On the Second-Year Warming in Late 2019 over the Tropical Pacific and Its Attribution to an Indian Ocean Dipole Event

2021 ◽  
Vol 38 (12) ◽  
pp. 2153-2166
Author(s):  
Licheng Feng ◽  
Fei Liu ◽  
Rong-Hua Zhang ◽  
Xue Han ◽  
Bo Yu ◽  
...  
2021 ◽  
pp. 1-39
Author(s):  
Lei Zhang ◽  
Weiqing Han ◽  
Zeng-Zhen Hu

AbstractAn unprecedented extreme positive Indian Ocean Dipole event (pIOD) occurred in 2019, which has caused widespread disastrous impacts on countries bordering the Indian Ocean, including the East African floods and vast bushfires in Australia. Here we investigate the causes for the 2019 pIOD by analyzing multiple observational datasets and performing numerical model experiments. We find that the 2019 pIOD is triggered in May by easterly wind bursts over the tropical Indian Ocean associated with the dry phase of the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation, and sustained by the local atmosphere-ocean interaction thereafter. During September-November, warm sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) in the central-western tropical Pacific further enhance the Indian Ocean’s easterly winds, bringing the pIOD to an extreme magnitude. The central-western tropical Pacific warm SSTA is strengthened by two consecutive Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) events that originate from the tropical Indian Ocean. Our results highlight the important roles of cross-basin and cross-timescale interactions in generating extreme IOD events. The lack of accurate representation of these interactions may be the root for a short lead time in predicting this extreme pIOD with a state-of-the-art climate forecast model.


2011 ◽  
Vol 24 (14) ◽  
pp. 3593-3608 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dongliang Yuan ◽  
Jing Wang ◽  
Tengfei Xu ◽  
Peng Xu ◽  
Zhou Hui ◽  
...  

Abstract Controlled numerical experiments using ocean-only and ocean–atmosphere coupled general circulation models show that interannual sea level depression in the eastern Indian Ocean during the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) events forces enhanced Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) to transport warm water from the upper-equatorial Pacific Ocean to the Indian Ocean. The enhanced transport produces elevation of the thermocline and cold subsurface temperature anomalies in the western equatorial Pacific Ocean, which propagate to the eastern equatorial Pacific to induce significant coupled evolution of the tropical Pacific oceanic and atmospheric circulation. Analyses suggest that the IOD-forced ITF transport anomalies are about the same amplitudes as those induced by the Pacific ENSO. Results of the coupled model experiments suggest that the anomalies induced by the IOD persist in the equatorial Pacific until the year following the IOD event, suggesting the importance of the oceanic channel in modulating the interannual climate variations of the tropical Pacific Ocean at the time lag beyond one year.


2020 ◽  
pp. 1-50
Author(s):  
Lei Zhang ◽  
Gang Wang ◽  
Matthew Newman ◽  
Weiqing Han

AbstractThe Indian Ocean has received increasing attention for its large impacts on regional and global climate. However, sea surface temperature (SST) variability arising from Indian Ocean internal processes has not been well understood particularly on decadal and longer timescales, and the external influence from the Tropical Pacific has not been quantified. This paper analyzes the interannual-to-decadal SST variability in the Tropical Indian Ocean in observations and explores the external influence from the Pacific versus internal processes within the Indian Ocean using a Linear Inverse Model (LIM). Coupling between Indian Ocean and tropical Pacific SST anomalies (SSTAs) is assessed both within the LIM dynamical operator and the unpredictable stochastic noise that forces the system. Results show that the observed Indian Ocean Basin (IOB)-wide SSTA pattern is largely a response to the Pacific ENSO forcing, although it in turn has a damping effect on ENSO especially on annual and decadal timescales. On the other hand, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is an Indian Ocean internal mode that can actively affect ENSO; ENSO also has a returning effect on the IOD, which is rather weak on decadal timescale. The third mode is partly associated with the Subtropical Indian Ocean Dipole (SIOD), and it is primarily generated by Indian Ocean internal processes, although a small component of it is coupled with ENSO. Overall, the amplitude of Indian Ocean internally generated SST variability is comparable to that forced by ENSO, and the Indian Ocean tends to actively influence the tropical Pacific. These results suggest that the Indian-Pacific Ocean interaction is a two-way process.


2021 ◽  
pp. 1-46
Author(s):  
Lei Zhang ◽  
Weiqing Han ◽  
Gerald A. Meehl ◽  
Aixue Hu ◽  
Nan Rosenbloom ◽  
...  

AbstractUnderstanding the impact of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) on El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is important for climate prediction. By analyzing observational data and performing Indian and Pacific Ocean pacemaker experiments using a state-of-the-art climate model, we find that a positive IOD (pIOD) can favor both cold and warm sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) in the tropical Pacific, in contrast to the previously identified pIOD-El Niño connection. The diverse impacts of the pIOD on ENSO are related to SSTA in the Seychelles-Chagos thermocline ridge (SCTR; 60°E-85°E and 7°S-15°S) as part of the warm pole of the pIOD. Specifically, a pIOD with SCTR warming can cause warm SSTA in the southeast Indian Ocean, which induces La Niña-like conditions in the tropical Pacific through interbasin interaction processes associated with a recently identified climate phenomenon dubbed the “Warm Pool Dipole”. This study identifies a new pIOD-ENSO relationship and examines the associated mechanisms.


2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Wei Shi ◽  
Menghua Wang

AbstractThe 2019 positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event in the boreal autumn was the most serious IOD event of the century with reports of significant sea surface temperature (SST) changes in the east and west equatorial Indian Ocean. Observations of the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) onboard the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (SNPP) between 2012 and 2020 are used to study the significant biological dipole response that occurred in the equatorial Indian Ocean following the 2019 positive IOD event. For the first time, we propose, identify, characterize, and quantify the biological IOD. The 2019 positive IOD event led to anomalous biological activity in both the east IOD zone and west IOD zone. The average chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) concentration reached over ~ 0.5 mg m−3 in 2019 in comparison to the climatology Chl-a of ~ 0.3 mg m−3 in the east IOD zone. In the west IOD zone, the biological activity was significantly depressed. The depressed Chl-a lasted until May 2020. The anomalous ocean biological activity in the east IOD zone was attributed to the advection of the higher-nutrient surface water due to enhanced upwelling. On the other hand, the dampened ocean biological activity in the west IOD zone was attributed to the stronger convergence of the surface waters than that in a normal year.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Belen Rodríguez de Fonseca ◽  
Veronica Martín-Gómez ◽  
Jose María Aliganga

<p>Interaction between the tropical Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian Ocean basins is increasingly recognized as a key factor in understanding climate variability on interannual to decadal timescales. Most of the studies deal with the connection between pair of basins and less attention has been paid to analyze the degree of collective interaction among the three tropical oceans and its variability along time.In this study, we consider a complex network perspective to analyze the collective connectivity among the three tropical basins. To do so, we first construct a climate network considering as network’ nodes the indices that represent the variability of the SST over the tropical Pacific, the tropical north Atlantic, the equatorial Atlantic and the tropical Indian Ocean. Then, we focus on detecting periods of maximum degree of collective connectivity (synchronization periods) using the mean network distance definition.Results show that the degree of collective connectivity among the three tropical oceans present a large muti-decadal variability and that during the observed period there were two synchronization periods: one developed over the period (1900-1935) and the other from 1975 to present. A period center in the 1950’s is characterized by being the three basins uncoupled .Using this information, an analysis of background conditions in the ocean and the atmosphere has been conducted in order to elucidate causes for this change in connectivity.</p>


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