Energy Security Problem amid Global Energy Transition

In the early 2020s the worlds transition from carbon-intensive to climate-neutral energy use has already become a discernible and a difficult-to-reverse process. With Joe Bidens election as US president, the United States have returned to the Paris Climate Agreement and have become a key driver of this process (along with the EU and China). As a result, the international community has reached a consensus on the ongoing energy transition. This process will require considerable effort and may take several decades. Nevertheless, the impact of energy transition on traditional approaches to energy security, which emerged largely as a result of the global oil crises of the 1970s and 1980s and are centered around the supply of fossil fuels, is already a relevant research topic. This problem is examined relying on the relevant terminological, theoretical and factual material. The article concludes that energy transition will ultimately undermine the carbon paradigm that has underpinned energy security policies since the 1970s. Rapid development of renewable and other low-carbon energy sources will certainly remove key energy security risks of energy importers and, possibly, allow them to achieve energy independence. However, a post-carbon era may also generate new risks. For countries that rely heavily on oil, gas and coal exports, energy transition will result in the loss of markets and revenues. It may present an energy security threat for them as well as it will require a costly and technologically complex process of the energy sector decarbonization. Some exporters, especially those with high fuel rents and insufficient financial reserves, may face serious economic and social upheavals as a result of energy transition. The EU and the US energy transition policies reflect provisions of all three fundamental international relations theoretical paradigms, including realism. This means that the EU and the US policy, aimed at promoting climate agenda, may be expected to be rather tough and aggressive. China as the third key player in energy transition is still following a liberal course; however, it may change in the future.

Islamist Terrorism in the Context of Contemporary Hybrid Wars

The article deals with the present-day causes of the reproduction of Islamist terrorism. The concepts of desecularization, hybrid wars, and a system-functional approach form the methodological basis of the research. Recognizing the failure of liberal explanations of the causes of Islamist terrorism, the author criticizes the liberal methodology, which is based on an essentialist explanation of Islam and Muslim civilization and attributes a fixed set of qualities to Islam as an ontological evil, a barbarism hostile to Western civilization. The paper presents a viewpoint based on the approaches proposed by representatives of left-wing radical thought, postmodernism and neo-Marxism. It is concluded that the politicization of Islam, including its radical interpretations, is due not to the militant unchanging nature of Islam, but to the crisis of a number of Muslim societies. The Muslim worlds reaction to Western globalism is also an attempt to implement its own global political projects as a response of Islamic fundamentalism to the challenge of Western democratic fundamentalism. The author analyzes the phenomenon of hybrid wars as a form of armed violence that the Western world uses to restore order in its global empire. The connection between hybrid wars and the concept of a just war is shown, as well as the relevance of Islamist terrorism as an element of the system of hybrid wars. Islamist terrorism and counterterrorism are present in all hybrid wars waged in the Muslim world. This is manifested both in military actions on the ground, and in information warfare, as well as in virtual space. The market for terrorist and counterterrorist services inherent in hybrid wars and the place of Islamist terrorism in it are examined. Financial relations bind the participants in terrorist activities, including the customer, sponsor, mediator, organizer, informant, and performer. It is concluded that Islamist terrorism is not the activity of individual fanatics or a manifestation of the militant nature of Islam, but is produced by the conflict system of contemporary international relations.

Russia - Latin America Economic Cooperation: Insights from EU - CELAC Sustainable Development Concept

The article considers cooperation patterns between the European Union (EU) and CELAC (Community of Latin America and the Caribbean) in the context of creatively applying this experience to a broader topic of Russia - Latin America multilevel cooperation. The concept of sustainable development, which implies interaction in accordance with its three main dimensions: environmental, social and economic, is adopted on the global level. The interaction between EU and CELAC contributes to the progress in achieving the goals of sustainable development, where a lot of attention is paid to the green economy, alternative energy, and social aspects, since the environmental aspects constraints are providing the most significant impetus to structural changes in the existing development paradigm. This in return is expected to create a model that ensures economic growth based on a green economy, alternative energy, with greater equality and social inclusiveness. At supranational level in the European Union an effective and systemic policy has been formed in the field of nature conservation and combating climate change, which without a doubt can be considered one of the most progressive ones in the world, which creates potential for sharing these experiences with less developed and fortunate nations. European programs for Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) countries have become an important factor in the development of interregional cooperation in environmental protection, biodiversity conservation, and countering natural disasters. The article also focuses on the most recent changes that have occurred in the sphere of interaction between CELAC and EU in the context of COVID-19 pandemic. Massive structural and conceptual changes that have seriously reshaped the priorities and funding of joint programmers between two organizations reflects new priorities for sustainable development in general when it comes to new world realities in post-pandemic world, and could be useful for Russian model for the relations with this region.

German-Algerian Relations by the Early 2020s in the Context of the Germany’s Regional Policy: Political and Military Aspects

Since the beginning of the 21st century, there has been a noticeable increase in German efforts to ensure security in the Mediterranean Sea. This is part of the growing activities to ensure a strong strategic position in North and West Africa, including the settlement of existing armed conflicts here as sources of threats to instability for Germany and its EU partners. Consequently, Germany found itself increasingly interested in finding reliable strategic partners, one of which is Algeria, which makes the topic of this article relevant. The purpose of the study is to examine bilateral security and defense relations with a special focus on the second half of the 2010s and early 2020s with the help of comparative and event-analysis. Having an applied character, this topic has not yet found detailed coverage in the works of both domestic and foreign, especially German, researchers. The historic background of the German-Algerian dialogue is presented. The growth of high-level contacts in the second half of the 2010s is shown, with Germany having to focus on negotiations with the frequently changing figure of the Algerian prime minister. The article also explores the constraints for the cooperation of German and Algerian armed forces on land and sea, as well as the dynamics of military-technical cooperation. The bilateral cooperation in the resolution of the armed conflict in Mali, first of all, in its northern region (Gao, Kidal and Timbuktu) is considered. The political and diplomatic cooperation on the Libyan track in the middle and second half of the 2010s, as well as shortly after the Berlin Conference on Libya in January 2020, is revealed. In the early 2020s, there was a sharp decline in the intensity and volume of bilateral cooperation in almost all areas. In addition to COVID-19, the importance of domestic political factors and the temporary decline in the practical value of the partnership in Libya and Mali for Germany are stressed. A forecast of the dynamics of bilateral relations is finally given.

Book review: Trenin, D. (2021). New Balance of Power: Russia in Search of Foreign Policy Equilibrium. Moscow: Alpina Publisher, 471 p. (In Russian)

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The Islamist Challenge in the Greater Mediterranean

The article examines and analyzes the spread of Islamism or Political Islam movements in the Greater Mediterranean and their increasing influence on the socio-political situation in 2011-2021. The historical factors, which contributed to the emergence of the hearths of Islamic culture in the countries which entered the Arab Caliphate in the Greater Mediterranean parallel with the Antique centers of European civilization, are retrospectively exposed. The Islamist ideologues called the Ottoman Imperia the heir of the Arab Caliphate. The main doctrinal conceptions of Political Islam and its more influential movement Muslim Brotherhood (forbidden in Russia) are discovered. The factor of the Arab Spring, which considerably influenced the strengthening of the Islamist movements, as well as its continuation of the protests in the Arab countries in 2018-2021, is examined. The main attention is allotted to analyzing the actions of the Islamic movements in Tunisia, Egypt, Algeria, and in the Libyan and Syrian conflicts too. The influence of external actors, the most active of which was Turkey, is revealed. The author also analyzes the situation in the Arab-Muslim communities in the European Mediterranean on the example of France, where social-economic problems, aggravated by COVID-19, have contributed to the activation of radical Islamist elements. It is concluded that confronting the Islamist challenge is a complex and controversial task. Its solution depends on both forceful opposition to radical groups and an appropriate foreign policy. An important negative factor is the aggravation of socio-economic problems and crisis phenomena in the institutions of Western democracy, in response to which the ideologues of Islamism preach an alternative world order in the form of an Islamic state. At the moment the Western society and the countries which repeat its liberal model do not give a distinct response to this challenge.

International Aspects of Separatism in Contemporary Biafra

In the 21st century, the world at large and Africa in particular have encountered the rise of separatism, which has become one of the major challenges to stability. In Africa, over 20 countries face separatist movements, some of which demand full secession, while the rest - greater autonomy within the existing state. Most of Africas secessionist projects remain insignificant in scope and ineffectual, largely due to the absence or weakness of external support for separatists and to the commitment of the international community to preserve, with rare exceptions, the territorial integrity of states. The paper analyzes the reasons for the revival of the movement for the secession of Biafra decades after the end of the civil war between the central government of Nigeria and the separatists and looks into the international aspects that could fuel the conflict and exacerbate the military-political situation in West Africa, which is already turbulent due to the activities of Boko Haram terrorist group, other Islamist groupings in the Sahel, Cameroonian separatists of Ambazonia, etc. The present paper attempts to fill the gap in Russian Africanist literature on the current situation in Biafra, which is especially urgent due to the growing threat of separatism in Africa. Employing the historical approach, the authors analyze the nature of external involvement in the 1967-1970 Nigerian conflict, as well as methods of contemporary Biafran separatists, who seek international support. The paper concludes that due to various internal circumstances, as well as the practical lack of external material assistance, the establishment of a new Republic of Biafra will remain a utopian project for at least a decade, although separatist sentiments is likely to spread and hinder the achievement of internal political stability in West Africa, which is ridden with an increasing number of hot spots.

Book review: Morozova, N. N. (2022). Morocco and Jordan: Role of Islamic Factor in Politics. Moscow: Aspekt Press publ., 160 p. (In Russian)

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Book review: Konarovskiy, M. A. (2020). Afghanistan at the Turn of the Century: A New Crossroads of Fate. Moscow: MGIMO publ., 356 p. (In Russian)

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Russia, NATO and the Arctic: Rivalry, Security, Possible Scenarios of Geopolitical Competition

The article is devoted to the analysis of key aspects of the geopolitical struggle for the Arctic region. The relevance of the research stems from the fact that due to climate change and the reduction of ice cover in the Northern Hemisphere, the Arctic is of increasing interest to world powers, which are competing for control over new deposits of natural resources and strategic dominance in the region. It is emphasized that the Arctic has become a region where leading states are trying to implement various geopolitical strategies. On the one hand, the four members of the Arctic Five under the auspices of NATO are trying to implement a scenario in which the polar zone is divided into stable zones of influence. On the other hand, there are the interests and position of Russia, which is concerned about the increased military activity of the United States and NATO in the region. The purpose of the article is to study the problems of the Arctic militarization, which will make it possible to identify challenges and threats in this region for Russias national strategy. The research methodology is based on theoretical analysis and dialectical method. In addition, the study used formal logical methods and various approaches to information processing (analysis, synthesis, induction, deduction). The forecasting method helped to determine the range of possible military and political trends in the region. The article identifies the potential interests of Russia, the United States and NATO in the context of increased attention to the Arctic region in recent years. The study reflects a comparative analysis of the policies and interests of the member states of the Arctic Five and NATO, namely Denmark, Canada, Norway and the USA, their practical steps in the High North. The author describes possible prospects for interaction and dialogue on countering the main threats to international security within the framework of a comprehensive strategy. Considering the role and rivalry between Russia and NATO in the Arctic, the article highlights the authors forecasts of further military and political presence of NATO in the Arctic and the necessary actions for Russia to defend its northern territories.