The Necessity and Difficulty of Navigating Uncertainty to Develop an Individual-Level Computational Model

Author(s):  
Alexander J. Freund ◽  
Philippe J. Giabbanelli
2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yi Yang ◽  
Na Ta ◽  
Kaiyu Li ◽  
Fang Jiao

BACKGROUND The emergence of social media highlights the decentralized nature of information, which means people can be prone to uncertainty and be affectively polarized. A wealth of research around online affective polarization has focused on quantifying anxiety at an individual level, while neglecting that on a collective basis. To address this gap, the manner in which the anxiety of topic-based communities on social media polarizes warrants further examination. OBJECTIVE This study aims to gauge the origin and fluctuation in the collective anxiety of topic-based communities on Weibo, and also investigates its correlations with topic characteristics and users’ personal influence. METHODS In this paper, researchers proposed a computational model based on neural networks to assess the collective anxiety score of Weibo topic-based communities. The empirical study was based on 200 communities with 403,380 personal accounts and 358,260 messages. RESULTS With demonstrated effectiveness of our computational model (85.00% precision and 87.00% recall), we found correlations between the collective anxiety level and the extent to which a certain topic involves public interest, as well as how community members interpret and elaborate the topics on social network platforms. Furthermore, the ratio of influencers might impact anxiety polarization of topic-based communities by setting tones and leading the trends within their groups. More specifically, how close a certain topic is to public interest and people’s conflicting perceptions are responsible for increases of this collective anxiety, while the number of influencers engaged accounts for the decline of its increment. CONCLUSIONS This paper examines the manner in which the anxiety of topic-based communities on Weibo platform polarizes. We found the collective anxiety to augment due to topic proximities to public interest and members’ lack of declarative knowledge on topics, while to decline with an increasing portion of online influencers. These findings indicate that anxiety is induced due to a lack of credibility. Also, the amount of conflicting information shared by different people places them in a state of flux. Therefore, a community with more influencers may be more likely to experience anxiety polarization, bringing forth the issue of layered information and inequality.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Remco Benthem de Grave ◽  
Fred Hasselman ◽  
Erik Bijleveld

AbstractIn modern society, work stress is highly prevalent. Problematically, work stress can cause disease. To help understand the causal relationship between work stress and disease, we present a computational model of this relationship. That is, drawing from allostatic load theory, we captured the link between work stress and disease in a set of mathematical formulas. With simulation studies, we then examined our model’s ability to reproduce key findings from previous empirical research. Specifically, results from Study 1 suggested that our model could accurately reproduce established findings on daily fluctuations in cortisol levels (both on the group level and the individual level). Results from Study 2 suggested that our model could accurately reproduce established findings on the relationship between work stress and cardiovascular disease. Finally, results from Study 3 yielded new predictions about the relationship between workweek configurations (i.e., how working hours are distributed over days) and the subsequent development of disease. Together, our studies suggest a new, computational approach to studying the causal link between work stress and disease. We suggest that this approach is fruitful, as it aids the development of falsifiable theory, and as it opens up new ways of generating predictions about why and when work stress is (un)healthy.


Crisis ◽  
2020 ◽  
pp. 1-5
Author(s):  
Shannon Lange ◽  
Courtney Bagge ◽  
Charlotte Probst ◽  
Jürgen Rehm

Abstract. Background: In recent years, the rate of death by suicide has been increasing disproportionately among females and young adults in the United States. Presumably this trend has been mirrored by the proportion of individuals with suicidal ideation who attempted suicide. Aim: We aimed to investigate whether the proportion of individuals in the United States with suicidal ideation who attempted suicide differed by age and/or sex, and whether this proportion has increased over time. Method: Individual-level data from the National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH), 2008–2017, were used to estimate the year-, age category-, and sex-specific proportion of individuals with past-year suicidal ideation who attempted suicide. We then determined whether this proportion differed by age category, sex, and across years using random-effects meta-regression. Overall, age category- and sex-specific proportions across survey years were estimated using random-effects meta-analyses. Results: Although the proportion was found to be significantly higher among females and those aged 18–25 years, it had not significantly increased over the past 10 years. Limitations: Data were self-reported and restricted to past-year suicidal ideation and suicide attempts. Conclusion: The increase in the death by suicide rate in the United States over the past 10 years was not mirrored by the proportion of individuals with past-year suicidal ideation who attempted suicide during this period.


2020 ◽  
Vol 36 (5) ◽  
pp. 852-863 ◽  
Author(s):  
George Gunnesch-Luca ◽  
Klaus Moser

Abstract. The current paper presents the development and validation of a unit-level Organizational Citizenship Behavior (OCB) scale based on the Referent-Shift Consensus Model (RSCM). In Study 1, with 124 individuals measured twice, both an Exploratory Factor Analysis (EFA) and a Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA) established and confirmed a five-factor solution (helping behavior, sportsmanship, loyalty, civic virtue, and conscientiousness). Test–retest reliabilities at a 2-month interval were high (between .59 and .79 for the subscales, .83 for the total scale). In Study 2, unit-level OCB was analyzed in a sample of 129 work teams. Both Interrater Reliability (IRR) measures and Interrater Agreement (IRA) values provided support for RSCM requirements. Finally, unit-level OCB was associated with group task interdependence and was more predictable (by job satisfaction and integrity of the supervisor) than individual-level OCB in previous research.


2020 ◽  
Vol 51 (3) ◽  
pp. 183-198
Author(s):  
Wiktor Soral ◽  
Mirosław Kofta

Abstract. The importance of various trait dimensions explaining positive global self-esteem has been the subject of numerous studies. While some have provided support for the importance of agency, others have highlighted the importance of communion. This discrepancy can be explained, if one takes into account that people define and value their self both in individual and in collective terms. Two studies ( N = 367 and N = 263) examined the extent to which competence (an aspect of agency), morality, and sociability (the aspects of communion) promote high self-esteem at the individual and the collective level. In both studies, competence was the strongest predictor of self-esteem at the individual level, whereas morality was the strongest predictor of self-esteem at the collective level.


2013 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tao Gao ◽  
Chris L. Baker ◽  
Joshua B. Tenenbaum
Keyword(s):  

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brian Taehyuk Keum ◽  
Clara E. Hill ◽  
Dennis M. Kivlighan ◽  
Yun Lu

2007 ◽  
Author(s):  
Meredith L. Cracraft ◽  
Gonzalo Ferro ◽  
David W. Dorsey ◽  
Johnathan Nelson

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