Helicobacter pylori in Human Populations: The Present and Predictions of the Future Based on the Epidemiology of Polio

1991 ◽  
pp. 97-102 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Y. Graham
Keyword(s):  
Helicobacter Pylori ◽  
Human Populations ◽  
The Future

scholarly journals Estimating the Force of Infection with Helicobacter pylori in Japan

2019 ◽  
Vol 2019 ◽  
pp. 1-7 ◽  
Author(s):  
Taishi Kayano ◽  
Ki-Deok Lee ◽  
Hiroshi Nishiura
Keyword(s):  
Gastric Cancer ◽  
Helicobacter Pylori ◽  
World War Ii ◽  
Time Course ◽  
Force Of Infection ◽  
Seroprevalence Data ◽  
Age Dependent ◽  
The Future ◽  
Parameterized Model ◽  
H Pylori

Background. Although the seroprevalence against Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori) in Japan has declined over the birth year, Japanese people have yet exhibited a relatively high risk of gastric cancer. The present study employed mathematical models to estimate the time- and age-dependent force of infection with H. pylori in Japan, predicting the future seroprevalence by time and age. Methods. We investigated the published seroprevalence data against H. pylori in Japan from 1980–2018. Solving the McKendrick partial differential equation model, the seroprevalence was modeled as a function of survey year and age. Maximum likelihood estimation was conducted to estimate parameters governing the time- and age-dependent force of infection. Results. Among all fitted models, the time-dependent and age-independent model with an exponentially decaying force of infection over years was most favored. Fitted models indicated that the force of infection started to decrease during and/or shortly after the World War II. Using the parameterized model, the predicted fraction seropositive at the age of 40 years in 2018 was 0.22, but it is expected to decrease to 0.13 in 2030 and 0.05 in 2050, respectively. Conclusion. The time dependence was consistent with the decline in the force of infection as a function of the birth year. The force of infection has continuously and greatly declined over time, implying the diminished transmission of H. pylori through the time course and small chance of persistence. These findings are critical to anticipate the future decline in gastric cancer incidence.

Cremated Human Remains from Point of Pines, Arizona: A New Approach

1967 ◽  
Vol 32 (4) ◽  
pp. 498-506 ◽  
Author(s):  
Charles F. Merbs
Keyword(s):  
Human Remains ◽  
Human Populations ◽  
New Approach ◽  
Human Osteology ◽  
Skeletal Anomalies ◽  
Biological Studies ◽  
The Future ◽  
Discrete Traits ◽  
Traditional Approaches ◽  
And Storage

AbstractThe traditional approaches of comparative human osteology have proven largely unsatisfactory in attempts to determine biological relationships among human populations which cremated their dead. However, one category of information, that of discrete traits or skeletal anomalies, has been largely ignored. Cremations from Point of Pines, Arizona, were analyzed to determine if this kind of information, along with that usually sought from skeletal material, could be obtained in sufficient quantity to make comparative biological studies feasible. The results were encouraging, but they indicate that extraordinary care will be required in the future excavation and storage of cremated material.

scholarly journals Interactions among Strategies Associated with Bacterial Infection: Pathogenicity, Epidemicity, and Antibiotic Resistance

2002 ◽  
Vol 15 (4) ◽  
pp. 647-679 ◽  
Author(s):  
José L. Martínez ◽  
Fernando Baquero
Keyword(s):  
Antibiotic Resistance ◽  
Bacterial Virulence ◽  
Human Populations ◽  
Genetic Determinants ◽  
Bacterial Populations ◽  
Antibiotic Resistant ◽  
Regulatory Circuits ◽  
The Future ◽  
History Of ◽  
Evolutionary Consequences

SUMMARY Infections have been the major cause of disease throughout the history of human populations. With the introduction of antibiotics, it was thought that this problem should disappear. However, bacteria have been able to evolve to become antibiotic resistant. Nowadays, a proficient pathogen must be virulent, epidemic, and resistant to antibiotics. Analysis of the interplay among these features of bacterial populations is needed to predict the future of infectious diseases. In this regard, we have reviewed the genetic linkage of antibiotic resistance and bacterial virulence in the same genetic determinants as well as the cross talk between antibiotic resistance and virulence regulatory circuits with the aim of understanding the effect of acquisition of resistance on bacterial virulence. We also discuss the possibility that antibiotic resistance and bacterial virulence might prevail as linked phenotypes in the future. The novel situation brought about by the worldwide use of antibiotics is undoubtedly changing bacterial populations. These changes might alter the properties of not only bacterial pathogens, but also the normal host microbiota. The evolutionary consequences of the release of antibiotics into the environment are largely unknown, but most probably restoration of the microbiota from the preantibiotic era is beyond our current abilities.

scholarly journals More perceived but not faster evolution of heat stress than temperature extremes in the future

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Audrey Brouillet ◽  
Sylvie Joussaume
Keyword(s):  
Heat Stress ◽  
Human Body ◽  
Stress Index ◽  
Human Populations ◽  
World Population ◽  
Tropical Regions ◽  
Annual Variability ◽  
The Future ◽  
Perceived Change ◽  
Heat Stress Index

<p>Global warming is projected to intensify during the 21st century. This warming will be more readily perceived by human populations if it occurs rapidly and if it induces a thermal heat stress on the human body. Yet, only few studies investigate how climate change could be felt by future populations. Here we assess this possible perceived evolution between 1959 and 2100 only combining thermodynamic and statistical indicators. We analyse extremes of temperature (T<sub>99</sub>) and simplified Wet-Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT<sub>99</sub>), a common heat stress index assessing the combined effect of elevated temperature and humidity on the human body. For each year of the period, we define the speed of change as a difference between two successive 20-year periods (i.e. with a moving baseline), and assess how these running changes emerge from each last 20-y inter-annual variability.</p><p>According to a subset of 12 CMIP5 Earth System Models and the RCP8.5 scenario, the change of T<sub>99</sub> and WBGT<sub>99</sub> will be twice as fast in the future compared to the current speed of change in the mid-latitudes, and by up to four times faster tropical regions such as Amazonia. Warming accelerations are thus similar for both T<sub>99</sub> and WBGT<sub>99</sub>. However, in tropical regions by 2080, the speed is projected to be 2.3 times larger than the recent inter-annual variability for WBGT<sub>99</sub>, and only 1.5 to 1.8 times larger for T<sub>99</sub>. Currently, speeds of change are only 0.2 to 0.8 times as large as the recent year-to-year variability for both metrics. We also show that 36% of the total world population will experience an emergent WBGT<sub>99</sub> intensification in 2080, but only 15% of the population for T<sub>99</sub>. According to future projections, the accelerated warming of future heat extremes will be more felt by populations than current changes, and this perceived change will be more severe for WBGT<sub>99</sub> than for T<sub>99</sub>, particularly in the tropics.</p>

Three-decade failure to eradication of refractory Helicobacter pylori infec-tion and recent efforts to eradicate the infection

2020 ◽  
Vol 21 ◽  
Author(s):  
Majid Taati Moghadam ◽  
Zahra Chegini ◽  
Amin Norouzi ◽  
Amin Sadeghi Dosari ◽  
Aref Shariati
Keyword(s):  
Gastric Cancer ◽  
Helicobacter Pylori ◽  
Bacterial Load ◽  
Duodenal Ulcers ◽  
The Future ◽  
Patient Cooperation ◽  
Dormant Forms ◽  
Stomach Ph ◽  
High Bacterial Load ◽  
H Pylori

Background: Helicobacter pylori causes dangerous and deadly diseases such as gastric cancer and duodenal ulcers. Eradication and treatment of this bacterium are very important due to the deadly diseases caused by H. pylori and the high cost of treatment for countries. So, we present a complete list of the most important causes of failure in the treatment and eradication of H. pylori, and addresses new therapeutic methods that may be effective in controlling this bacterium in the future. Results: Many efforts have been made to control and eradicate this bacterium over the years, but no success has been achieved since its eradication is a complex process affected by the bacterial properties and host factors. Previous studies have shown that various factors are involved in failure to eradicate H. pylori, such as new genotypes of the bacterium with higher pathogenicity, inappropriate patient cooperation, mutations, biofilm formation and dormant forms that cause antibiotic resistance, acidic stomach pH, high bacterial load, smoking, immunosuppressive features and intracellular occurrence of H. pylori. On the other hand, recent studies reported that the use of probiotics, nanoparticles, antimicrobial peptides, natural product and vaccine can be helpful in the treatment and eradication of H. pylori infections. Conclusion: Eradication of H. pylori is crucial for the treatment of important diseases such as gastric cancer. Therefore, it seems that identifying the failure causes of treating this bacterium can be helpful in controlling the infections. Besides, further studies on new therapeutic strategies may help eradicate H. pylori in the future.

The Study of Growth in Skeletal Populations

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Simon Mays
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Methods ◽  
Skeletal Growth ◽  
Long Bone ◽  
Human Populations ◽  
Dental Age ◽  
Growth Studies ◽  
New Directions ◽  
The Future

Classically, the study of skeletal growth in earlier human populations has involved the study of long-bone lengths versus dental age, making comparisons between archaeological groups or between archaeological and modern populations. Although this continues to be an important avenue of scholarly enquiry in archaeological growth studies, some important new directions have recently been explored. There has also been an increased diversity to the statistical methods used to model and investigate skeletal growth in archaeological populations, and increased recognition of some of the limitations of growth studies using archaeological populations. This chapter outlines developments in these areas and discusses prospects for the future of archaeological studies of human skeletal growth.

Managing risks to Canada’s boreal zone: transdisciplinary thinking in pursuit of sustainability1

2019 ◽  
Vol 27 (3) ◽  
pp. 407-418 ◽  
Author(s):  
Irena F. Creed ◽  
Peter N. Duinker ◽  
Jacqueline N. Serran ◽  
James W.N. Steenberg
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Human Populations ◽  
Boreal Zone ◽  
Top Down ◽  
Governance Systems ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Face ◽  
Iso 31000

The policy landscape is changing as Canada considers its energy future. The Canadian boreal zone has a large amount of natural resources, giving Canada options in terms of its energy future. However, the sustainability of the boreal zone has been deemed at risk because of the cumulative effects of intensifying natural resource activities (forestry, mining, oil and gas, and renewable energy) on ecosystems in the face of the uncertainty associated with climate change. As Canada considers the future of the boreal zone, there will be additional challenges to ensure that we do not further disadvantage marginalized human populations living in the boreal zone who are at high risk of the consequences of climate change. In response to these challenges, the Boreal 2050 project was initiated to understand the risk of failing to achieve the future sustainability of the boreal zone using the ISO 31000 risk management framework. First, we identified the major drivers of the risks to the sustainability of the boreal zone, which include atmospheric change, the demand for provisioning and nonprovisioning ecosystem services, demographics and societal values, industrial innovation and infrastructure, and governance. Second, we analyzed the risk of failing to achieve a sustainable boreal zone using scenario analysis, where we framed four plausible future scenarios around two axes of change: the global economy’s energy and society’s capacity to adapt. Third, we evaluated the risk and determined that present governance systems are driving Canada towards failing to achieve a sustainable boreal zone. To ensure the future sustainability of the boreal, we need to shift from an oil/gas/coal-producing country to a renewable energy leader and shift from using a top-down strategy where Canadians have a low capacity to adapt towards a mixture of top-down and bottom-up participatory strategies where Canadians—particularly Indigenous peoples living in the boreal zone—have a higher capacity to adapt. To facilitate this shift in governance, substantive changes will be required in institutional arrangements designed to protect boreal ecosystems.

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