Suppression of High Frequencies in Time Series Using Fuzzy Transform of Higher Degree

Author(s):  
Michal Holčapek ◽  
Linh Nguyen
Author(s):  
Ferdinando Di Martino ◽  
Salvatore Sessa

We define a new seasonal forecasting method based on fuzzy transforms. We use the best interpolating polynomial for extracting the trend of the time series and generate the inverse fuzzy transform on each seasonal subset of the universe of discourse for predicting the value of a an assigned output. Like first example, we use the daily weather dataset of the municipality of Naples (Italy) starting from data collected from 2003 till to 2015 making predictions on the following outputs: mean temperature, max temperature and min temperature, all considered daily. Like second example, we use the daily mean temperature measured at the weather station “Chiavari Caperana” in the Liguria Italian Region. We compare the results with our method, the average seasonal variation, ARIMA and the usual fuzzy transforms concluding that the best results are obtained under our approach in both examples.


Sensors ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (16) ◽  
pp. 3611 ◽  
Author(s):  
Di Martino ◽  
Sessa

We present a new seasonal forecasting method based on F1-transform (fuzzy transform of order 1) applied on weather datasets. The objective of this research is to improve the performances of the fuzzy transform-based prediction method applied to seasonal time series. The time series’ trend is obtained via polynomial fitting: then, the dataset is partitioned in S seasonal subsets and the direct F1-transform components for each seasonal subset are calculated as well. The inverse F1-transforms are used to predict the value of the weather parameter in the future. We test our method on heat index datasets obtained from daily weather data measured from weather stations of the Campania Region (Italy) during the months of July and August from 2003 to 2017. We compare the results obtained with the statistics Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Automatic Design of Artificial Neural Networks (ADANN), and the seasonal F-transform methods, showing that the best results are just given by our approach.


Author(s):  
Maria Letizia Guerra ◽  
Laerte Sorini ◽  
Luciano Stefanini

Sentiment analysis to characterize properties of Bitcoin prices and their forecasting is here developed thanks to the capability of the Fuzzy transform to capture stylized facts and mutual connections between time series having different nature. Six years of daily Bitcoin Prices and Google Trends are analyzed in order to establish new perspectives in the management of their dynamics.


Axioms ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 139
Author(s):  
Maria Letizia Guerra ◽  
Laerte Sorini ◽  
Luciano Stefanini

Sentiment analysis to characterize the properties of Bitcoin prices and their forecasting is here developed thanks to the capability of the Fuzzy Transform (F-transform for short) to capture stylized facts and mutual connections between time series with different natures. The recently proposed Lp-norm F-transform is a powerful and flexible methodology for data analysis, non-parametric smoothing and for fitting and forecasting. Its capabilities are illustrated by empirical analyses concerning Bitcoin prices and Google Trend scores (six years of daily data): we apply the (inverse) F-transform to both time series and, using clustering techniques, we identify stylized facts for Bitcoin prices, based on (local) smoothing and fitting F-transform, and we study their time evolution in terms of a transition matrix. Finally, we examine the dependence of Bitcoin prices on Google Trend scores and we estimate short-term forecasting models; the Diebold–Mariano (DM) test statistics, applied for their significance, shows that sentiment analysis is useful in short-term forecasting of Bitcoin cryptocurrency.


2015 ◽  
Vol 25 (01) ◽  
pp. 1550013 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ricardo Araújo Rios ◽  
Michael Small ◽  
Rodrigo Fernandes de Mello

Surrogate data methods have been widely applied to produce synthetic data, while maintaining the same statistical properties as the original. By using such methods, one can analyze certain properties of time series. In this context, Theiler's surrogate data methods are the most commonly considered approaches. These are based on the Fourier transform, limiting them to be applied only on stationary time series. Consequently, time series including nonstationary behavior, such as trend, produces spurious high frequencies with Theiler's methods, resulting in inconsistent surrogates. To solve this problem, we present two new methods that combine time series decomposition techniques and surrogate data methods. These new methods initially decompose time series into a set of monocomponents and the trend. Afterwards, traditional surrogate methods are applied on those individual monocomponents and a set of surrogates is obtained. Finally, all individual surrogates plus the trend signal are combined in order to create a single surrogate series. Using this method, one can investigate linear and nonlinear Gaussian processes in time series, irrespective of the presence of nonstationary behavior.


1985 ◽  
Vol 7 ◽  
pp. 76-83 ◽  
Author(s):  
David A. Fisher ◽  
Niels Reeh ◽  
H.B. Clausen

Because of snow drifting, two time series of any variable derived from two adjacent ice cores will differ considerably. The size and statistical nature of this noise element is discussed for two kinds of measured substance. A theory is developed and compared to data from Greenland and Canadian Arctic ice cores. In case 1, the measured substance can diffuse and the seasonal cycle degrade with time and depth, e.g. δ(18O). In case 2, the measured substance cannot diffuse, e.g. microparticles. The case 2 time series contain drift noise proportional to that in the accumulation series. For accumulation series, the spectral power is concentrated at the high frequencies, i.e. is “blue”. Such noise can be easily reduced by taking relatively short time averages. The noise in the case 1 time series, however, starts out “blue” but quickly diffuses to have a “red” character with significant power at longer wavelengths, and many decades of such series must be averaged to reduce the noise level. Because the seasonal amplitude of any given variable is an important input to the drift noise and because the seasonal amplitudes of some variable types are latitude-dependent, some sites have inherently less drift noise than others.


2021 ◽  
Vol 7 ◽  
pp. e409
Author(s):  
Faramarz Saghi ◽  
Mustafa Jahangoshai Rezaee

Natural gas, known as the cleanest fossil fuel, plays a vital role in the economies of producing and consuming countries. Understanding and tracking the drivers of natural gas prices are of significant interest to the many economic sectors. Hence, accurately forecasting the price is very important not only for providing an effective factor for implementing energy policy but also for playing an extremely significant role in government strategic planning. The purpose of this study is to provide an approach to forecast the natural gas price. First, optimal time delays are identified by a new approach based on the Euclidean Distance between input and target vectors. Then, wavelet decomposition has been implemented to reduce noise. Moreover, fuzzy transform with different membership functions has been used for modeling uncertainty in time series. The wavelet decomposition and fuzzy transform have been integrated into the preprocessing stage. An ensemble method is used for integrating the outputs of various neural networks. The results depict that the proposed preprocessing methods used in this paper cause to improve the accuracy of natural gas price forecasting and consider uncertainty in time series.


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