SynopsisThis paper considers market fundamentals rather than privatisation, which is largely about organisation. During the last ten years there has been significant growth in the size of the world's remaining proven gas reserves. The proven reserve production ratio has been growing and is now sixty years. Beyond proven reserves there are reserves in the “probable” and “possible” categories. Within Western Europe, gas reserves are principally located in Norway, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom. Additional reserves are accessible to Western Europe. For the United Kingdom, gas supplies are probably ample in the short to medium term. In the longer term there is likely to be a need for imports but there are various potential suppliers. At the Church House debate in 1976 many were obsessed with “energy gaps”; today's conventional wisdom is “market forces”. Energy forecasts have proved inaccurate, but gas demand has been fairly close to projections. Over the last ten years the role of gas in energy markets has been growing, such that gas is now the major fuel in non-transport energy demand. Gas now dominates the domestic market for energy in Britain. Growth in customers continues in Scotland and the rest of Britain. Nevertheless, there is fierce competition in the domestic market with millions of decisions taken on acquiring and replacing appliances each year. The growing role of gas in Scottish and British industrial and commercial markets is discussed, with faster growth overall in demand in Scotland than Britain as a whole. The recession has had its effect but gas suffered less than some other fuels. Growth in gas demand from industry has resumed. Great emphasis is placed upon improving the efficiency of gas use. Used wisely, an availability of gas is foreseen on a long term basis.
Risk identification of residential energy demand: the case studies of Australia, Chile, the United Kingdom and the United States
