Linking the Earth’s Future to Migration: Scenarios of Environmental Change and Possible Impacts on Forced Migration

Author(s):  
Johannes Frühmann ◽  
Jill Jäger
Author(s):  
Elizabeth Ferris

Abstract Today the issue of climate change-induced mobility—whether displacement, migration, or relocation—is receiving increased interest from policy-makers, academics, and the general public. Many are turning to the academic community for answers to basic questions (how many people are expected to move? when? where?) and for directions for future policies (what measures can support people to remain in their communities? If people have to move, how can the disruption be minimized—for those moving and for the affected communities?). While there is a growing body of literature on the issue, the academic community writ large is presently unable to provide consistent comprehensive evidence or guidance on these issues. Most obviously, there is no consensus about what terminology to use—climate change refugee? Environmental migrant? [e.g. Dun and Gemenne 2008. ‘Defining Environmental Migration’, Forced Migration Review, 31: 10–11]. Nor is there consensus on how many people are expected to move; different research projects use different time frames (2030, 2050, 2100, etc.), are based on different assumptions, and (not surprisingly) come up with different estimates, ranging from 50 million to 1 billion migrants associated with the effects of climate change during this century [e.g. Stern, N. (2006) ‘Stern review on the economics of climate change. Executive Summary’. London: HM Treasury. Baird 2007. Human Tide: The Real Migration Crisis: A Christian Aid Report. London: Christian Aid; UN Development Programme (UNDP) (2007/2008). Human Development Report: Fighting Climate Change, Human Solidarity in a Divided World; Kolmannskog 2009, Climate Change, Disaster, Displacement and Migration: Initial Evidence from Africa. New Issues in Refuge Research (Research Paper No. 180). Geneva: UNHCR; Warner 2009. Global Environmental Change and Migration: Governance Challenges. Global Environmental Change].


1997 ◽  
Vol 24 (3) ◽  
pp. 251-260 ◽  
Author(s):  
RICHARD BLACK ◽  
MOHAMED F. SESSAY

There is increasing international concern about the environmental impacts of refugees on host areas, with governments calling for compensation for environmental damage, particularly concerning the loss of woodland resources as a result of demand for wood for fuel. In addition to an obvious increase in the population of host areas, concern about refugees' woodfuel-use centres on the notion that they are 'exceptional resource degraders'. Since they view their stay as temporary, it is argued, they therefore do not have any incentive to use resources in a way that is sustainable in the long term. This study examined refugee migration to the middle valley of the Senegal River, and compared woodfuel use by refugee and local populations. Drawing on a household survey and direct measurement of woodfuel use, little or no evidence is found to support the expectation that refugees use more wood for fuel than local people, or that they are more destructive in their collection or use of wood. This is important since it suggests that policy measures developed to reduce what is perceived as excess demand by refugees, notably through the introduction of fuel-efficient stoves, are unlikely to be successful. Reforestation schemes have been relatively unsuccessful in addressing supply or demand for wood.


2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (14) ◽  
pp. 5702 ◽  
Author(s):  
Héctor Morales-Muñoz ◽  
Srijna Jha ◽  
Michelle Bonatti ◽  
Henryk Alff ◽  
Sabine Kurtenbach ◽  
...  

Migration, whether triggered by single events, such as violent conflict, or by long term pressures related to environmental change or food insecurity is altering sustainable development in societies. Although there is a large amount of literature, there is a gap for consolidating frameworks of migration-related to the interaction and correlation between drivers. We review scientific papers and research reports about three categories of drivers: Environmental Change (EC), Food Security (FS), and Violent Conflict (VC). First, we organize the literature to understand the explanations of the three drivers on migration individually, as well as the interactions among each other. Secondly, we analyse the literature produced regarding Colombia, Myanmar, and Tanzania; countries with different combinations of the driving factors for migration. Although we find that many correlations are explained in the literature, migration is mostly driven by structural vulnerabilities and unsustainable development paths in places that have a low resilience capacity to cope with risk. For example, food insecurity, as a product of environmental changes (droughts and floods), is seen as a mediating factor detonating violent conflict and migration in vulnerable populations. The paper contributes to the literature about multi-driven migration, presenting an overview of the way in which different driver combinations trigger migration. This is important for determining the best governance mechanisms and policy responses that tackle forced migration and improve the resilience of vulnerable communities as well as sustainable development.


Author(s):  
Lore Van Praag ◽  
Loubna Ou-Salah ◽  
Elodie Hut ◽  
Caroline Zickgraf

AbstractAs demonstrated in the previous chapters, land in Morocco is mainly used for farming and pastoral activities. These activities are more vulnerable to the consequences of increased precipitation and drought due to climate change. Various modern and traditional adaptation strategies – among which migration to urban centres or abroad – have been used to deal with environmental changes. This suggests that a large share of inhabitants are in some way aware of the changes in their natural environment and already familiar with adaptation strategies (Schilling et al. 2012; Mertz et al. 2009). However, in most studies, researchers focusing on this topic do not relate this to people’s overall views on environmental change and the adaptation strategies employed by the actors involved. When they do, they hardly focus on people living in the MENA region (Nielsen and D’haen 2014); West-Africa (Mertz et al. 2010, 2012; Afifi 2011; De Longueville et al. 2020); DR Congo (Bele et al. 2014; Few et al. 2017); and India (Howe et al. 2014). The only exception is the study on Morocco by Nguyen and Wodon (2014); Wodon et al. 2014). Hence, it is unclear how these environmental changes are actually perceived and how they influence the ways people view and respond to them, and (actively) develop adaptation strategies to deal with such changes (cf. Chap. 10.1007/978-3-030-61390-7_6). This is especially important since perceptions of environmental changes and the risks associated with them vary across and within cultures (Vedwan 2006; Mertz et al. 2009, 2010; Leclerc et al. 2013). Furthermore, there is a perception bias with regard to the perceived environmental changes, as some types of changes, such as rainfall patterns, are more easily noted and compared to others, such as temperature changes (Howe et al. 2014; Few et al. 2017; De Longueville et al. 2020; Bele et al. 2014). Additionally, people mainly remark on changes when these apply to their livelihood activities (Bele et al. 2014; Howe et al. 2014; Wodon et al. 2014; De Longueville et al. 2020). In current research and policymaking, ongoing debates on environmental migration and displacement too frequently assume that everyone perceives environmental change in a similar fashion. This becomes problematic in debates on environmental migration or climate refugees when environmental changes are assumed to automatically result in some kind of (forced) migration, leaving little space for the views and agency of the people involved (Stern 2000; McLeman and Gemenne 2018; Khare and Khare 2006; Rigby 2016).


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