A study on the impact of asymmetric components around tropical cyclone center on the accuracy of bogus data and the track forecast

1995 ◽  
Vol 56 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 125-134 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Ueno
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Track Forecast ◽  
Cyclone Center ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Center

Tropical Cyclone Center and Symmetric Structure Estimating from SMAP Data

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-1
Author(s):  
Guosheng Zhang ◽  
Chao Xu ◽  
Xiaofeng Li ◽  
Ziqiang Zhu ◽  
William Perrie
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Cyclone Center ◽  
Symmetric Structure ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Center

scholarly journals Impact of Gulfstream-IV Dropsondes on Tropical Cyclone Prediction in a Regional OSSE System

2019 ◽  
Vol 147 (8) ◽  
pp. 2961-2977 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kelly Ryan ◽  
Lisa Bucci ◽  
Javier Delgado ◽  
Robert Atlas ◽  
Shirley Murillo
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Environmental Conditions ◽  
The United States ◽  
Track Forecast ◽  
Deterministic Models ◽  
Research Division ◽  
Sensitivity Studies ◽  
Potential Impact ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Aircraft reconnaissance missions remain the primary means of collecting direct measurements of marine atmospheric conditions affecting tropical cyclone formation and evolution. The National Hurricane Center tasks the NOAA G-IV aircraft to sample environmental conditions that may impact the development of a tropical cyclone threatening to make landfall in the United States or its territories. These aircraft data are assimilated into deterministic models and used to produce real-time analyses and forecasts for a given tropical cyclone. Existing targeting techniques aim to optimize the use of reconnaissance observations and partially rely on regions of highest uncertainty in the Global Ensemble Forecast System. Evaluating the potential impact of various trade-offs in the targeting process is valuable for determining the ideal aircraft flight track for a prospective mission. AOML’s Hurricane Research Division has developed a system for performing regional observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) to assess the potential impact of proposed observing systems on hurricane track and intensity forecasting. This study focuses on improving existing targeting methods by investigating the impact of proposed aircraft observing system designs through various sensitivity studies. G-IV dropsonde retrievals were simulated from a regional nature run, covering the life cycle of a rapidly intensifying Atlantic hurricane. Results from sensitivity studies provide insight into improvements for real-time operational synoptic surveillance targeting for hurricanes and tropical storms, where dropsondes released closer to the vortex–environment interface provide the largest impact on the track forecast. All dropsonde configurations provide a positive 2-day impact on intensity forecasts by improving the environmental conditions known to impact tropical cyclone intensity.

scholarly journals The Impact of Dropwindsonde Data on Typhoon Track Forecasts in DOTSTAR

2007 ◽  
Vol 22 (6) ◽  
pp. 1157-1176 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chun-Chieh Wu ◽  
Kun-Hsuan Chou ◽  
Po-Hsiung Lin ◽  
Sim D. Aberson ◽  
Melinda S. Peng ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Error Reduction ◽  
Track Forecast ◽  
Cyclone Track ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Track ◽  
Global Spectral Model ◽  
Track Error ◽  
Typhoon Track ◽  
The Mean ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Starting from 2003, a new typhoon surveillance program, Dropwindsonde Observations for Typhoon Surveillance near the Taiwan Region (DOTSTAR), was launched. During 2004, 10 missions for eight typhoons were conducted successfully with 155 dropwindsondes deployed. In this study, the impact of these dropwindsonde data on tropical cyclone track forecasts has been evaluated with five models (four operational and one research models). All models, except the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) hurricane model, show the positive impact that the dropwindsonde data have on tropical cyclone track forecasts. During the first 72 h, the mean track error reductions in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction’s (NCEP) Global Forecast System (GFS), the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) of the Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center (FNMOC), and the Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA) Global Spectral Model (GSM) are 14%, 14%, and 19%, respectively. The track error reduction in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, in which the initial conditions are directly interpolated from the operational GFS forecast, is 16%. However, the mean track improvement in the GFDL model is a statistically insignificant 3%. The 72-h-average track error reduction from the ensemble mean of the above three global models is 22%, which is consistent with the track forecast improvement in Atlantic tropical cyclones from surveillance missions. In all, despite the fact that the impact of the dropwindsonde data is not statistically significant due to the limited number of DOTSTAR cases in 2004, the overall added value of the dropwindsonde data in improving typhoon track forecasts over the western North Pacific is encouraging. Further progress in the targeted observations of the dropwindsonde surveillances and satellite data, and in the modeling and data assimilation system, is expected to lead to even greater improvement in tropical cyclone track forecasts.

scholarly journals Experimental Tropical Cyclone Forecasts Using a Variable-Resolution Global Model

2015 ◽  
Vol 143 (10) ◽  
pp. 4012-4037 ◽  
Author(s):  
Colin M. Zarzycki ◽  
Christiane Jablonowski
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
Hurricane Sandy ◽  
Track Forecast ◽  
Time Step ◽  
Variable Resolution ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Tropical cyclone (TC) forecasts at 14-km horizontal resolution (0.125°) are completed using variable-resolution (V-R) grids within the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM). Forecasts are integrated twice daily from 1 August to 31 October for both 2012 and 2013, with a high-resolution nest centered over the North Atlantic and eastern Pacific Ocean basins. Using the CAM version 5 (CAM5) physical parameterization package, regional refinement is shown to significantly increase TC track forecast skill relative to unrefined grids (55 km, 0.5°). For typical TC forecast integration periods (approximately 1 week), V-R forecasts are able to nearly identically reproduce the flow field of a globally uniform high-resolution forecast. Simulated intensity is generally too strong for forecasts beyond 72 h. This intensity bias is robust regardless of whether the forecast is forced with observed or climatological sea surface temperatures and is not significantly mitigated in a suite of sensitivity simulations aimed at investigating the impact of model time step and CAM’s deep convection parameterization. Replacing components of the default physics with Cloud Layers Unified by Binormals (CLUBB) produces a statistically significant improvement in forecast intensity at longer lead times, although significant structural differences in forecasted TCs exist. CAM forecasts the recurvature of Hurricane Sandy into the northeastern United States 60 h earlier than the Global Forecast System (GFS) model using identical initial conditions, demonstrating the sensitivity of TC forecasts to model configuration. Computational costs associated with V-R simulations are dramatically decreased relative to globally uniform high-resolution simulations, demonstrating that variable-resolution techniques are a promising tool for future numerical weather prediction applications.

Tropical Cyclone Center Automatic Determination Model Based on HY-2 and QuikSCAT Wind Vector Products

2019 ◽  
Vol 57 (2) ◽  
pp. 709-721 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tangao Hu ◽  
Yiyue Wu ◽  
Gang Zheng ◽  
Dengrong Zhang ◽  
Yuzhou Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Wind Vector ◽  
Automatic Determination ◽  
Cyclone Center ◽  
Model Based ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Center
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