Influence of local and remote SST on North Atlantic tropical cyclone potential intensity

Abstract The effects on early and late twenty-first-century North Atlantic tropical cyclone statistics resulting from imposing the patterns of maximum/minimum phases of the observed Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) onto projected sea surface temperatures (SSTs) from two climate models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) are examined using a 100-km resolution global atmospheric model. By imposing the observed maximum positive and negative phases of the AMO onto two CMIP5 SST projections from the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 scenario, this study places bounds on future North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity during the early (2020–39) and late (2080–99) twenty-first century. Averaging over both time periods and both AMO phases, the mean named tropical cyclones (NTCs) count increases by 35% when compared to simulations using observed SSTs from 1982 to 2009. The positive AMO simulations produce approximately a 68% increase in mean NTC count, while the negative AMO simulations are statistically indistinguishable from the mean NTC count determined from the 1995–2009 simulations—a period of observed positive AMO phase. Examination of the tropical cyclone track densities shows a statistically significant increase in the tracks along the East Coast of the United States in the future simulations compared to the models’ 1982–2009 climate simulations. The increase occurs regardless of AMO phase, although the negative phase produces higher track densities. The maximum wind speeds increase by 6%, in agreement with other climate change studies. Finally, the NTC-related precipitation is found to increase (approximately by 13%) compared to the 1982–2009 simulations.

Download Full-text

Persistent northward North Atlantic tropical cyclone track migration over the past five centuries

Scientific Reports ◽

10.1038/srep37522 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 6 (1) ◽

Cited By ~ 21

Author(s):

Lisa M. Baldini ◽

James U. L. Baldini ◽

Jim N. McElwaine ◽

Amy Benoit Frappier ◽

Yemane Asmerom ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Tropical Cyclone ◽

North Atlantic ◽

Cyclone Track ◽

Tropical Cyclone Track ◽

The Past ◽

Atlantic Tropical Cyclone

Download Full-text

Multiseason Lead Forecast of the North Atlantic Power Dissipation Index (PDI) and Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE)

Journal of Climate ◽

10.1175/jcli-d-12-00448.1 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 26 (11) ◽

pp. 3631-3643 ◽

Cited By ~ 22

Author(s):

Gabriele Villarini ◽

Gabriel A. Vecchi

Keyword(s):

Tropical Cyclone ◽

Tropical Cyclones ◽

North Atlantic ◽

Power Dissipation ◽

Skill Assessment ◽

Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory ◽

Storm Activity ◽

The North ◽

The North Atlantic ◽

Atlantic Tropical Cyclone

Abstract By considering the intensity, duration, and frequency of tropical cyclones, the power dissipation index (PDI) and accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) are concise metrics routinely used to assess tropical storm activity. This study focuses on the development of a hybrid statistical–dynamical seasonal forecasting system for the North Atlantic Ocean’s PDI and ACE over the period 1982–2011. The statistical model uses only tropical Atlantic and tropical mean sea surface temperatures (SSTs) to describe the variability exhibited by the observational record, reflecting the role of both local and nonlocal effects on the genesis and development of tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic basin. SSTs are predicted using a 10-member ensemble of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Climate Model, version 2.1 (GFDL CM2.1), an experimental dynamical seasonal-to-interannual prediction system. To assess prediction skill, a set of retrospective predictions is initialized for each month from November to April, over the years 1981–2011. The skill assessment indicates that it is possible to make skillful predictions of ACE and PDI starting from November of the previous year: skillful predictions of the seasonally integrated North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity for the coming season could be made even while the current one is still under way. Probabilistic predictions for the 2012 North Atlantic tropical cyclone season are presented.

Download Full-text