Responsibility of major emitters for country-level warming and extreme hot years

The contributions of single greenhouse gas emitters to country-level climate change are generally not disentangled, despite their relevance for climate policy and litigation. Here, we quantify the contributions of the five largest emitters (China, US, EU-27, India, and Russia) to projected 2030 country-level warming and extreme hot years with respect to pre-industrial climate using an innovative suite of Earth System Model emulators. We find that under current pledges, their cumulated 1991–2030 emissions are expected to result in extreme hot years every second year by 2030 in twice as many countries (92%) as without their influence (46%). If all world nations shared the same fossil CO2 per capita emissions as projected for the US from 2016–2030, global warming in 2030 would be 0.4 °C higher than under actual current pledges, and 75% of all countries would exceed 2 °C of regional warming instead of 11%. Our results highlight the responsibility of individual emitters in driving regional climate change and provide additional angles for the climate policy discourse.

Diurnal and seasonal variation of planetary boundary layer height over East Asia and its climatic change as seen in the ERA-5 reanalysis data

The diurnal/seasonal structure of the boundary layer height (BLH) is investigated over East Asia by using the hourly synoptic monthly ERA5 reanalysis variables from 1979 to 2019. Sensible heat flux (SHF) is the major factor in the temporal and spatial variation of the BLH. Although BLH, in general, is positively correlated with SHF throughout the year, BLH-SHF relationship varies significantly based on the surface type, latitude and time of the year. Analysis also reveals that stability is an important parameter controlling the diurnal maximum BLH. The growth of BLH is strongly limited by the presence of a stable layer. On the other hand, BLH increases abruptly in the presence of a weakly stratified residual layer. In addition, regional warming tends to increase the BLH in the mid- to high-latitude continental area. In the low-latitude continental area, the sign of anomalous SHF varies seasonally and regionally. Stability plays only a minor role in the BLH change except over the Tibetan Plateau, where the increased stability at the top of boundary layer due to warming reduces BLH rather significantly.

Evidence of elevation-dependent warming from the Chinese Tian Shan

The phenomenon in which the warming rate of air temperature is amplified with elevation is termed elevation-dependent warming (EDW). It has been clarified that EDW can accelerate the retreat of glaciers and melting of snow, which can have significant impacts on the regional ecological environment. Owing to the lack of high-density ground observations in high mountains, there is widespread controversy regarding the existence of EDW. Current evidence is mainly derived from typical high-mountain regions such as the Swiss Alps, the Colorado Rocky Mountains, the tropical Andes and the Tibetan Plateau–Himalayas. Rare evidence in other mountain ranges has been reported, especially in arid regions. In this study, EDW features (regional warming amplification and altitude warming amplification) in the Chinese Tian Shan (CTM) were detected using a unique high-resolution (1 km, 6-hourly) air temperature dataset (CTMD) from 1979 to 2016. The results showed that there were significant EDW signals at different altitudes on different timescales. The CTM showed significant regional warming amplification in spring, especially in March, and the warming trends were greater than those of continental China with respect to three temperatures (minimum temperature, mean temperature and maximum temperature). The significance values of EDW above different altitude thresholds are distinct for three temperatures in 12 months. The warming rate of the minimum temperature in winter showed a significant elevation dependence (p<0.01), especially above 3000 m. The greatest altitudinal gradient in the warming rate of the maximum temperature was found above 4000 m in April. For the mean temperature, the warming rates in June and August showed prominent altitude warming amplification but with different significance above 4500 m. Within the CTM, the Tolm Mountains, the eastern part of the Borokoonu Mountains, the Bogda Mountains and the Balikun Mountains are representative regions that showed significant altitude warming amplification on different timescales. This new evidence could partly explain the accelerated melting of snow in the CTM, although the mechanisms remain to be explored.

Snowmelt rate and continuity determine the intra-annual variability and magnitude of streamflow in three alpine watersheds in the western U.S.

In semiarid to arid regions of the western U. S., the availability and variability of river flow are highly subject to shifts in snow accumulation and ablation in alpine watersheds. This study aims to examine how shifts in snowmelt rate (SMR) and snow continuity, an indicator of the consistent existence of snow on the ground, affect snow-driven streamflow dynamics in three alpine watersheds in the U.S. Great Basin. To achieve this end, the coupled hydro-ecological simulation system (CHESS) is used to simulate river flow dynamics and multiple snow metrics are calculated to quantify the variation of snowmelt rate and snow continuity, the latter of which is measured, respectively, by snow persistence (SP), snow residence time (SRT) and snow season length (SSL). Then, a new approach is proposed to partition streamflow into snow-driven and rain-driven streamflow. The statistical analyses indicate that the three alpine watersheds experienced a downward trend in SP, SRT, SSL and SMR during the study period of 1990-2016 due to regional warming. As a result, the decrease in SMR and the decline in snow continuity shifted the day of 25% and 50% of the snow-driven cumulative discharge as well as peak discharge toward an earlier occurrence. Besides, the magnitudes of snow-driven annual streamflow, summer baseflow and peak discharge also decreased due to the declined snow continuity and the reduced snowmelt rate. Overall, by using multiple snow and flow metrics as well as by partitioning streamflow into snow-driven and rain-driven flow via the newly proposed approach, we found that snowmelt rate and snow continuity determine the streamflow hydrographs and magnitudes in the three alpine watersheds. This has important implications for water resource management in the snow-dominated region facing future climate warming given that warming can significantly affect snow dynamics in alpine watersheds in semiarid to arid regions.

Future summer warming pattern under climate change is affected by lapse-rate changes

Greenhouse-gas-driven global temperature change projections exhibit spatial variations, meaning that certain land areas will experience substantially enhanced or reduced surface warming. It is vital to understand enhanced regional warming anomalies as they locally increase heat-related risks to human health and ecosystems. We argue that tropospheric lapse-rate changes play a key role in shaping the future summer warming pattern around the globe in mid-latitudes and the tropics. We present multiple lines of evidence supporting this finding based on idealized simulations over Europe, as well as regional and global climate model ensembles. All simulations consistently show that the vertical distribution of tropospheric summer warming is different in regions characterized by enhanced or reduced surface warming. Enhanced warming is projected where lapse-rate changes are small, implying that the surface and the upper troposphere experience similar warming. On the other hand, strong lapse-rate changes cause a concentration of warming in the upper troposphere and reduced warming near the surface. The varying magnitude of lapse-rate changes is governed by the temperature dependence of the moist-adiabatic lapse rate and the available tropospheric humidity. We conclude that tropospheric temperature changes should be considered along with surface processes when assessing the causes of surface warming patterns.

Wave Climate Associated With Changing Water Level and Ice Cover in Lake Michigan

Detailed knowledge of wave climate change is essential for understanding coastal geomorphological processes, ecosystem resilience, the design of offshore and coastal engineering structures and aquaculture systems. In Lake Michigan, the in-situ wave observations suitable for long-term analysis are limited to two offshore MetOcean buoys. Since this distribution is inadequate to fully represent spatial patterns of wave climate across the lake, a series of high-resolution SWAN model simulations were performed for the analysis of long-term wave climate change for the entirety of Lake Michigan from 1979 to 2020. Model results were validated against observations from two offshore buoys and 16 coastal buoys. Linear regression analysis of significant wave height (Hs) (mean, 90th percentile, and 99th percentile) across the entire lake using this 42-year simulation suggests that there is no simple linear trend of long-term changes of Hs for the majority (&gt;90%) of the lake. To address the inadequacy of linear trend analysis used in previous studies, a 10-year trailing moving mean was applied to the Hs statistics to remove seasonal and annual variability, focusing on identifying long-term wave climate change. Model results reveal the regime shifts of Hs that correspond to long-term lake water level changes. Specifically, downward trends of Hs were found in the decade of 1990–2000; low Hs during 2000–2010 coincident with low lake levels; and upward trends of Hs were found during 2010–2020 along with rising water levels. The coherent pattern between the wave climate and the water level was hypothesized to result from changing storm frequency and intensity crossing the lake basin, which influences both waves (instantly through increased wind stress on the surface) and water levels (following, with a lag through precipitation and runoff). Hence, recent water level increases and wave growth were likely associated with increased storminess observed in the Great Lakes. With regional warming, the decrease in ice cover in Lake Michigan (particularly in the northernmost region of the lake) favored the wave growth in the winter due to increased surface wind stress, wind fetch, and wave transmission. Model simulations suggest that the basin-wide Hs can increase significantly during the winter season with projected regional warming and associated decreases in winter ice cover. The recent increases in wave height and water level, along with warming climate and ice reduction, may yield increasing coastal damages such as accelerating coastal erosion.

The U.S. North Pacific Region

This chapter describes the North Pacific region and the major issues facing this marine fisheries ecosystem, and presents some summary statistics related to the 90 indicators of ecosystem-based fisheries management (EBFM) criteria. The North Pacific contains the fifth-highest number of managed taxa, including commercially and recreationally important groundfish (e.g., walleye pollock, Pacific cod, sablefish, lingcod, halibut, rockfishes, yellowfin sole), cephalopods, king-and Tanner crabs, salmon, and steelhead. The North Pacific ecosystem has biota and marine communities that are responding to the consequences of fishing pressure, climate oscillations, and other ocean uses. More recent stressors, including substantial regional warming, associated species shifts, increasing human population density, and proliferation of invasive species are affecting this system and altering its composition, dynamics, and LMR production. Overall, a moderate to high degree of EBFM progress has been made in the eastern Bering Sea, Aleutian Islands, and Gulf of Alaska in terms of implementation, advancing knowledge of ecosystem principles, examining trade-offs, assessing risks and vulnerabilities, and in beginning to establish and use ecosystem-level reference points for management. While much information has been obtained and applied toward ecosystem-level calculations, syntheses, and models, continued progress in applying these system-wide emergent properties into regional management frameworks remains necessary.

Environmental Considerations for the Management of the Bivalve Fisheries of Bahía Magdalena (Mexico), a Coastal Lagoon at the Southern End of the California Current

This study presents an overview of bivalve assemblages in Bahia Magdalena (BM, México) and the possible impact of environmental variability on these populations, constantly stressed by fishing. This lagoon is responsible for a high proportion of harvest of regional bivalves. First, we list the bivalve species reported in public biogeographic databases. Based on eight commercially exploited species, we described the composition of the bivalve assemblage and its biological characteristics, the history of fishery, and environmental variability in the marine area adjacent to the lagoon (1970–2019) and the habitat of bivalves (2002–2020). Sources of data were public databases and published literature. The enlisted species (n = 184) belong to six orders, and most are small and infaunal, but the structure of the assemblage is unknown. The fisheries began at different times and focused on the most valuable resources. Almost all harvest of bivalves had wide variations because of intensive fishing and a weak regulation frame. After 2015, the main resources were the Pacific wing-oyster (a new resource since 2017) and the geoduck clam due to the declining abundance of other resources (e.g., pen shells, Pacific calico scallop). There was a warming trend in the region since the 1970's, but the strongest El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases caused the most notable changes before 2013; after that year, a combination of large-scale phenomena increased the temperature significantly. The trend of chlorophyll-a abundance negatively correlated with temperature, but there was an almost constant supply of particulate organic matter in the interior of Bahia Magdalena (BM). After 2015, the quality of lagoon water gradually deteriorated, and in 2017 and 2019, harmful algal blooms developed, but the impact was not fully assessed. The challenges faced by the fishery are multiple (institutional weakness and regional warming); however, permanent monitoring programs of environmental conditions and critical biological variables should be implemented to design scenarios that allow fishery sustainability.

Fire-weather interaction fed the 2020 western USA gigafire

Wildfires threaten human lives, destroy infrastructure, disrupt economic activity, and damage ecosystem services. A record-breaking gigafire event ravaged the western United States (USA) in mid-September 2020, burning 1.2 million acres (4,900 km2) in Oregon and California, and resulting in severe smoke pollution with daily fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations over 300 µg/m3 for multiple days in many cities. Although previous studies have shown that regional warming escalates wildfire in the western USA, such an unprecedented fire cannot be explained by climate variability alone. Here we show that the synoptic-scale feedback between the wildfires and weather played an unexpectedly important role in accelerating the spread of this fire and also trapped pollutants in the shallow boundary layer over valley cities. Specifically, we find that aerosol-radiation interaction of the smoke plumes over the Cascade Mountains enhanced the downslope winds and weakened the moisture transport, thereby forming a positive feedback loop that amplified the fires and contributed to ~54% of estimated air-pollution related deaths. Our study underscores the complexity of the Earth system and the importance of understanding fundamental mechanisms to effectively mitigate disaster risks in a changing climate.

Soil moisture continues declining in North China over the regional warming slowdown of the past 20 years

Soil moisture is an important variable of the climate system and is used to measure dry–wet change in hydro-climate. The warming trend has slowed in China over the past 20 years since 1998, and how the soil moisture changes in this period deserves our attention. With North China as a research region, this study uses the Global Land Data Assimilation System and ground observations to investigate the causes of changes in soil moisture during 1998–2017 versus 1961–1997. The results show that: (1) annual mean soil moisture experienced an almost continued decrease from to 1960s to 2010s, and no pause in the decrease of soil moisture over the regional warming slowdown of the past 20 years could be detected; (2) with the stabilization or even increase in solar radiation and wind speed as well as the continuous increase land surface air temperature, the impact of potential evapotranspiration on soil moisture gradually became prominent, and the impact of precipitation decreased, since 1998; (3) the percent contribution of annual potential evapotranspiration to soil moisture variation increased by 26% during 1998–2017 relative to that in 1961–1997, and the percent contribution of summer potential evapotranspiration even increased by 45%. Our results will provide insight into the land surface water budget and mechanism involved in drought development in North China.