Bifurcation Mechanisms and Atmospheric Blocking

Author(s):  
E. Källén
Keyword(s):  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Francisco Estrada ◽  
Dukpa Kim ◽  
Pierre Perron

AbstractDue to various feedback processes called Arctic amplification, the high-latitudes’ response to increases in radiative forcing is much larger than elsewhere in the world, with a warming more than twice the global average. Since the 1990’s, this rapid warming of the Arctic was accompanied by no-warming or cooling over midlatitudes in the Northern Hemisphere in winter (the hiatus). The decrease in the thermal contrast between Arctic and midlatitudes has been connected to extreme weather events in midlatitudes via, e.g., shifts in the jet stream towards the equator and increases in the probability of high-latitude atmospheric blocking. Here we present an observational attribution study showing the spatial structure of the response to changes in radiative forcing. The results also connect the hiatus with diminished contrast between temperatures over regions in the Arctic and midlatitudes. Recent changes in these regional warming trends are linked to international actions such as the Montreal Protocol, and illustrate how changes in radiative forcing can trigger unexpected responses from the climate system. The lesson for climate policy is that human intervention with the climate is already large enough that even if stabilization was attained, impacts from an adjusting climate are to be expected.


2021 ◽  
Vol 34 (6) ◽  
pp. 395-399
Author(s):  
I.I. Mokhov ◽  
S.A. Sitnov ◽  
M.N. Tsidilina ◽  
O.S. Voronova

2012 ◽  
Vol 27 (3) ◽  
pp. 263-271 ◽  
Author(s):  
Monica Cristina Damião Mendes ◽  
Iracema F. A. Cavalcanti ◽  
Dirceu Luis Herdies

An assessment of blocking episodes over the Southern Hemisphere, selected from the Era-40 and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis are presented in this study. Blocking can be defined by an objective index based on two 500 hPa geopotential height meridional gradients. The seasonal cycle and preferential areas of occurrence are well reproduced by the two data sets. In both reanalysis used in this study, South Pacific and Oceania were the preferred regions for blocking occurrence, followed by the Atlantic Ocean. However the results revealed differences in frequencies of occurrences, which may be related to the choice of assimilation scheme employed to produce the reanalysis data sets. It is important to note that the ERA 40 and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis were produced using consistent models and assimilation schemes throughout the whole reanalyzed period, which are different for each set.


2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Tsubasa Kodaira ◽  
Takuji Waseda ◽  
Takehiko Nose ◽  
Jun Inoue

AbstractArctic sea ice is rapidly decreasing during the recent period of global warming. One of the significant factors of the Arctic sea ice loss is oceanic heat transport from lower latitudes. For months of sea ice formation, the variations in the sea surface temperature over the Pacific Arctic region were highly correlated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). However, the seasonal sea surface temperatures recorded their highest values in autumn 2018 when the PDO index was neutral. It is shown that the anomalous warm seawater was a rapid ocean response to the southerly winds associated with episodic atmospheric blocking over the Bering Sea in September 2018. This warm seawater was directly observed by the R/V Mirai Arctic Expedition in November 2018 to significantly delay the southward sea ice advance. If the atmospheric blocking forms during the PDO positive phase in the future, the annual maximum Arctic sea ice extent could be dramatically reduced.


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