Dynamic World Modelling by Dichotomic Information Sets and Graphical Inference

2011 ◽  
pp. 159-172
Author(s):  
Markus Steffens ◽  
Werner Krybus ◽  
Christine Kohring
Keyword(s):  
Information Sets

scholarly journals Nowcasting Regional GDP: The Case of the Free State of Saxony

2015 ◽  
Vol 66 (1) ◽  
pp. 71-98
Author(s):  
Steffen R. Henzel ◽  
Robert Lehmann ◽  
Klaus Wohlrabe
Keyword(s):  
Data Structure ◽  
Manufacturing Sector ◽  
Regional Level ◽  
Free State ◽  
Large Set ◽  
Regional Survey ◽  
Forecasting Accuracy ◽  
Leading Indicator ◽  
Information Sets ◽  
Survey Results

Abstract We tackle the nowcasting problem at the regional level, using a large set of indicators (regional, national and international) for the years 1998 to 2013. We explicitly take into account the ragged-edge data structure and consider the different information sets faced by a regional forecaster within each quarter. It appears that regional survey results in particular improve forecasting accuracy. Among the 10% best performing models for the short forecasting horizon, one fourth contain regional indicators. Hard indicators from the German manufacturing sector and the Composite Leading Indicator for Europe also deliver useful information for the prediction of regional GDP in Saxony. Unlike national GDP forecasts, the performance of regional GDP is similar across different information sets within a quarter.

scholarly journals Would depositors pay to show that they do not withdraw? Theory and experiment

2020 ◽  
Vol 23 (3) ◽  
pp. 873-894
Author(s):  
Markus Kinateder ◽  
Hubert János Kiss ◽  
Ágnes Pintér
Keyword(s):  
Multiple Equilibria ◽  
Financial Intermediation ◽  
Type Model ◽  
Unique Equilibrium ◽  
Equilibrium Outcome ◽  
Bank Run ◽  
Public Announcements ◽  
Information Sets ◽  
Theoretical Results ◽  
Theory And Experiment

Abstract In a Diamond–Dybvig type model of financial intermediation, we allow depositors to announce at a positive cost to subsequent depositors that they keep their funds deposited in the bank. Theoretically, the mere availability of public announcements (and not its use) ensures that no bank run is the unique equilibrium outcome. Multiple equilibria—including bank run—exist without such public announcements. We test the theoretical results in the lab and find a widespread use of announcements, which we interpret as an attempt to coordinate on the no bank run outcome. Withdrawal rates in general are lower in information sets that contain announcements.

Information Sets for Treatment Strategy Based on Expected Relapse Rates for Classes of Inmates

1968 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 288-301
Author(s):  
Justin Ciale ◽  
Pierre Landreville ◽  
Daniel Elie ◽  
Ezzat Fattah ◽  
Claude Perron ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Treatment Strategy ◽  
Information Sets ◽  
Relapse Rates

Economic Environments

2013 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lars Peter Hansen ◽  
Thomas J. Sargent
Keyword(s):  
Consumer Goods ◽  
Discount Factor ◽  
Economic Environment ◽  
Technology Shocks ◽  
Preference Ordering ◽  
Consumer Durables ◽  
Information Sets ◽  
Laws Of Motion ◽  
Consumption Goods

This chapter describes an economic environment with five components: a sequence of information sets, laws of motion for taste and technology shocks, a technology for producing consumption goods, a technology for producing services from consumer durables and consumption purchases, and a preference ordering over consumption services. A particular economy is described by a set of matrices that characterize the motion of information sets and of taste and technology shocks; matrices that determine the technology for producing consumption goods; matrices that determine the technology for producing consumption services from consumer goods; and a scalar discount factor that helps determine the preference ordering over consumption services. The chapter describes and gives examples of each component of the economic environment.

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