Antarctic ozone recovery

Since 1976, and more so since 1985, the Antarctic ozone level has suffered considerable depletion (termed as Antarctic ozone hole), attributed to the destructive effects of CFC compounds leaking into the atmosphere from man-made gadgets. The 12-month running means of South Pole Dobson ozone (monthly means, upto 1999 end only) were subjected to spectral analysis, which showed considerable, significant amplitudes for QBO (Quasi-biennial, 2-3 years) and QTO (Quasi-triennial, 3-4 years) oscillations, with a total range of 20-30 DU. When subtracted from the original values, a fairly smooth variation was seen, with a decrease from ~260 DU in 1986 to ~230 DU in 1996 (~12% decrease in 12-month running means), and an almost steady level thereafter. Thus, the net ozone variation at South Pole consists of two parts, (i) a long-term monotonically downward trend upto 1996 and a steady level thereafter and (ii) a superposed QBO-QTO oscillation. The chemical destruction effect is not likely to disappear soon, and may even increase if greenhouse effects, major volcanic eruptions or enhanced stratospheric cooling intervene. If the long-term level (i) remains steady, an extrapolation of the QBO-QTO patterns indicates that the ozone level is due for an increase from about 1999 end to about 2001 beginning. The purpose of the present analysis is to point out that, if such an increase of 20-30 DU occurs, it should not be misinterpreted as due to a decrease in chemical destruction, which scientists are eagerly awaiting due to the indication of a reduction in the halogen load in recent years due to adherence to the Montreal Protocol. After one or two years (in 2002), the extrapolated QBO-QTO oscillation may bring down the ozone level back again to the 1999 end level, and the apparent recovery may turn out to be a false signal.

Trends of Studies on Controlled Halogenated Gases under International Conventions during 1999–2018 Using Bibliometric Analysis: A Global Perspective

A lot of research on international convention-controlled halogenated gases (CHGs) has been carried out. However, few bibliometric analyses and literature reviews exist in this field. Based on 734 articles extracted from the Science Citation Index (SCI) Expanded database of the Web of Science, we provided the visualisation for the performance of contributors and trends in research content by using VOSviewer and Science of Science (Sci2). The results showed that the United States was the most productive country, followed by the United Kingdom and China. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration had the largest number of publications, followed by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) and the University of Bristol. In terms of disciplines, environmental science and meteorological and atmospheric science have contributed the most. By using cluster analysis of all keywords, four key research topics of CHGs were identified and reviewed: (1) emissions calculation, (2) physicochemical analysis of halocarbons, (3) evaluation of replacements, and (4) environmental impact. The change in research substances is closely related to the phase-out schedule of the Montreal Protocol. In terms of environmental impact, global warming has always been the most important research hotspot, whereas research on ozone-depleting substances and biological toxicity shows a gradually rising trend.

Stronger Arctic amplification from ozone-depleting substances than from carbon dioxide

Arctic amplification (AA) - the greater warming of the Arctic near-surface temperature relative to its global mean value - is a prominent feature of the climate response to increasing greenhouse gases. Recent work has revealed the importance of ozone-depleting substances (ODS) in contributing to Arctic warming and sea-ice loss. Here, using ensembles of climate model integrations, we expand on that work and directly contrast Arctic warming from ODS to that from carbon dioxide (CO$_2$), over the 1955-2005 period when ODS loading peaked. We find that the Arctic warming and sea-ice loss from ODS are slightly more than half (52-59\%) those from CO$_2$. We further show that the strength of AA for ODS is 1.44 times larger than that for CO$_2$, and that this mainly stems from more positive Planck, albedo, lapse-rate, and cloud feedbacks. Our results suggest that AA would be considerably stronger than presently observed had the Montreal Protocol not been signed.

Projections of hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) emissions and the resulting global warming based on recent trends in observed abundances and current policies

The emissions of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) have increased significantly in the past two decades, primarily as a result of the phaseout of ozone depleting substances under the Montreal Protocol and the use of HFCs as their replacements. Projections from 2015 showed large increases in HFC use and emissions in this century in the absence of regulations, contributing up to 0.5 °C to global surface warming by 2100. In 2019, the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol came into force with the goal of limiting the use of HFCs globally, and currently, regulations to limit the use of HFCs are in effect in several countries. Here, we analyze trends in HFC emissions inferred from observations of atmospheric abundances and compare them with previous projections. Total CO2-eq inferred HFC emissions continue to increase through 2019 (to about 0.8 GtCO2-eq yr−1) but are about 20 % lower than previously projected for 2017–2019, mainly because of lower global emissions of HFC-143a. This indicates that HFCs are used much less in industrial and commercial refrigeration (ICR) applications than previously projected. This is supported by data reported by the developed countries and lower reported consumption of HFC-143a in China. Because this time-period preceded the beginning of the Kigali controls, this reduction cannot be linked directly to the provisions of the Kigali Amendment. However, it could indicate that companies transitioned away from the HFC-143a with its high global warming potential (GWP) for ICR applications, in anticipation of national or global mandates. A new HFC scenario is developed based on current trends in HFC use and current policies in several countries. These current policies reduce projected emissions in 2050 from the previously calculated 4.0–5.3 GtCO2-eq yr−1 to 1.9–3.6 GtCO2-eq yr−1. The provisions of the Kigali Amendment are projected to reduce the emissions further to 0.9–1.0 GtCO2-eq yr−1 in 2050. Without current policies, HFCs would be projected to contribute 0.28–0.44 °C to the global surface warming in 2100, compared to 0.14–0.31 °C with current policies, but without the Kigali Amendment. In contrast, the Kigali Amendment controls are expected to limit surface warming from HFCs to about 0.04 °C in 2100.

Global total ozone recovery trends derived from five merged ozone datasets

We report on updated trends using different merged zonal mean total ozone datasets from satellite and ground-based observations for the period from 1979 to 2020. This work is an update from the trends reported in Weber et al. (2018) using the same datasets up to 2016. Merged datasets used in this study include NASA MOD v8.7 and NOAA Cohesive Data (COH) v8.6, both based on data from the series of Solar Backscatter UltraViolet (SBUV), SBUV-2, and Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite (OMPS) satellite instruments (1978–present) as well as the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment (GOME)-type Total Ozone (GTO-ECV) and GOME-SCIAMACHY-GOME-2 (GSG) merged datasets (both 1995–present), mainly comprising satellite data from GOME, SCIAMACHY, OMI, GOME-2A, -2B, and TROPOMI. The fifth dataset consists of the annual mean zonal mean data from ground-based measurements collected at the World Ozone and UV Radiation Data Center (WOUDC). Trends were determined by applying a multiple linear regression (MLR) to annual mean zonal mean data. The addition of four more years consolidated the fact that total ozone is indeed on slowly recovering in both hemispheres as a result of phasing out ozone depleting substances (ODS) as mandated by the Montreal Protocol. The near global ozone trend of the median of all datasets after 1996 was 0.5 ± 0.2 (2σ) %/decade, which is in absolute numbers roughly a third of the decreasing rate of 1.4 ± 0.6 %/decade from 1978 until 1996. The ratio of decline and increase is nearly identical to that of the EESC (equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine or stratospheric halogen) change rates before and after 1996 which confirms the success of the Montreal Protocol. The observed trends are also in very good agreement with the median of 17 chemistry climate models from CCMI (Chemistry Climate Model Initiative) with current ODS and GHG (greenhouse gas) scenarios. The positive ODS related trends in the NH after 1996 are only obtained with a sufficient number of terms in the MLR accounting properly for dynamical ozone changes (Brewer-Dobson circulation, AO, AAO). A standard MLR (limited to solar, QBO, volcanic, and ENSO) leads to zero trends showing that the small positive ODS related trends have been balanced by negative trend contributions from atmospheric dynamics resulting in nearly constant total ozone levels since 2000.

Climate Change: International Legal Regulation Development

The paper is devoted to the development of international legal regulation in the field of combating climate change. Over the years, states, in the face of scientific uncertainty, have been trying to find ways to keep global warming at 1.5 °C by establishing international commitments of various configurations.When cooperating in the fight against climate change, additional substantive discussions arise, related, for example, to the implementation of international trade measures or the provision of human rights. However, the main direction remains the one covered by the context of sustainable development, ESG principles for business, government and society, strategies for energy policies of states, cooperation in adaptation and assistance to developing countries.Approaches to the international legal regulation of cooperation in the field of combating climate change began to form when the international community started to pay much attention to the international legal protection of atmospheric air and the protection of the ozone layer. As early as the preamble to the 1987 Montreal Protocol, the emphasis was placed on the potential climate impact of ozone-depleting substance emissions.The international legal regime established by the 1992 UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, in fact, outlined guidelines for finding optimal forms of cooperation, taking into account changes not only in the state of the environment, but also in the economic agenda. The Conference of the Parties has been identified as the key institutional platform for cooperation. Currently in conjunction with the 1992 Framework Convention and the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement the Conference of the Parties provides the conditions for their implementation.

A Putatively New Family of Alphaproteobacterial Chloromethane Degraders from a Deciduous Forest Soil Revealed by Stable Isotope Probing and Metagenomics

Background: Chloromethane (CH3 Cl) is the most abundant halogenated organic compound in the atmosphere and substantially responsible for the destruction of the stratospheric ozone layer. Since anthropogenic CH 3 Cl sources have become negligible with the application of the Montreal Protocol (1987), natural sources, such as vegetation and soils, have increased proportionally in the global budget. CH3 Cl-degrading methylotrophs occurring in soils might be an important and overlooked sink.Results & Conclusions: The objective of our study was to link the biotic CH3 Cl sink with the identity of active microorganisms and their biochemical pathways for CH3 Cl degradation in a deciduous forest soil. When tested in laboratory microcosms, biological CH3 Cl consumption occurred in leaf litter, senescent leaves, and organic and mineral soil horizons. Highest consumption rates, around 2 mmol CH3 Cl g -1 dry weight h -1 , were measured in organic soil and senescent leaves, suggesting that top soil layers are active (micro-)biological CH 3 Cl degradation compartments of forest ecosystems. The DNA of these [13C]-CH3 Cl-degrading microbial communities was labelled using stable isotope probing (SIP), and the corresponding taxa and their metabolic pathways studied using high-throughput metagenomics sequencing analysis. [ 13C]-labelled Metagenome-Assembled Genome closely related to the family Beijerinckiaceae may represent a new methylotroph family of Alphaproteobacteria, which is found in metagenome databases of forest soils samples worldwide. Gene markers of the only known pathway for aerobic CH3 Cl degradation, via the methyltransferase system encoded by the CH3 Cl utilisation genes (cmu), were undetected in the DNA-SIP metagenome data, suggesting that biological CH3 Cl sink in this deciduous forest soil operates by a cmu-independent metabolism.

Rapid increase in dichloromethane emissions from China inferred through atmospheric observations

With the successful implementation of the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer, the atmospheric abundance of ozone-depleting substances continues to decrease slowly and the Antarctic ozone hole is showing signs of recovery. However, growing emissions of unregulated short-lived anthropogenic chlorocarbons are offsetting some of these gains. Here, we report an increase in emissions from China of the industrially produced chlorocarbon, dichloromethane (CH2Cl2). The emissions grew from 231 (213–245) Gg yr−1 in 2011 to 628 (599–658) Gg yr−1 in 2019, with an average annual increase of 13 (12–15) %, primarily from eastern China. The overall increase in CH2Cl2 emissions from China has the same magnitude as the global emission rise of 354 (281−427) Gg yr−1 over the same period. If global CH2Cl2 emissions remain at 2019 levels, they could lead to a delay in Antarctic ozone recovery of around 5 years compared to a scenario with no CH2Cl2 emissions.

Biofumigation for the Control of Vegetables Soilborne Pathogens in Some non-Temperate Climate Countries

Soil-borne pathogens (SBPs) significantly reduce the yield and quality of crops worldwide. In the past, their control was principally accomplished by using soil fumigants such as methyl bromide (MB). However, this fumigant which is a powerful ozone-depleting substance, has completely been phased out under the Montreal Protocol (MP). New chemicals and non-chemical alternatives to MB, including biofumigation, have been actively researched, developed, and commercially adopted worldwide. This review seeks to provide the status of biofumigation for the control of SBPs in some non-temperate climate zones referred to in this paper as Article 5 countries or developing countries according to the Montreal Protocol (MP) classification. The review will first define “the non-temperate climate zone,” list the countries belonging to this zone, focus on the role and importance of the MP in phasing-out MB, and in searching and commercially adopting alternatives including biofumigation to this fumigant. It also describes the biofumigation techniques reported and used, reports its efficacy/inefficacy to manage SBPs in some non-climate temperate countries, insists on the place it must have in an IPM program to increase its efficacy, and finally, lists the collaboration and the research needed to further develop and commercially adopt this technology in non-temperate climate countries.

Impacts of Environmental Agreements on Bilateral Trade of Climate Industry

We investigated the effect of agreements related to climate change on bilateral trade, using the Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood (PPML) estimator on a large dataset that requires computing high-dimensional fixed effects. This study develops the concordance between commodities based on harmonized systems (HS) and technologies defined by both international and cooperative patent classifications (IPC/CPC). Using the OECD ENV-TECH classification, covering 169 exporting countries and 179 importing countries worldwide from 1991 to 2019, we determined the relationship between HS commodities and IPC/CPC climate change technologies. The main findings show that, first, the Kyoto Protocol has increased international bilateral trade in the climate change industry, while the Montreal Protocol has led to the opposite effect. In addition, the impact of environmental stringency on international bilateral trade in climate-related industries was negative and significant, refuting the Porter Hypothesis. This result was consistent within the trade between the convention countries. Therefore, national and industrial perspectives are relative, and voluntary climate mitigation methods should be applied, considering the areas where carbon reduction is relatively difficult. In other words, the conventions and policies must shift to a global paradigm in environmental protection and a more inclusive approach, with recognition of diversity in governance types.