Reconciling Event- and Agent-Based Paradigms in the Engineering of Complex Systems: The Role of Environment Abstractions

Author(s):  
Andrea Omicini ◽  
Stefano Mariani
Keyword(s):  
2015 ◽  
Vol 46 (2) ◽  
pp. 245-263 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xavier Rubio-Campillo ◽  
Pau Valdés Matías ◽  
Eduard Ble

The role of centurions in Roman warfare has never been decisively established. Historical sources suggest that centurions exerted an influence on the performance of the Roman battle line that was highly disproportionate to their numbers, as well as to their particular actions. However, the lack of a formal framework of Roman tactics does not allow this proposition to be tested. The results obtained from an agent-based model (abm) of Roman warfare, a computer-simulation technique, however, suggest that battle formations benefited greatly from the presence of even a small percentage of psychologically resilient soldiers, especially along the first line, even if these individuals displayed no more than average levels of skill and aggression. Hence, the model’s simulated patterns of Roman warfare indicate that the multiple roles performed by the centurions as described in the sources were not distinguished so much by tactics as by experience and imperviousness to the stress of combat.


2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jonatan Almagor ◽  
Stefano Picascia

AbstractA contact-tracing strategy has been deemed necessary to contain the spread of COVID-19 following the relaxation of lockdown measures. Using an agent-based model, we explore one of the technology-based strategies proposed, a contact-tracing smartphone app. The model simulates the spread of COVID-19 in a population of agents on an urban scale. Agents are heterogeneous in their characteristics and are linked in a multi-layered network representing the social structure—including households, friendships, employment and schools. We explore the interplay of various adoption rates of the contact-tracing app, different levels of testing capacity, and behavioural factors to assess the impact on the epidemic. Results suggest that a contact tracing app can contribute substantially to reducing infection rates in the population when accompanied by a sufficient testing capacity or when the testing policy prioritises symptomatic cases. As user rate increases, prevalence of infection decreases. With that, when symptomatic cases are not prioritised for testing, a high rate of app users can generate an extensive increase in the demand for testing, which, if not met with adequate supply, may render the app counterproductive. This points to the crucial role of an efficient testing policy and the necessity to upscale testing capacity.


Science ◽  
2005 ◽  
Vol 310 (5750) ◽  
pp. 987-991 ◽  
Author(s):  
V. Grimm
Keyword(s):  

Author(s):  
Mustafa Ilhan Akbas ◽  
Chathika Gunaratne ◽  
Ozlem Ozmen Garibay ◽  
Ivan Garibay ◽  
Thomas O'Neal

Author(s):  
Marisa Faggini ◽  
Bruna Bruno ◽  
Anna Parziale

AbstractFollowing the reverse engineering (RE) approach to analyse an economic complex system is to infer how its underlying mechanism works. The main factors that condition the difficulty of RE are the number of variable components in the system and, most importantly, the interdependence of components on one another and nonlinear dynamics. All those aspects characterize the economic complex systems within which economic agents make their choices. Economic complex systems are adopted in RE science, and they could be used to understand, predict and model the dynamics of the complex systems that enable to define and to control the economic environment. With the RE approach, economic data could be used to peek into the internal workings of the economic complex system, providing information about its underling nonlinear dynamics. The idea of this paper arises from the aim to deepen the comprehension of this approach and to highlight the potential implementation of tools and methodologies based on it to treat economic complex systems. An overview of the literature about the RE is presented, by focusing on the definition and on the state of the art of the research, and then we consider two potential tools that could translate the methodological issues of RE by evidencing advantages and disadvantages for economic analysis: the recurrence analysis and the agent-based model (ABM).


2017 ◽  
Vol 55 (3) ◽  
pp. 1046-1063 ◽  
Author(s):  
Geoffrey Heal

I review the economic characteristics of the climate problem, focusing on the choice of discount rates in the presence of a stock externality, risk and uncertainty/ambiguity, and the role of integrated assessment models (IAMs) in analyzing policy choices. I suggest that IAMs can play a role in providing qualitative understanding of how complex systems behave, but are not accurate enough to provide quantitative insights. Arguments in favor of action on climate issues have to be based on aversion to risk and ambiguity and the need to avoid a small but positive risk of a disastrous outcome. ( JEL D61, H43, Q48, Q54, Q58)


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