a reappraisal of the slip history of an early strand of the San Andreas transform zone.

Probabilistic Assessment of Slip Rates and Their Variability Over Time of Offshore Buried Thrusts: A Case Study in the Northern Adriatic Sea

When sedimentation rates overtake tectonic rates, the detection of ongoing tectonic deformation signatures becomes particularly challenging. The Northern Apennines orogen is one such case where a thick Plio-Pleistocene foredeep sedimentary cover blankets the fold-and-thrust belt, straddling from onshore (Po Plain) to offshore (Adriatic Sea), leading to subtle or null topo-bathymetric expression of the buried structures. The seismic activity historically recorded in the region is moderate; nonetheless, seismic sequences nearing magnitude 6 punctuated the last century, and even some small tsunamis were reported in the coastal locations following the occurrence of offshore earthquakes. In this work, we tackled the problem of assessing the potential activity of buried thrusts by analyzing a rich dataset of 2D seismic reflection profiles and wells in a sector of the Northern Apennines chain located in the near-offshore of the Adriatic Sea. This analysis enabled us to reconstruct the 3D geometry of eleven buried thrusts. We then documented the last 4 Myr slip history of four of such thrusts intersected by two high-quality regional cross-sections that were depth converted and restored. Based on eight stratigraphic horizons with well-constrained age determinations (Zanclean to Middle Pleistocene), we determined the slip and slip rates necessary to recover the observed horizon deformation. The slip rates are presented through probability density functions that consider the uncertainties derived from the horizon ages and the restoration process. Our results show that the thrust activation proceeds from the inner to the outer position in the chain. The slip history reveals an exponential reduction over time, implying decelerating slip-rates spanning three orders of magnitudes (from a few millimeters to a few hundredths of millimeters per year) with a major slip-rate change around 1.5 Ma. In agreement with previous works, these findings confirm the slip rate deceleration as a widespread behavior of the Northern Apennines thrust faults.

Evaluating variability in coseismic slips of paleoearthquakes from an incomplete slip history: an example from displaced terrace flights across the Kamishiro fault, central Japan

Examining the regularity in slip over seismic cycles leads to an understanding of earthquake recurrence and provides the basis for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment. Systematic analysis of three-dimensional paleoseismic trenches and analysis of offset markers along faults reveal slip history. Flights of displaced terraces have also been used to study slips of paleoearthquakes when the number of earthquakes contributing to the observed displacement of a terrace is known. This study presents a Monte Carlo-based approach to estimating slip variability using displaced terraces when a detailed paleoseismic record is not available. First, we mapped fluvial terraces across the Kamishiro fault, which is an intra-plate reverse fault in central Japan, and systematically measured the cumulative dip slip of the mapped terraces. By combining these measurements with the age of the paleoearthquakes, we estimated the amount of dip slip for the penultimate event (PE) and antepenultimate event (APE) to be 1.6 and 3.4 m, respectively. The APE slip was nearly three times larger than the most recent event of 2014 (Mw 6.2): 1.2 m. This suggests that the rupture length of the APE was much longer than that of the 2014 event and the entire Kamishiro fault ruptured with adjacent faults during the APE. Thereafter, we performed the Monte Carlo simulations to explore the possible range of the coefficient of variation for slip per event (COVs). The simulation considered all the possible rupture histories in terms of the number of events and their slip amounts. The resulting COVs typically ranged between 0.3 and 0.54, indicating a large variation in the slip per event of the Kamishiro fault during the last few thousand years. To test the accuracy of our approach, we performed the same simulation to a fault whose slip per event was well constrained. The result showed that the error in the COVs estimate was less than 0.15 in 86% of realizations, which was comparable to the uncertainty in COVs derived from a paleoseismic trenching. Based on the accuracy test, we conclude that the Monte Carlo-based approach should help assess the regularity of earthquakes using an incomplete paleoseismic record.

Evaluating variability in coseismic slips of paleo-earthquakes from an incomplete slip history: an example from displaced terrace flights across the Kamishiro fault, central Japan

Examining the regularity in slip over seismic cycles leads to an understanding of earthquake recurrence and provides the basis for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment. Systematic analysis of three-dimensional paleoseismic trenches and analysis of offset markers along faults reveal slip history. Flights of displaced terraces have also been used to study slips of paleoearthquakes when the number of earthquakes contributing to the observed displacement of a terrace is known. This study presents a Monte Carlo-based approach to estimating slip variability using displaced terraces when a detailed paleoseismic record is not available. First, we mapped fluvial terraces across the Kamishiro fault, which is an intra-plate reverse fault in central Japan, and systematically measured the cumulative dip slip of the mapped terraces. By combining these measurements with the age of the paleoearthquakes, we estimated the amount of dip slip for the penultimate event (PE) and antepenultimate event (APE) to be 1.6 and 3.4 m, respectively. The APE slip was nearly three times larger than the most recent event of 2014 (Mw 6.2): 1.2 m. This suggests that the rupture length of the APE was much longer than that of the 2014 event and the entire Kamishiro fault ruptured with adjacent faults during the APE. Thereafter, we performed the Monte Carlo simulations to explore the possible range of the coefficient of variation for slip per event (COVs). The simulation considered all the possible rupture histories in terms of the number of events and their slip amounts. The resulting COVs typically ranged between 0.3 and 0.54, indicating a large variation in the slip per event of the Kamishiro fault during the last few thousand years. To test the accuracy of our approach, we performed the same simulation to a fault whose slip per event was well constrained. The result showed that the error in the COVs estimate was less than 0.15 in 86 % of realizations, which was comparable to the uncertainty in COVs derived from a paleoseismic trenching. Based on the accuracy test, we conclude that the Monte Carlo-based approach should help assess the regularity of earthquakes using an incomplete paleoseismic record.

Magnitude, timing, and rate of slip along the Atacama fault system, northern Chile: Implications for Early Cretaceous slip partitioning and plate convergence

Displacement estimates along the Atacama fault system (AFS), a crustal-scale sinistral structure that accommodated oblique convergence in the Mesozoic Coastal Cordillera arc, vary widely due to a lack of piercing points. We mapped the distribution of plutons and mylonitic deformation along the northern ∼70 km of the El Salado segment and use U-Pb geochronology to establish the slip history of the AFS. Along the eastern branch, mylonitic fabrics associated with the synkinematic ∼134–132 Ma Cerro del Pingo Complex are separated by 34–38 km, and mylonites associated with a synkinematic ∼120–119 Ma tonalite are separated by 20.5–25 km. We interpret leucocratic intrusions to be separated across the western branch by ∼16–20 km, giving a total slip magnitude of ∼54 ± 6 km across the El Salado segment. Kinematic indicators consistently record sinistral shear and zircon (U-Th)/He data suggest dip-slip motion was insignificant. Displacement occurred between ∼133–110 Ma at a slip rate of ∼2.1–2.6 km/Myr. This slip rate is low compared to modern intra-arc strike-slip faults, suggesting (1) the majority of lateral slip was accommodated along the slab interface or distributed through the forearc or (2) plate convergence rates/obliquity were significantly lower than previously modeled.Supplementary material including full U-Pb, (U-Th)/He, petrographic, and structural data with locations is available at https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.c.5262177.

Postglacial Mw 7.0–7.5 Earthquakes on the North Olympic Fault Zone, Washington

ABSTRACT Holocene crustal faulting in the northern Olympic Peninsula of Washington State manifests in a zone of west-northwest-striking crustal faults herein named the North Olympic fault zone, which extends for ∼80 km along strike and includes the Lake Creek–Boundary Creek fault to the east and the Sadie Creek fault and newly discovered scarps to the west. This study focuses on the Sadie Creek fault, which extends for >14 km west-northwest from Lake Crescent. Airborne light detection and ranging (lidar) imagery reveals the trace of the Sadie Creek fault and offset postglacial landforms showing a history of Holocene surface-rupturing earthquakes dominated by dextral displacement along a steeply dipping fault zone. Paleoseismic trenches at two sites on the Sadie Creek fault reveal till and outwash overlain by progressively buried forest and wetland soils developed on scarp-derived colluvial wedges. Trench exposures of complex faulting with subhorizontal slickenlines indicate dextral displacement with lesser dip slip. Correlation of broadly constrained time intervals for earthquakes at the Sadie Creek sites and those to the east along the Lake Creek–Boundary Creek fault is consistent with rupture of much of the length of the North Olympic fault zone three to four times: at about 11, 7, 3, and 1 ka, with a shorter rupture at about 8.5 ka. Dated ruptures from trenches only partially coincide with coseismic landslides and megaturbidites in Lake Crescent, indicating that some earthquakes did not trigger megaturbidites, and some turbidites were unrelated to local fault rupture. Landform mapping suggests single-event dextral displacement of 4±1 m on the Sadie Creek fault. Inferred maximum rupture length and single-event slip imply earthquake magnitudes Mw 7.0–7.5. Dextral slip rates of 1.3–2.3 mm/yr and the ∼11,000 yr slip history suggest that the North Olympic fault zone is a prominent contributor to permanent strain in the northern Cascadia fore-arc.