scholarly journals The effect of vertical ocean mixing on the tropical Atlantic in a coupled global climate model

2020 ◽  
Vol 54 (11-12) ◽  
pp. 5089-5109
Author(s):  
Anna-Lena Deppenmeier ◽  
Rein J. Haarsma ◽  
Philippe LeSager ◽  
Wilco Hazeleger
Keyword(s):  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Tropical Atlantic ◽  
Ocean Mixing ◽  
Coupled Global Climate Model

scholarly journals Decadal Prediction of the Sahelian Precipitation in CMIP5 Simulations

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (19) ◽  
pp. 7708-7719 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marco Gaetani ◽  
Elsa Mohino
Keyword(s):  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
System Model ◽  
Low Resolution ◽  
Coupled Models ◽  
Climate System Model ◽  
Model Version ◽  
Coupled Global Climate Model

Abstract In this study the capability of eight state-of-the-art ocean–atmosphere coupled models in predicting the monsoonal precipitation in the Sahel on a decadal time scale is assessed. To estimate the importance of the initialization, the predictive skills of two different CMIP5 experiments are compared, a set of 10 decadal hindcasts initialized every 5 years in the period 1961–2009 and the historical simulations in the period 1961–2005. Results indicate that predictive skills are highly model dependent: the Fourth Generation Canadian Coupled Global Climate Model (CanCM4), Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques Coupled Global Climate Model, version 5 (CNRM-CM5), and Max Planck Institute Earth System Model, low resolution (MPI-ESM-LR) models show improved skill in the decadal hindcasts, while the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate, version 5 (MIROC5) is skillful in both the decadal and historical experiments. The Beijing Climate Center, Climate System Model, version 1.1 (BCC-CSM1.1), Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 3 (HadCM3), L'Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace Coupled Model, version 5, coupled with NEMO, low resolution (IPSL-CM5A-LR), and Meteorological Research Institute Coupled Atmosphere–Ocean General Circulation Model, version 3 (MRI-CGCM3) models show insignificant or no skill in predicting the Sahelian precipitation. Skillful predictions are produced by models properly describing the SST multidecadal variability and the initialization appears to play an important role in this respect.

scholarly journals Saudi-KAU Coupled Global Climate Model: Description and Performance

2017 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mansour Almazroui ◽  
Osama Tayeb ◽  
Abdulfattah S. Mashat ◽  
Ahmed Yousef ◽  
Yusuf A. Al-Turki ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Model Description ◽  
And Performance ◽  
Coupled Global Climate Model

scholarly journals Multidecadal ENSO Amplitude Variability in a 1000-yr Simulation of a Coupled Global Climate Model: Implications for Observed ENSO Variability

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (23) ◽  
pp. 9399-9407 ◽  
Author(s):  
Simon Borlace ◽  
Wenju Cai ◽  
Agus Santoso
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Time Scales ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Warming Trend ◽  
Recent Change ◽  
Climate Change Signal ◽  
Coupled Global Climate Model

The amplitude of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) can vary naturally over multidecadal time scales and can be influenced by climate change. However, determining the mechanism for this variation is difficult because of the paucity of observations over such long time scales. Using a 1000-yr integration of a coupled global climate model and a linear stability analysis, it is demonstrated that multidecadal modulation of ENSO amplitude can be driven by variations in the governing dynamics. In this model, the modulation is controlled by the underlying thermocline feedback mechanism, which in turn is governed by the response of the oceanic thermocline slope across the equatorial Pacific to changes in the overlying basinwide zonal winds. Furthermore, the episodic strengthening and weakening of this coupled interaction is shown to be linked to the slowly varying background climate. In comparison with the model statistics, the recent change of ENSO amplitude in observations appears to be still within the range of natural variability. This is despite the apparent warming trend in the mean climate. Hence, this study suggests that it may be difficult to infer a climate change signal from changes in ENSO amplitude alone, particularly given the presently limited observational data.

Multiyear Predictions of North Atlantic Hurricane Frequency: Promise and Limitations

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (15) ◽  
pp. 5337-5357 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gabriel A. Vecchi ◽  
Rym Msadek ◽  
Whit Anderson ◽  
You-Soon Chang ◽  
Thomas Delworth ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
North Atlantic Ocean ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Tropical Atlantic ◽  
Forecast Performance ◽  
Atlantic Hurricane ◽  
Model Average

Abstract Retrospective predictions of multiyear North Atlantic Ocean hurricane frequency are explored by applying a hybrid statistical–dynamical forecast system to initialized and noninitialized multiyear forecasts of tropical Atlantic and tropical-mean sea surface temperatures (SSTs) from two global climate model forecast systems. By accounting for impacts of initialization and radiative forcing, retrospective predictions of 5- and 9-yr mean tropical Atlantic hurricane frequency show significant correlations relative to a null hypothesis of zero correlation. The retrospective correlations are increased in a two-model average forecast and by using a lagged-ensemble approach, with the two-model ensemble decadal forecasts of hurricane frequency over 1961–2011 yielding correlation coefficients that approach 0.9. These encouraging retrospective multiyear hurricane predictions, however, should be interpreted with care: although initialized forecasts have higher nominal skill than uninitialized ones, the relatively short record and large autocorrelation of the time series limits confidence in distinguishing between the skill caused by external forcing and that added by initialization. The nominal increase in correlation in the initialized forecasts relative to the uninitialized experiments is caused by improved representation of the multiyear tropical Atlantic SST anomalies. The skill in the initialized forecasts comes in large part from the persistence of a mid-1990s shift by the initialized forecasts, rather than from predicting its evolution. Predicting shifts like that observed in 1994/95 remains a critical issue for the success of multiyear forecasts of Atlantic hurricane frequency. The retrospective forecasts highlight the possibility that changes in observing system impact forecast performance.

scholarly journals Atmospheric Modes of Variability in a Changing Climate

2006 ◽  
Vol 19 (22) ◽  
pp. 5934-5943 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jenny Brandefelt
Keyword(s):  
Southern Hemisphere ◽  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Spatial Patterns ◽  
Rossby Waves ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Atmospheric Variability ◽  
Modes Of Variability ◽  
Coupled Global Climate Model

Abstract The response of the atmospheric circulation to an enhanced radiative greenhouse gas forcing in a transient integration with a coupled global climate model is investigated. The spatial patterns of the leading modes of Northern Hemisphere atmospheric variability are shown to change in response to the enhanced forcing. An earlier study showed that the spatial patterns of the leading modes in the Southern Hemisphere changed in response to the enhanced forcing. These changes were associated with changes in the propagation conditions for barotropic Rossby waves. This is, however, not the case for the Northern Hemisphere, where the propagation conditions are unchanged. Other possible mechanisms for the changes in the spatial patterns of the leading modes are discussed.

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