Forecasting the Possible Accident Scenario on the Example of Self-framing Metal Buildings

2021 ◽  
pp. 331-342
Author(s):  
Sergii Pichugin ◽  
Lina Klochko
1985 ◽  
Vol 111 (4) ◽  
pp. 826-839 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brian A. Lynn ◽  
Theodore Stathopoulos
Keyword(s):  

Polar Record ◽  
1956 ◽  
Vol 8 (54) ◽  
pp. 246-252 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bertrand Imbert

In 1955 a new station was opened at Ile des Pétrels, off the coast of Terre Adélie, as part of the French contribution to the International Geophysical Year. The author and M. Vallette, who had planned the station at Port-Martin, investigated the properties of a number of prefabricated buildings in order to choose the most suitable type for the new station. The record of fires in polar buildings made it obvious that the materials used should, if possible, be non-inflammable in addition to being light, compact and easy to handle. Finally a metal type was selected, made by the firm of Fillod, Florange, Moselle. These buildings have many advantages. They are non-inflammable, and therefore fire breaking out inside them would be comparatively easy to control; in the fire at Port-Martin (in 1952) a hole had been burnt through the wooden roof of the hut and the forced draught so created, with the aid of a strong wind, made control of the fire impossible. These metal buildings are 30 per cent lighter, and far less cumbersome, than wooden prefabricated buildings of the same size. Fillod buildings had been in use on Ile Amsterdam since 1950 and Iles de Kerguelen since 1951 where they had successfully stood up to winds of 200 km./hour. The U.S. Navy had tested these buildings and proved that they could withstand weights of snow equivalent to 140 kg./sq.m. and a wind force of 160 km./hour. The average wind force at Ile des Pétrels was 34·2 km./hour.


2011 ◽  
Vol 52 (2) ◽  
pp. 12-16
Author(s):  
Jutta Geldermann ◽  
Valentin Bertsch ◽  
Florian Gering

Komplexe Entscheidungssituationen, wie sie beispielsweise im Notfall- und Sanierungsmanagement nach einem kerntechnischen Störfall auftreten, erfordern eine Berücksichtigung technischer, ökonomischer, ökologischer, sozio-psychologischer und politischer Aspekte. Ansätze der Mehrzielentscheidungsunterstützung ermöglichen eine aggregierte Betrachtung verschiedener Aspekte, das Miteinbeziehen der subjektiven Präferenzen der Entscheidungsträger und tragen zu mehr Transparenz und Nachvollziehbarkeit von Entscheidungsprozessen bei. Dieser Beitrag befasst sich schwerpunktmäßig mit der Betrachtung von Unsicherheiten in solchen Entscheidungsprozessen. Zur Modellierung, Fortpflanzung und Visualisierung von Unsicherheiten wird ein Monte-Carlo-Ansatz vorgestellt und beispielhaft auf Daten eines fiktiven nuklearen Unfallszenarios angewendet. Generell ist der Ansatz jedoch auf allgemeine komplexe Entscheidungssituationen erweiterbar, insbesondere auf den Bereich sonstiger industrieller Notfälle. Eine interessante Fragestellung besteht weiterhin in der Untersuchung der Auswirkungen industrieller Notfälle auf die gesamte Wertschöpfungskette. Der erste Teil des Aufsatzes wurde bereits in Der Betriebswirt 1/2011 veröffentlicht, der letzte Teil folgt in Ausgabe 3/2011. Complex decision situations, such as in nuclear emergency and remediation management, require the consideration of technical, economic, ecological, socio-psychological and political aspects. Approaches for Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) help to take into account various incommensurable aspects and subjective preferences of the decision makers and thus contribute to transparency and traceability of decision processes. This paper focuses on the handling of uncertainties in such decision processes. Monte Carlo approaches can be used to model, propagate and finally visualise the uncertainties, as a case study on a hypothetical radiological accident scenario illustrates. In general, the presented approach can be adopted for any complex decision situation, especially for industrial emergencies. Further research would be necessary for the analysis of their consequences for entire supply chains. Keywords: risiko und notfallmanagement unter unsicherheit


1995 ◽  
Vol 154 (2) ◽  
pp. 119-132 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. di Marzo ◽  
K. Almenas ◽  
S. Gopalnarayanan

2019 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 40-54
Author(s):  
Mohamed Seddik Hellas ◽  
Rachid Chaib ◽  
Ion Verzea

Purpose Nowadays, artificial intelligence computational methods, such as knowledge-based systems, neural networks, genetic algorithms and fuzzy logic, have been increasingly applied to several industrial research studies, the purpose of this paper is to study the contribution of fuzzy and possibilistic techniques to quantitative risk analysis (QRA) in the presence of imperfect knowledge about the occurrence and consequences of accidental phenomena. Design/methodology/approach To solve the problem of uncertainties related to the elements of the accident scenario such as the frequency and severity of the consequences, the authors used fuzzy logic. Using this type of analysis, it is possible to visualize the contours of the dead or fuzzy injury by fireball thermal effect (first- and second-degree burn, death) and lesions caused by vapor cloud explosion overpressure (lung damage, eardrum rupture, head impact, whole-body displacement). The frequency and severity of fuzzy results are calculated by extended multiplication using the alpha-cuts method. Findings This research project aims to reflect the real situation in the in Amenas industrial area (SONATRACH company), specifically the liquefied petroleum gas storage tank On-Spec 05-V-411A, to deal with this type of risk. Using this analysis allows us to estimate the fuzzy individual risk using the approach of fuzzy logic to treating this uncertainty in the parameter information of accident scenarios. This index individuel risk (IR) was evaluated against the criterion of acceptability and then used for decision-making in the field of industrial risk analysis and evaluation. Originality/value The originality of the work is to identify the weak points of the classical QRA to solve the problem of the uncertainties related to the elements of the accident scenario such as the frequency and severity of the consequences to visualize the fuzzy risk contours. On the one hand and the development of software to calculate the probability of death by the overpressure effect and classify the most sensitive organs on the other hand. Given the importance of this study, it can be generalized for similar sites in the region.


2016 ◽  
Vol 86 ◽  
pp. 87-96 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shasha Yin ◽  
Yapei Zhang ◽  
Wenxi Tian ◽  
Suizheng Qiu ◽  
G.H. Su ◽  
...  

Author(s):  
Geoffrey J. Peter

The accident scenario resulting from blockages due to the retention of dust in the coolant gas or from the rupture of one or more fuel particles used in the High Temperature Gas Cooled (Pebble Bed) Nuclear Reactors considered for the next generation of Advanced High Temperature Reactors (AHTR), for nuclear power production, and for high-temperature hydrogen production using nuclear reactors to reduce the carbon footprint is examined in this paper. Blockages can cause local variations in flow and heat transfer that may lead to hot spots within the bed that could compromise reactor safety. Therefore, it is important to know the void fraction distribution and the interstitial velocity field in the packed bed. The blockage for this numerical study simulated a region with significantly lower void than that in the rest of the bed. Finite difference technique solved the simplified continuity, momentum, and energy equations. Any meaningful outcome of the solution depended largely upon the validity of the boundary conditions. Among them, the inlet and outlet velocity profiles required special attention. Thus, a close approximation to these profiles obtained from an experimental set-up established the boundary conditions. This paper presents the development of the elliptic-partial differential equation for a bed of pebbles, and the solution procedure. The paper also discusses velocity and temperature profiles obtained from both numerical and experimental setup, with and without effect of blockage. In addition, the paper compares the results obtained from the experimental set-up with numerical simulation using a commercially available code that uses finite element techniques.


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