scholarly journals Exploring the effectiveness of a COVID-19 contact tracing app using an agent-based model

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jonatan Almagor ◽  
Stefano Picascia
Keyword(s):  
High Rate ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Agent Based Model ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
The Social ◽  
Behavioural Factors ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Different Levels ◽  
User Rate

AbstractA contact-tracing strategy has been deemed necessary to contain the spread of COVID-19 following the relaxation of lockdown measures. Using an agent-based model, we explore one of the technology-based strategies proposed, a contact-tracing smartphone app. The model simulates the spread of COVID-19 in a population of agents on an urban scale. Agents are heterogeneous in their characteristics and are linked in a multi-layered network representing the social structure—including households, friendships, employment and schools. We explore the interplay of various adoption rates of the contact-tracing app, different levels of testing capacity, and behavioural factors to assess the impact on the epidemic. Results suggest that a contact tracing app can contribute substantially to reducing infection rates in the population when accompanied by a sufficient testing capacity or when the testing policy prioritises symptomatic cases. As user rate increases, prevalence of infection decreases. With that, when symptomatic cases are not prioritised for testing, a high rate of app users can generate an extensive increase in the demand for testing, which, if not met with adequate supply, may render the app counterproductive. This points to the crucial role of an efficient testing policy and the necessity to upscale testing capacity.

scholarly journals Exploring the effectiveness of a COVID-19 contact tracing app with an agent-based model

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jonatan Almagor ◽  
Stefano Picascia
Keyword(s):  
High Rate ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Agent Based Model ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
The Social ◽  
Behavioural Factors ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Different Levels ◽  
User Rate

Abstract A contact-tracing strategy has been deemed necessary to contain the spread of COVID-19 following the relaxation of lockdown measures. Using an agent-based model, we explore one of the technology-based strategies proposed, a contact-tracing smartphone app. The model simulates the spread of COVID-19 in a population of agents on an urban scale. Agents are heterogeneous in their characteristics and are linked in a multi-layered network representing the social structure - including households, friendships, employment and schools. We explore the interplay of various adoption rates of the contact-tracing app, different levels of testing capacity, and behavioural factors to assess the impact on the epidemic. Results suggest that a contact tracing app can contribute substantially to reducing infection rates in the population when accompanied by a sufficient testing capacity or when the testing policy prioritises symptomatic cases. As user rate increases, prevalence of infection decreases. With that, when symptomatic cases are not prioritised for testing, a high rate of app users can generate an extensive increase in the demand for testing, which, if not met with adequate supply, may render the app counterproductive. This points to the crucial role of an efficient testing policy and the necessity to upscale testing capacity.

scholarly journals Can the app contain the spread?An agent-based model of COVID-19 and the effectiveness of smartphone-based contact tracing

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jonatan Almagor ◽  
Stefano Picascia
Keyword(s):  
Crucial Role ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Smartphone App ◽  
Complete Suppression ◽  
Agent Based Model ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
The Social ◽  
Behavioural Factors ◽  
Different Levels

Abstract A contact-tracing strategy has been deemed necessary to contain the spread of COVID-19 following the relaxation of lockdown measures. Using an agent-based model, we explore one of the technology-based strategies proposed, a contact-tracing smartphone app. The model simulates the spread of COVID-19 in a population of agents on an urban scale. Agents are heterogeneous in their characteristics and are linked in a multi-layered network representing the social structure - including households, friendships, employment and schools.We explore the interplay of various adoption rates of the contact-tracing app, different levels of testing capacity, and behavioural factors, to assess the ability of this track-and-trace strategy to mitigate the epidemic. Results suggest that the app can contribute substantially to the reduction of infections in the population, although complete suppression of the virus is unlikely to be achieved. The model also shows that, while adopting the app is beneficial for epidemic control in most cases, a high adoption rate is likely to generate an extensive increase in the demand for testing, which, if not met with adequate supply, may render the app counterproductive. This points to the crucial role of an efficient testing policy and the necessity to upscale testing capacity.

scholarly journals Estimating the impact of interventions against COVID-19: from lockdown to vaccination

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
James Thompson ◽  
Stephen Wattam
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Clustering ◽  
Herd Immunity ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Agent Based Model ◽  
Seir Model ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Resident Population ◽  
First Case ◽  
Equivalent Equation ◽  
The Impact

AbstractCoronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is an infectious disease of humans caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Since the first case was identified in China in December 2019 the disease has spread worldwide, leading to an ongoing pandemic. In this article, we present a detailed agent-based model of COVID-19 in Luxembourg, and use it to estimate the impact, on cases and deaths, of interventions including testing, contact tracing, lockdown, curfew and vaccination.Our model is based on collation, with agents performing activities and moving between locations accordingly. The model is highly heterogeneous, featuring spatial clustering, over 2000 behavioural types and a 10 minute time resolution. The model is validated against COVID-19 clinical monitoring data collected in Luxembourg in 2020.Our model predicts far fewer cases and deaths than the equivalent equation-based SEIR model. In particular, with R0 = 2.45, the SEIR model infects 87% of the resident population while our agent-based model results, on average, in only around 23% of the resident population infected. Our simulations suggest that testing and contract tracing reduce cases substantially, but are much less effective at reducing deaths. Lockdowns appear very effective although costly, while the impact of an 11pm-6am curfew is relatively small. When vaccinating against a future outbreak, our results suggest that herd immunity can be achieved at relatively low levels, with substantial levels of protection achieved with only 30% of the population immune. When vaccinating in midst of an outbreak, the challenge is more difficult. In this context, we investigate the impact of vaccine efficacy, capacity, hesitancy and strategy.We conclude that, short of a permanent lockdown, vaccination is by far the most effective way to suppress and ultimately control the spread of COVID-19.

scholarly journals Anatomy of digital contact tracing: role of age, transmission setting, adoption and case detection

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jesús A. Moreno López ◽  
Beatriz Arregui-Garcĺa ◽  
Piotr Bentkowski ◽  
Livio Bioglio ◽  
Francesco Pinotti ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Age Groups ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Case Detection ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Population Immunity ◽  
Contact Survey ◽  
Low Coverage ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Epidemiological Information

The efficacy of digital contact tracing against COVID-19 epidemic is debated: smartphone penetration is limited in many countries, non-uniform across age groups, with low coverage among elderly, the most vulnerable to SARS-CoV-2. We developed an agent-based model to precise the impact of digital contact tracing and household isolation on COVID-19 transmission. The model, calibrated on French population, integrates demographic, contact-survey and epidemiological information to describe the risk factors for exposure and transmission of COVID-19. We explored realistic levels of case detection, app adoption, population immunity and transmissibility. Assuming a reproductive ratio R=2.6 and 50% detection of clinical cases, a ~20% app adoption reduces peak incidence of ~36%. With R=1.7, >30% app adoption lowers the epidemic to manageable levels. Higher coverage among adults, playing a central role in COVID-19 transmission, yields an indirect benefit for elderly. These results may inform the inclusion of digital contact tracing within a COVID-19 response plan.

scholarly journals Estimating the impact of interventions against COVID-19: From lockdown to vaccination

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (12) ◽  
pp. e0261330
Author(s):  
James Thompson ◽  
Stephen Wattam
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Clustering ◽  
Herd Immunity ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Agent Based Model ◽  
Seir Model ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Resident Population ◽  
First Case ◽  
Equivalent Equation ◽  
The Impact

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is an infectious disease of humans caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Since the first case was identified in China in December 2019 the disease has spread worldwide, leading to an ongoing pandemic. In this article, we present an agent-based model of COVID-19 in Luxembourg, and use it to estimate the impact, on cases and deaths, of interventions including testing, contact tracing, lockdown, curfew and vaccination. Our model is based on collation, with agents performing activities and moving between locations accordingly. The model is highly heterogeneous, featuring spatial clustering, over 2000 behavioural types and a 10 minute time resolution. The model is validated against COVID-19 clinical monitoring data collected in Luxembourg in 2020. Our model predicts far fewer cases and deaths than the equivalent equation-based SEIR model. In particular, with R0 = 2.45, the SEIR model infects 87% of the resident population while our agent-based model infects only around 23% of the resident population. Our simulations suggest that testing and contract tracing reduce cases substantially, but are less effective at reducing deaths. Lockdowns are very effective although costly, while the impact of an 11pm-6am curfew is relatively small. When vaccinating against a future outbreak, our results suggest that herd immunity can be achieved at relatively low coverage, with substantial levels of protection achieved with only 30% of the population fully immune. When vaccinating in the midst of an outbreak, the challenge is more difficult. In this context, we investigate the impact of vaccine efficacy, capacity, hesitancy and strategy. We conclude that, short of a permanent lockdown, vaccination is by far the most effective way to suppress and ultimately control the spread of COVID-19.

scholarly journals THE ROLE OF MUSEUM’S ARCHITECTURE IN ISLAMIC COMMUNITY: MUSEUM OF ISLAMIC ART, DOHA

2012 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ali A. Alraouf
Keyword(s):  
Cultural Identity ◽  
Social Inclusion ◽  
Islamic Art ◽  
The People ◽  
The Social ◽  
New Vision ◽  
Contemporary Architecture ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Different Levels

<p class="Keywords">As we are heading through the second decade of the 21<sup>st</sup> century, architecture of the Islamic communities is still an unresolved dilemma. In this context, the impact of iconic buildings which claim to represent Islam or provide a contemporary approach to Islamic architecture is crucial on different levels. Therefore, a year after Museum of Islamic Art (MIA) opening in Doha, Qatar, an evaluative perspective of the institution’s development story needs to be sketched. In this essay I will use MIA, Doha as a springboard for a discussion related to the museums of the 21<sup>th</sup> century. Then, I will try to exploit the findings of this discussion in the assessment and critical review of the museum itself. The assessment will include the ability of contemporary architecture to credibly represent Islamic cultural identity. This essay will analyze how and why community participation in museums is a significant factor in bridging the gap and improving relationship between the two institutions. The social inclusion leads to trust, understanding, a sense of identity, and creating a museum that is more relevant to the community. This essay also give some suggestions on how to build bridges between museums and communities, to provide an opportunity for the people living in such communities, like Gulf ones, to find out about their own heritage and to help them realize that it is through their active participation in museum activities that heritage is kept alive. Considering Qatar’s thrive into a post-oil paradigm where knowledge economy might be the generative force for development, an examination of how MIA is contributing to Qatar’s new vision becomes so relevant.</p>

scholarly journals Impact of mobility restriction in COVID-19 superspreading events using agent-based model

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. e0248708
Author(s):  
L. L. Lima ◽  
A. P. F. Atman
Keyword(s):  
A Priori ◽  
Epidemiological Studies ◽  
Health Concern ◽  
Agent Based Model ◽  
Epidemiological Modeling ◽  
Network Nodes ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Interesting Approach ◽  
The Impact

COVID-19 pandemic is an immediate major public health concern. The search for the understanding of the disease spreading made scientists around the world turn their attention to epidemiological studies. An interesting approach in epidemiological modeling nowadays is to use agent-based models, which allow to consider a heterogeneous population and to evaluate the role of superspreaders in this population. In this work, we implemented an agent-based model using probabilistic cellular automata to simulate SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Recovered) dynamics using COVID-19 infection parameters. Differently to the usual studies, we did not define the superspreaders individuals a priori, we only left the agents to execute a random walk along the sites. When two or more agents share the same site, there is a probability to spread the infection if one of them is infected. To evaluate the spreading, we built the transmission network and measured the degree distribution, betweenness, and closeness centrality. The results displayed for different levels of mobility restriction show that the degree reduces as the mobility reduces, but there is an increase of betweenness and closeness for some network nodes. We identified the superspreaders at the end of the simulation, showing the emerging behavior of the model since these individuals were not initially defined. Simulations also showed that the superspreaders are responsible for most of the infection propagation and the impact of personal protective equipment in the spreading of the infection. We believe that this study can bring important insights for the analysis of the disease dynamics and the role of superspreaders, contributing to the understanding of how to manage mobility during a highly infectious pandemic as COVID-19.

scholarly journals An Agent-Based Model to Simulate the Spread of a Virus Based on Social Behavior and Containment Measures

Proceedings ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 54 (1) ◽  
pp. 22
Author(s):  
Manuel Seijas Carpente ◽  
Bertha Guijarro-Berdiñas ◽  
Amparo Alonso-Betanzos ◽  
Alejandro Rodríguez-Arias ◽  
Adina Dimitru
Keyword(s):  
Social Behavior ◽  
Social Relations ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Agent Based Model ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
The Social ◽  
The World ◽  
Containment Measures ◽  
Behavior Based ◽  
The Impact

COVID-19 has brought a new normality in society. However, to avoid the situation, the virus must be stopped. There are several ways in which the governments of the world have taken action, from small measures like general cleaning up to large-scale measures like confinement. In this work, we present an agent-based tool that allows for simulating the virus expansion as a function of these containment measures and the Social Behavior based on people needs, beliefs, and social relations. Once this tool has been validated, it will be useful to evaluate the impact of future containment measures so that the most balanced ones can be found for the effectiveness of the measures and their good reception by the population.

scholarly journals Anatomy of digital contact tracing: Role of age, transmission setting, adoption and case detection

2021 ◽  
pp. eabd8750
Author(s):  
Jesús A. Moreno López ◽  
Beatriz Arregui García ◽  
Piotr Bentkowski ◽  
Livio Bioglio ◽  
Francesco Pinotti ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Age Groups ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Case Detection ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Population Immunity ◽  
Contact Survey ◽  
Low Coverage ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Epidemiological Information

AbstractThe efficacy of digital contact tracing against COVID-19 epidemic is debated: smartphone penetration is limited in many countries, non-uniform across age groups, with low coverage among elderly, the most vulnerable to SARS-CoV-2. We developed an agent-based model to precise the impact of digital contact tracing and household isolation on COVID-19 transmission. The model, calibrated on French population, integrates demographic, contact-survey and epidemiological information to describe the risk factors for exposure and transmission of COVID-19. We explored realistic levels of case detection, app adoption, population immunity and transmissibility. Assuming a reproductive ratio R=2.6 and 50% detection of clinical cases, a ~20% app adoption reduces peak incidence by ~35%. With R=1.7, >30% app adoption lowers the epidemic to manageable levels. Higher coverage among adults, playing a central role in COVID-19 transmission, yields an indirect benefit for elderly. These results may inform the inclusion of digital contact tracing within a COVID-19 response plan.

Value-driven issues throughout the development of sociological theory

2020 ◽  
pp. 147-160
Author(s):  
Gulbarshyn Chepurko ◽  
Valerii Pylypenko
Keyword(s):  
Social Interactions ◽  
Social System ◽  
Sociological Theory ◽  
Social Scientists ◽  
Social Sphere ◽  
Technological Advances ◽  
The Social ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Different Levels

The paper examines and compares how the major sociological theories treat axiological issues. Value-driven topics are analysed in view of their relevance to society in times of crisis, when both societal life and the very structure of society undergo dramatic change. Nowadays, social scientists around the world are also witnessing such a change due to the emergence of alternative schools of sociological thought (non-classical, interpretive, postmodern, etc.) and, subsequently, the necessity to revise the paradigms that have been existed in sociology so far. Since the above-mentioned approaches are often used to address value-related issues, building a solid theoretical framework for these studies takes on considerable significance. Furthermore, the paradigm revision has been prompted by technological advances changing all areas of people’s lives, especially social interactions. The global human community, integral in nature, is being formed, and production of human values now matters more than production of things; hence the “expansion” of value-focused perspectives in contemporary sociology. The authors give special attention to collectivities which are higher-order units of the social system. These units are described as well-organised action systems where each individual performs his/her specific role. Just as the role of an individual is distinct from that of the collectivity (because the individual and the collectivity are different as units), so too a distinction is drawn between the value and the norm — because they represent different levels of social relationships. Values are the main connecting element between the society’s cultural system and the social sphere while norms, for the most part, belong to the social system. Values serve primarily to maintain the pattern according to which the society is functioning at a given time; norms are essential to social integration. Apart from being the means of regulating social processes and relationships, norms embody the “principles” that can be applied beyond a particular social system. The authors underline that it is important for Ukrainian sociology to keep abreast of the latest developments in the field of axiology and make good use of those ideas because this is a prerequisite for its successful integration into the global sociological community.

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