Impacts of warm and cold situations in the Mediterranean basins on the West African monsoon: observed connection patterns (1979–2006) and climate simulations

An idealized vertical–meridional zonally symmetric model is developed in order to recover a July typical monsoon regime over West Africa in response to surface conditions. The model includes a parameterization to account for heat and momentum fluxes associated with eddies. The sensitivity of the simulated West African monsoon equilibrium regime to some major processes is explored. It allows confirmation of the important role played by the sun’s latitudinal position, the aerosols, the albedo, and the SST’s magnitude in the Gulf of Guinea and in the Mediterranean Sea. The important role of aerosols in warming the Saharan lower layers and their effect on the whole monsoon is underlined. Model results also stress the importance of the Mediterranean Sea, which is needed to obtain the extreme dryness of the Sahara. The use of this idealized model is finally discussed for studying the scale interactions and coupling involved in the West African monsoon as explored in a companion paper.

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Intraseasonal Variability of the Saharan Heat Low and Its Link with Midlatitudes

Journal of Climate ◽

10.1175/2010jcli3093.1 ◽

2010 ◽

Vol 23 (10) ◽

pp. 2544-2561 ◽

Cited By ~ 65

Author(s):

Fabrice Chauvin ◽

Romain Roehrig ◽

Jean-Philippe Lafore

Keyword(s):

North Africa ◽

Potential Temperature ◽

West African Monsoon ◽

West African ◽

Maximum Temperature ◽

Temperature Structure ◽

The West ◽

African Monsoon ◽

The Mediterranean ◽

Heat Low

Abstract The Saharan heat low (SHL) is thought to be a key feature of the West African monsoon, and its variations during the summer season have not yet been systematically assessed. To characterize the intraseasonal variations of the SHL, real and complex empirical orthogonal function analyses were applied to the 850-hPa potential temperature field over northern Africa and the Mediterranean, using NCEP–Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP-II) reanalysis results. A robust quasi-propagative mode was highlighted over North Africa and the Mediterranean. This mode consists of two phases. The west phase corresponds to a maximum temperature over the coast of Morocco–Mauritania, propagating southwestward, and a minimum between Libya and Sicily, propagating southeastward. The east phase corresponds to the opposite temperature structure, which propagates as in the west phase. A lag-composite analysis revealed that this SHL mode was preceded by large-scale, midlatitude, intraseasonal fluctuations of the atmosphere. The southward penetration of a Rossby wave disturbance over Europe and North Africa generates modulations of the three-dimensional atmospheric structure. The low-level ventilations and harmattan-like circulation are particularly impacted, as are the subtropical westerlies and the polar jets in the upper troposphere. The west phase is concomitant with an enhanced convective signal over the Darfur region, which propagates westward, as far as the middle of the Atlantic, at a speed similar to that of the well-known African easterly waves. The SHL appears to be a bridge between the midlatitudes and the West African monsoon, which may offer promising sources of predictability over the Sahel on an intraseasonal time scale.

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On What Scale Can We Predict the Agronomic Onset of the West African Monsoon?

Monthly Weather Review ◽

10.1175/mwr-d-15-0274.1 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 144 (4) ◽

pp. 1571-1589 ◽

Cited By ~ 6

Author(s):

Rory G. J. Fitzpatrick ◽

Caroline L. Bain ◽

Peter Knippertz ◽

John H. Marsham ◽

Douglas J. Parker

Keyword(s):

West Africa ◽

Noise Analysis ◽

West African Monsoon ◽

West African ◽

New Method ◽

The West ◽

African Monsoon ◽

Spatial Consistency ◽

Local Stakeholders ◽

Local Rainfall

Abstract Accurate prediction of the commencement of local rainfall over West Africa can provide vital information for local stakeholders and regional planners. However, in comparison with analysis of the regional onset of the West African monsoon, the spatial variability of the local monsoon onset has not been extensively explored. One of the main reasons behind the lack of local onset forecast analysis is the spatial noisiness of local rainfall. A new method that evaluates the spatial scale at which local onsets are coherent across West Africa is presented. This new method can be thought of as analogous to a regional signal against local noise analysis of onset. This method highlights regions where local onsets exhibit a quantifiable degree of spatial consistency (denoted local onset regions or LORs). It is found that local onsets exhibit a useful amount of spatial agreement, with LORs apparent across the entire studied domain; this is in contrast to previously found results. Identifying local onset regions and understanding their variability can provide important insight into the spatial limit of monsoon predictability. While local onset regions can be found over West Africa, their size is much smaller than the scale found for seasonal rainfall homogeneity. A potential use of local onset regions is presented that shows the link between the annual intertropical front progression and local agronomic onset.

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