Long-term interest rates, interest-rate structure and the budget deficit

1993 ◽  
Vol 30 (8) ◽  
pp. 1-4 ◽  
Author(s):  
Heiner Flassbeck
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Rate Structure

Determinants of Inflation in Vietnam: A VECM Approach

2015 ◽  
Vol 22 (04) ◽  
pp. 26-50
Author(s):  
Ngoc Tran Thi Bich ◽  
Huong Pham Hoang Cam
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
Domestic Credit ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

This paper aims to examine the main determinants of inflation in Vietnam during the period from 2002Q1 to 2013Q2. The cointegration theory and the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) approach are used to examine the impact of domestic credit, interest rate, budget deficit, and crude oil prices on inflation in both long and short terms. The results show that while there are long-term relations among inflation and the others, such factors as oil prices, domestic credit, and interest rate, in the short run, have no impact on fluctuations of inflation. Particularly, the budget deficit itself actually has a short-run impact, but its level is fundamentally weak. The cause of the current inflation is mainly due to public's expectations of the inflation in the last period. Although the error correction, from the long-run relationship, has affected inflation in the short run, the coefficient is small and insignificant. In other words, it means that the speed of the adjustment is very low or near zero. This also implies that once the relationship among inflation, domestic credit, interest rate, budget deficit, and crude oil prices deviate from the long-term trend, it will take the economy a lot of time to return to the equilibrium state.

scholarly journals CANDIDE et la monnaie

2009 ◽  
Vol 52 (1) ◽  
pp. 75-103
Author(s):  
Jean-Pierre Aubry ◽  
Pierre Duguay
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Term Structure ◽  
Structural Equations ◽  
Reduced Form ◽  
Real Sector ◽  
Short Term ◽  
The Real ◽  
Structure Equations

Abstract In this paper we deal with the financial sector of CANDIDE 1.1. We are concerned with the determination of the short-term interest rate, the term structure equations, and the channels through which monetary policy influences the real sector. The short-term rate is determined by a straightforward application of Keynesian liquidity preference theory. A serious problem arises from the directly estimated reduced form equation, which implies that the demand for high powered money, but not the demand for actual deposits, is a stable function of income and interest rates. The structural equations imply the opposite. In the term structure equations, allowance is made for the smaller variance of the long-term rates, but insufficient explanation is given for their sharper upward trend. This leads to an overstatement of the significance of the U.S. long-term rate that must perform the explanatory role. Moreover a strong structural hierarchy, by which the long Canada rate wags the industrial rate, is imposed without prior testing. In CANDIDE two channels of monetary influence are recognized: the costs of capital and the availability of credit. They affect the business fixed investment and housing sectors. The potential of the personal consumption sector is not recognized, the wealth and real balance effects are bypassed, the credit availability proxy is incorrect, the interest rate used in the real sector is nominal rather than real, and the specification of the housing sector is dubious.

scholarly journals Forecasting, Reporting, And Coping With Systematic Risk

2011 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 24
Author(s):  
Gail E. Farrelly ◽  
Marion G. Sobol
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Systematic Risk ◽  
Fortune 500 ◽  
Corporate Executives ◽  
Systematic Risk Factors ◽  
And Coping

A sample of 123 corporate executives, from the Fortune 500 Industrial Corporations list, evaluate nine common systematic risk factors such as rate of inflation, long-term interest rates, level of money supply, price of crude oil, etc. Executives indicate their views on the significance of these risk factors as well as their ability to cope with, and report on, these factors. Future interest rate changes and inflation rate changes are considered to be the most significant risks. There is a high negative correlation between the significance of particular risks and the ability to cope with these risks.

scholarly journals The Unpleasant Arithmetic of the Taylor Rule

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. p89
Author(s):  
Alejandro Rodriguez-Arana
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Phillips Curve ◽  
Taylor Rule ◽  
Independent Component ◽  
Elasticity Of Substitution ◽  
Interest Rate Rule

This paper analyzes the effect of a monetary policy that raises the reference interest rate in order to reduce inflation in a situation where the fiscal policy parameters remain constant. In an overlapping generation’s model and in the presence of an accelerationist Phillips curve and a Taylor rule of interest rates, it is observed that increasing the independent component of said rule leads to a solution that at least in a large number of cases is unstable. In the case where the elasticity of substitution is greater than one, inflation falls temporarily, but then it can increase in an unstable manner. One way to achieve stability is to establish an interest rate rule where Taylor’s principle is not met. However, in this case many times the increase in the independent component of this rule will generate greater long-term inflation.

Asset-Liability Management

2019 ◽  
pp. 75-95
Author(s):  
Hyun Song Shin
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Pension Funds ◽  
Fixed Income ◽  
Asset Liability Management ◽  
Life Insurers ◽  
Liability Management ◽  
Demand Curves

Life insurers and pension funds have obligations to policy holders and beneficiaries and hold fixed income assets to meet those obligations. Asset-liability management matches the duration of assets to duration of liabilities to minimise risks from interest rate changes. However, this rule can lead to upward sloping demand curves for fixed income assets and can lead to overshooting of long-term interest rates.

How loan interest rate liberalization affects firms’ loan maturity structure

2014 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 153-167 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jianfang Zhou ◽  
Jingjing Wang ◽  
Jianping Ding
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Manufacturing Companies ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Interest Rate Liberalization ◽  
Upper Limit ◽  
Maturity Structure

Purpose – After loan interest rate upper limit deregulation in October 2004, the financing environment in China changed dramatically, and the banks were eligible for risk compensation. The purpose of this paper is to focus on the influence of the loan interest rate liberalization on firms’ loan maturity structure. Design/methodology/approach – Based on Rajan's (1992) model, the authors constructed a trade-off model of how the banks choose long-term and short-term loans scales, and further analyzed banks’ loan term decisions under the loan interest rate upper limit deregulation or collateral cases. Then the authors used an unbalanced panel data set of 586 Chinese listed manufacturing companies and 9,376 observations during the period 1996-2011 to testify the theoretical conclusion. Furthermore, the authors studied the effect on firms with different characteristics of ownership or scale. Findings – The results show that the loan interest rate liberalization significantly decreases the private companies’ reliance on short-term loans and increases sensitivity to interest rates of state-owned companies’ long-term loans. But the results also show that the companies’ ownership still plays a key role on the long-term loans availability. When monetary policy tightened, small companies still have to borrow short-term loans for long-term purposes. As the bank industry is still dominated by state-owned banks and the deposit interest rate has upper limits, the effect of the loan interest rate liberalization on easing long-term credit constraints is limited. Originality/value – From a new perspective, the content and findings of this paper contribute to the study of the effect of the interest rate liberalization on China economy.

Greenspan's Conundrum and Bernanke's Nightmare

2017 ◽  
pp. 1-23
Author(s):  
Francis E. Warnock
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
International Finance ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Major Step ◽  
Treasury Bonds ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
The U.S

At what point in the tepid recovery from the global financial crisis should the Fed take a major step in normalizing U.S. monetary policy by greatly reducing its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds? Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke faced this question in Spring 2012, even as he was concerned that the U.S. economy was on weaker footing than many believed. Suitable for both core and elective MBA courses in global financial markets and international finance, this case examines the risks associated with a policy some would consider monetizing the budget deficit. Students consider the factors behind the current and prospective levels of U.S. long-term interest rates from Bernanke's perspective.

scholarly journals The term structure of interest rates and inflation forecast targeting

2011 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 162-179
Author(s):  
Eric Schaling ◽  
Willem Verhagen ◽  
Sylvester Eiffinger
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Term Structure ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Nominal Interest Rate ◽  
Term Spread ◽  
State Of The Economy ◽  
Output Persistence

This paper examines the implications of the expectations theory of the term structure of interest rates for the implementation of inflation targeting. We show that the responsiveness of the central bank’s instrument to the underlying state of the economy is increasing in the duration of the long-term bond.  On the other hand, an increase in duration will make long-term inflationary expectations - and therefore also the long-term nominal interest rate - less responsive to the state of the economy. The extent to which the central bank is concerned with output stabilisation will exert a moderating influence on the central bank’s response to leading indicators of future inflation. However, the effect of an increase in this parameter on the long-term nominal interest rate turns out to be ambiguous. Next, we show that both the sensitivity of the nominal term spread to economic fundamentals and the extent to which the spread predicts future output, are increasing in the duration of the long bond and the degree of structural output persistence. However, if the central bank becomes relatively less concerned about inflation stabilisation the term spread will be less successful in predicting real economic activity.

2016 Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust - Review of Interest Rate Structure

Policy Papers ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 2016 (50) ◽  
Author(s):  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Poverty Reduction ◽  
Low Income Countries ◽  
Credit Facility ◽  
Rate Structure ◽  
Low Interest Rates ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
Rate Mechanism

This paper reviews the interest rate structure that would apply to the PRGT in 2017–18. Based on the interest rate setting mechanism agreed in 2009, the interest rate for the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) would be zero and the rate for the Standby Credit Facility (SCF) would be 0.25 percent. The interest rate for the Rapid Credit Facility (RCF) was set permanently at zero in July 2015. Since the current mechanism was agreed, the Executive Board has granted successive exceptional interest waivers on all outstanding Fund concessional credit, setting all interest rates charged at zero percent. These waivers have been extended three times, providing interest rate relief to many low-income countries at a time when they faced considerable headwinds from the global economic environment. A strong case remains for maintaining zero rates on Fund concessional credit at the current global economic juncture. The global outlook for LICs has not significantly improved since the last review and downside risks remain significant. At the same time, many Directors noted at the last review in 2014 that the possibility of a prolonged period of very low interest rates warrants an early re-examination of the mechanism, including an exit strategy from repeated application of the waiver, with the objective of safeguarding the self-sustaining capacity of the PRGT. The paper seeks to respond to this call. It proposes that the PRGT interest rate mechanism be amended to accommodate anomalies created by a prolonged period of very low interest rates. Specifically, a new threshold is proposed whereby both the ECF and the SCF rate would be set at zero when the 12-month average SDR rate is less than or equal to 0.75 percent. This proposal will likely keep all PRGT interest rates under the mechanism at zero through at least 2020 given current market expectations while incurring only minimal subsidy costs and eliminating the need for continual waivers. In addition, staff proposes to waive interest rate charges on outstanding legacy balances under the Exogenous Shocks Facility (ESF), which are not determined via the interest rate mechanism, until the next review.

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