Improved Scaling Relationships for Seismic Moment and Average Slip of Strike-Slip Earthquakes Incorporating Fault-Slip Rate, Fault Width, and Stress Drop

ABSTRACT We develop a self-consistent scaling model relating magnitude Mw to surface rupture length (LE), surface displacement DE, and rupture width WE, for strike-slip faults. Knowledge of the long-term fault-slip rate SF improves magnitude estimates. Data are collected for 55 ground-rupturing strike-slip earthquakes that have geological estimates of LE, DE, and SF, and geophysical estimates of WE. We begin with the model of Anderson et al. (2017), which uses a closed form equation for the seismic moment of a surface-rupturing strike-slip fault of arbitrary aspect ratio and given stress drop, ΔτC. Using WE estimates does not improve Mw estimates. However, measurements of DE plus the relationship between ΔτC and surface slip provide an alternate approach to study WE. A grid of plausible stress drop and width pairs were used to predict displacement and earthquake magnitude. A likelihood function was computed from within the uncertainty ranges of the corresponding observed Mw and DE values. After maximizing likelihoods over earthquakes in length bins, we found the most likely values of WE for constant stress drop; these depend on the rupture length. The best-fitting model has the surprising form WE∝logLE—a gentle increase in width with rupture length. Residuals from this model are convincingly correlated to the fault-slip rate and also show a weak correlation with the crustal thickness. The resulting model thus supports a constant stress drop for ruptures of all lengths, consistent with teleseismic observation. The approach can be extended to test other observable factors that might improve the predictability of magnitude from a mapped fault for seismic hazard analyses.

36Cl exposure dating of post-glacial features along the Mt Vettore Fault (Central Apennines, Italy) constraining fault slip rate and last glacial advance.

<p>In the Central Apennines (Italy), up to now, no absolute dating directly based on the moraines has been carried out to constrain glacial oscillation. However, climatic constrains are often used in the Central Apennine to estimate long term (> 10 ka) fault slip rate. In addition slip rate assessments based on offset morphotectonic markers on the main branches of fault systems and encompassing several seismic cycles (> 10 ka) are sparse. This is particularly true for the Monte Vettore-Monte Bove fault system which triggered the 2016-2017 seismic sequence. We thus provide new assessment for the vertical slip rates along the Mt Vettore-Mt Bove fault system.  Offset measurements were made using a 5-cm resolution DEM obtained through a drone survey and constrain a fault scarp height of 15.5 ± 1.4 m and a cumulative offset of 32-40.5 m. Samples were collected from the Valle Lunga terminal moraine at 1710 m asl and yield <sup>36</sup>Cl exposure ages of 12.7 + 2.2/-1.9 ka while the flat, abraded surface located on top of the tectonic scarp yield <sup>36</sup>Cl exposure ages of 23.4 + 5.3/-4.3 ka. Assuming the offset started to accumulate when climate conditions allow its preservation, thus once the surface was abandoned, we constrain a vertical slip rate of 1.2 ± 0.2 mm/yr along the master branch of the Mt Vettore normal fault.  This rate is higher than the ones previously obtained from trenches along secondary splays of the Mt Vettore-Mt Bove and on the Norcia fault systems. Besides, the yielded chronology for the last glacial maximum in that area at ~23 ka is in good agreement with the timing previously proposed for the LGM in the Apennines.</p>

Holocene to latest Pleistocene incremental slip rates from the east-central Hope fault (Conway segment) at Hossack Station, Marlborough fault system, South Island, New Zealand: Towards a dated path of earthquake slip along a plate boundary fault

Geomorphic field and aerial lidar mapping, coupled with fault-parallel trenching, reveals four progressive offsets of a stream channel and an older offset of the channel headwaters and associated fill terrace–bedrock contact at Hossack Station along the Conway segment of the Hope fault, the fastest-slipping fault within the Marlborough fault system in northern South Island, New Zealand. Radiocarbon and luminescence dating of aggradational surface deposition and channel initiation and abandonment event horizons yields not only an average dextral rate of ∼15 mm/yr since ca. 14 ka, but also incremental slip rates for five different time periods (spanning hundreds to thousands of years) during Holocene to latest Pleistocene time. These incremental rates vary through time and are, from youngest to oldest: 8.2 +2.7/−1.5 mm/yr averaged since 1.1 ka; 32.7 +∼124.9/−10.1 mm/yr averaged over 1.61–1.0 ka; 19.1 ± 0.8 mm/yr between 5.4 and 1.6 ka; 12.0 ± 0.9 mm/yr between 9.4 and 5.4 ka, and 13.7 +4.0/−3.4 mm/yr from 13.8 to 9.4 ka, with generally faster rates in the mid- to late Holocene relative to slower rates prior to ca. 5.4 ka. The most pronounced variation in rates occurs between the two youngest intervals, which are averaged over shorter time spans (≤1700 yr) than the three older incremental rates (3700–4500 yr). This suggests that the factor of ∼1.5× variations in Hope fault slip rate observed in the three older, longer-duration incremental rates may mask even greater temporal variations in rate over shorter time scales.

Late Quaternary slip rate of the Aksay segment and its rapidly decreasing gradient along the Altyn Tagh fault

Constraining the fault slip rate on a fault can reveal the strain accumulation and partitioning pattern. The Aksay segment, the eastern segment of the Altyn Tagh fault, as the starting area where the slip rate of the Altyn Tagh fault decreases, is a strain partitioning zone. The spatial and temporal distribution of its fault slip rate is of great significance to clarify the strain-partitioning pattern of the eastern Altyn Tagh fault. In this study, we determined the slip rates at four sites along the Aksay segment. The results demonstrated that the slip rate decreases dramatically, with an overwhelmingly high slip gradient of ∼9.8 mm/yr/100 km (a 9.8 mm/yr reduction of slip rate occurs over a distance of 100 km) within a distance of ∼50 km. The slip rate gradient along strike at the Aksay segment is four times that of the Subei segment to the eastward termination of the Altyn Tagh fault. Our results indicate that the slip rate gradient along the Altyn Tagh fault is not uniform and decreases eastward with variable slip rate gradients on different segments, resulting in the uplift of the mountains oblique to the Altyn Tagh fault.

A systems-based approach to parameterise seismic hazard in regions with little historical or instrumental seismicity: The South Malawi Active Fault Database

Seismic hazard is frequently characterised using instrumental seismic records. However, in regions where the instrumental record is short relative to earthquake repeat times, extrapolating it to estimate seismic hazard can misrepresent the probable location, magnitude, and frequency of future large earthquakes. Although paleoseismology can address this challenge, this approach requires certain geomorphic settings and carries large inherent uncertainties. Here, we outline how fault slip rates and recurrence intervals can be estimated through an approach that combines fault geometry, earthquake-scaling relationships, geodetically derived regional strain rates, and geological constraints of regional strain distribution. We then apply this approach to the southern Malawi Rift where, although no on-fault slip rate measurements exist, there are theoretical and observational constraints on how strain is distributed between border and intrabasinal faults. This has led to the development of the South Malawi Active Fault Database (SMAFD), the first database of its kind in the East African Rift System (EARS) and designed so that the outputs can be easily incorporated into Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis. We estimate earthquake magnitudes of MW 5.4–7.2 for individual fault sections in the SMAFD, and MW 6.0–7.8 for whole fault ruptures. These potentially high magnitudes for continental normal faults reflect southern Malawi's 11–140 km long faults and thick (30–35 km) seismogenic crust. However, low slip rates (intermediate estimates 0.05–0.8 mm/yr) imply long recurrence intervals between events: 102–105 years for border faults and 103–106 years for intrabasinal faults. Sensitivity analysis indicates that the large range of these estimates can be reduced most significantly from an improved understanding of the rate and partitioning of rift-extension in southern Malawi, earthquake scaling relationships, and earthquake rupture scenarios. Hence these are critical areas for future research. The SMAFD provides a framework for using geological and geodetic information to characterize seismic hazard in low strain rate settings with few on-fault slip rate measurements, and could be adapted for use elsewhere in the EARS or globally.

Seismogenic potential of the High Durance Fault constrained by 20 yr of GNSS measurements in the Western European Alps

SUMMARY Due to the steady moderate seismicity observed along the Briançon seismic arc, in the south-western French Alps, three temporary GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System) surveys took place in 1996, 2006 and 2011, across a ∼50 × 60 km² wide area, to investigate the surface deformation field. The horizontal velocity field computed from these three surveys showed an east–west extension in the network. A fourth campaign was led in 2016, creating a 20 yr observation span, resulting in measurements which reach a sufficient accuracy to assess whether extension found within the Briançon network is localized onto any particular tectonic feature. Several faults in this area are known to be active normal faults. Assessing the localization of the deformation may lead to a better understanding of the active tectonics of the Alpine belt. To address this issue, a robust velocity field was computed from the combination of the different campaign and permanent GNSS data. Strain rate tensors were derived for the first time in this area on a 0.1 × 0.1 deg grid to assess the distribution of the deformation. The regional deformation appears localized in the Briançon area and reaches up to 20 ± 5 nanostrain yr−1 in the centre of the network. The observed velocities were projected on a profile across the network and compared with modelled interseismic deformation to characterize the behaviour of the major active faults known in the study zone. While a two-fault model provides the best fit to the data, a single fault model has only marginally higher residuals, with parameters which are more consistent with the seismotectonics of the region. The localization of the single modelled fault is consistent with the location of the High Durance Fault (HDF). Therefore, we used the known geological location of this structure as a priori information in a block model to compute a fault slip rate at the interface between the two blocks. The velocities on the interface indicate 0.4–0.5 mm yr−1 of extension, and therefore strain accumulates along the HDF throughout the seismic cycle. The geodetically derived fault slip rate is converted into an equivalent seismic moment release rate, which is consistent within its uncertainty bounds with the known historical and instrumental seismicity of the Briançon area.

Locking Behavior of Main Marmara Fault in Western Turkey During Interseismic Period

<p>The North Anatolian Fault (NAF) produced multiple earthquakes of M>7 throughout the 20th century, while the part of NAF beneath Sea of Marmara did not rupture during this period. Analysis of the Main Marmara Fault's interseismic behavior, the most active branch of the North Anatolian Fault in this region, in terms of locking depth and fault slip rate is critical for evaluating the region's seismic risk with a population of more than 20 million, as it provides information about the seismic moment deficit that may release in a potential future earthquake.</p><p>In this study, we modeled the Main Marmara Fault's interseismic locking with realistic geometry and 3D structure including sedimentary basins, by implementing a 3D finite element approach and using interseismic GPS velocities. We have optimized the fits with GPS data by evaluating cases where each fault segment is constrained by a fault slip rate below a predefined locking depth ranging from 0 to 20 km. Preliminary models reveal that a difference in locking depth is required between the Western Marmara and the eastern end of the Ganos Segment entering the Sea of Marmara. This result, which is consistent with seismicity studies and other previous studies using 1D profiles shows that the strain accumulation under Western Marmara is less and that the locking depths or couplings are not similar in these two segments. For the Princes' Islands Segment, further analysis is required due to complexity in the GPS data. Recent earthquakes along Silivri also indicate that the strain accumulation is complex with most mechanisms showing significant thrust component. We have also calculated various possible strain accumulation patterns and compared the strain rate field around the Main Marmara Fault. Our results show that in most cases the change in the seismicity of each segment is consistent with the interseismic behavior associated with its fault locking.</p><p>(This research has been supported by Boğaziçi University Scientific Research Projects Coordination Unit. Project Number: 15022, 2019)</p>