How Should We Now Conceptualize Protest, Diffusion, and Regime Change?

2019 ◽  
Vol 63 (10) ◽  
pp. 2402-2415 ◽  
Author(s):  
Henry E. Hale
Keyword(s):  
Public Opinion ◽  
Arab Spring ◽  
Regime Change ◽  
Contentious Politics ◽  
Coordination Dynamics ◽  
Power Struggles ◽  
Democratic Regimes ◽  
The Future ◽  
Network Coordination

Brancati and Lucardi’s findings on the absence of “democracy protest” diffusion across borders raise important questions for the future of protest studies. I argue that this subfield would benefit from a stronger engagement with theory (in general) and from a “patronal politics” perspective (in particular) when it comes to researching protest in non-democratic regimes. This means curtailing a widespread practice of linking the study of protest with the study of democratization, questioning the dominant “contentious politics” framework as commonly conceptualized, and instead focusing more on the central role of patronal network coordination dynamics (especially elite splits) in driving both protest and the potential for regime change. This perspective emphasizes the role of domestically generated succession expectations and public opinion in generating the most meaningful elite splits, and reveals how protests can be important instruments in the resulting power struggles among rival networks. It accounts not only for why democracy protests do not diffuse from neighbor state to neighbor state as per Brancati and Lucardi, but also for the timing and distribution of protests related to the 1989 downfall of communist systems in Europe, the post-Soviet Color Revolutions of 2003-05, the collapse of regimes in the 2011 Arab Spring, and the apparent failure of many other protest attempts to force far-reaching regime change.

scholarly journals Finding the fuel of the Arab Spring fire: a historical data analysis

2018 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 58-68 ◽  
Author(s):  
Darryl Ahner ◽  
Luke Brantley
Keyword(s):  
Data Analysis ◽  
Open Source ◽  
Arab Spring ◽  
Principal Component Regression ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Arab Spring ◽  
Conflict Prediction ◽  
Selection Of

Purpose This paper aims to address the reasons behind the varying levels of volatile conflict and peace as seen during the Arab Spring of 2011 to 2015. During this time, higher rates of conflict transition occurred than normally observed in previous studies for certain Middle Eastern and North African countries. Design/methodology/approach Previous prediction models decrease in accuracy during times of volatile conflict transition. Also, proper strategies for handling the Arab Spring have been highly debated. This paper identifies which countries were affected by the Arab Spring and then applies data analysis techniques to predict a country’s tendency to suffer from high-intensity, violent conflict. A large number of open-source variables are incorporated by implementing an imputation methodology useful to conflict prediction studies in the future. The imputed variables are implemented in four model building techniques: purposeful selection of covariates, logical selection of covariates, principal component regression and representative principal component regression resulting in modeling accuracies exceeding 90 per cent. Findings Analysis of the models produced by the four techniques supports hypotheses which propose political opportunity and quality of life factors as causations for increased instability following the Arab Spring. Originality/value Of particular note is that the paper addresses the reasons behind the varying levels of volatile conflict and peace as seen during the Arab Spring of 2011 to 2015 through data analytics. This paper considers various open-source, readily available data for inclusion in multiple models of identified Arab Spring nations in addition to implementing a novel imputation methodology useful to conflict prediction studies in the future.

Islamism, Arab Spring, and the Future of Democracy

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leonid Grinin ◽  
Andrey Korotayev ◽  
Arno Tausch
Keyword(s):  
Arab Spring ◽  
The Future

Near Eastern archaeology and the Arab Spring: avoiding the ostrich effect

Antiquity ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 88 (340) ◽  
pp. 639-643 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael D. Danti
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
Arab Spring ◽  
Turning Point ◽  
Near Eastern ◽  
Rural Village ◽  
The Past ◽  
Syrian Civil War ◽  
The Future ◽  
Major Turning Point ◽  
The Arab Spring

As an American archaeologist who has worked in Syria, living in a rural village in Raqqa Province off and on for decades, I am frequently asked: did you see it coming? Were there early signs of the Arab Spring and the Syrian civil war? The answer is both yes and no. In retrospect, the signs were there, but foreign archaeologists did not always identify them. More often we simply chose to ignore them. Regardless, we have come to many important realisations. Foremost, Near Eastern archaeology has reached a major turning point, which raises a more pressing question: what now? Our answers will profoundly shape the future of our field. As archetypal students of history, we must learn from the lessons of the past and act. Playing the part of the metaphorical ostrich and burying our heads in the sand would be far easier, perhaps even customary, but this cannot be our course. A strong and engaged field is needed now more than ever—my primary intent here is to dissect what this means.

Part 3 Institutional Control of Constitutionalism, 3.2 Constitutional Jurisdiction and Its Limits in the Maghreb

2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gallala-Arndt Imen
Keyword(s):  
Arab Spring ◽  
Political Change ◽  
Constitutional Reform ◽  
The Political ◽  
Institutional Control ◽  
Political Actors ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Arab Spring

In the wake of the “Arab spring” constitutional reform is enjoying a prominent place in the debates on the future of the Maghreb countries. The potential and actual amendments of relevant constitutions are captivating the attention of all the political actors in and outside the region, since these new or amended constitutions will be the primary tools for the institutionalization of political change. This chapter examines the constitutions in the Maghreb before the pro-democratic upheavals. This helps explain, at least partly, the reasons for the unrest and puts into perspective the size of the challenges faced by the Maghreb countries in the process of constitutional reform and their prospects for success.

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