scholarly journals Impact of the observed SST frequency in the model initialization on the BSISO prediction

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xueyan Zhu ◽  
Xiangwen Liu ◽  
Anning Huang ◽  
Yang Zhou ◽  
Yang Wu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Intraseasonal Oscillation ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
Prediction Skill ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Coupled Models ◽  
Climate System Model ◽  
Model Initialization ◽  
Static Energy ◽  
Forecast Time ◽  
The Impact

AbstractThe impact of the observed sea surface temperature (SST) frequency in the model initialization on the prediction of the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) over the Western North Pacific (WNP) is investigated using the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model. Three sets of hindcast experiments initialized by the observed monthly, weekly and daily SST data (referred to as the Exp_MSST, Exp_WSST and Exp_DSST, respectively) are conducted with 3-month integration starting from the 1st, 11th, and 21st day of each month in June–August during 2000–2014, respectively. The results show that the useful prediction skill of BSISO index reaches out to about 10 days in the Exp_MSST, and further increases by 1–2 days in the Exp_WSST and Exp_DSST. The skill differences among various hindcast experiments are especially apparent during the forecast time of 6–20 days. Focusing on the strong BSISO cases in this period, the BSISO activity and its related moist static energy (MSE) characteristics over the WNP are further diagnosed. It is found that from the Exp_MSST to the Exp_WSST and Exp_DSST, the enhanced BSISO prediction skill is associated with the more realistic variations of intraseasonal MSE and its tendency. Among the various budget terms that dominate the MSE tendency, the surface latent heat flux and MSE advection are evidently improved, with reduction of mean biases by more than 21% and 10%, respectively. Therefore, the better reproduced MSE variation may contribute to the more skillful BSISO forecast through improving the surface evaporation as well as atmospheric convergence and divergence that related to the BSISO activity. Our findings suggest the necessity of increasing the observed SST frequency (i.e., from monthly to weekly or daily) in the initialization process of coupled models to enhance the actual BSISO predictability, since some current subseasonal forecast operations and researches still use relatively low-frequency SST observations for the model initialization.

scholarly journals The Impact of Finer-Resolution Air–Sea Coupling on the Intraseasonal Oscillation of the Indian Monsoon

2011 ◽  
Vol 24 (10) ◽  
pp. 2451-2468 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicholas P. Klingaman ◽  
Steven J. Woolnough ◽  
Hilary Weller ◽  
Julia M. Slingo
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Stability ◽  
Intraseasonal Oscillation ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Upper Ocean ◽  
Vertical Resolution ◽  
Coupled Models ◽  
Diurnal Variability ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Coupling Frequency

Abstract A newly assembled atmosphere–ocean coupled model, called HadKPP, is described and then used to determine the effects of subdaily air–sea coupling and fine near-surface ocean vertical resolution on the representation of the Northern Hemisphere summer intraseasonal oscillation. HadKPP comprises the Hadley Centre atmospheric model coupled to the K-Profile Parameterization ocean boundary layer model. Four 30-member ensembles were performed that vary in ocean vertical resolution between 1 and 10 m and in coupling frequency between 3 and 24 h. The 10-m, 24-h ensemble exhibited roughly 60% of the observed 30–50-day variability in sea surface temperatures and rainfall and very weak northward propagation. Enhancing only the vertical resolution or only the coupling frequency produced modest improvements in variability and just a standing intraseasonal oscillation. Only the 1-m, 3-h configuration generated organized, northward-propagating convection similar to observations. Subdaily surface forcing produced stronger upper-ocean temperature anomalies in quadrature with anomalous convection, which likely affected lower-atmospheric stability ahead of the convection, causing propagation. Well-resolved air–sea coupling did not improve the eastward propagation of the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation in this model. Upper-ocean vertical mixing and diurnal variability in coupled models must be improved to accurately resolve and simulate tropical subseasonal variability. In HadKPP, the mere presence of air–sea coupling was not sufficient to generate an intraseasonal oscillation resembling observations.

Quasi-Biweekly Extensions of the Monsoon Winds and the Philippines Diurnal Cycle

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael B. Natoli ◽  
Eric D. Maloney
Keyword(s):  
Diurnal Cycle ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Transition Period ◽  
Intraseasonal Oscillation ◽  
Maximum Amplitude ◽  
Longwave Radiation ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Monsoon Winds ◽  
The Impact

AbstractThe impact of quasi-biweekly variability in the monsoon southwesterly winds on the precipitation diurnal cycle in the Philippines is examined using CMORPH precipitation, ERA5 reanalysis, and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) fields. Both a case study during the 2018 Propagation of Intraseasonal Tropical Oscillations (PISTON) field campaign and a 23-year composite analysis are used to understand the effect of the QBWO on the diurnal cycle. QBWO events in the west Pacific, identified with an extended EOF index, bring increases in moisture, cloudiness, and westerly winds to the Philippines. Such events are associated with significant variability in daily mean precipitation and the diurnal cycle. It is shown that the modulation of the diurnal cycle by the QBWO is remarkably similar to that by the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO). The diurnal cycle reaches a maximum amplitude on the western side of the Philippines on days with average to above average moisture, sufficient insolation, and weakly offshore prevailing wind. This occurs during the transition period from suppressed to active large-scale convection for both the QBWO and BSISO.Westerly monsoon surges associated with QBWO variability generally exhibit active precipitation over the South China Sea (SCS), but a depressed diurnal cycle. These results highlight that modes of large-scale convective variability in the tropics can have a similar impact on the diurnal cycle if they influence the local scale environmental background state similarly.

scholarly journals Predictability and prediction skill of the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation in the Intraseasonal Variability Hindcast Experiment

2015 ◽  
Vol 45 (7-8) ◽  
pp. 2123-2135 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sun-Seon Lee ◽  
Bin Wang ◽  
Duane E. Waliser ◽  
Joseph Mani Neena ◽  
June-Yi Lee
Keyword(s):  
Intraseasonal Variability ◽  
Intraseasonal Oscillation ◽  
Prediction Skill ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation

Intraseasonal Forecasting of the Asian Summer Monsoon in Four Operational and Research Models*

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (12) ◽  
pp. 4186-4203 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiouhua Fu ◽  
June-Yi Lee ◽  
Bin Wang ◽  
Wanqiu Wang ◽  
Frederic Vitart
Keyword(s):  
Summer Monsoon ◽  
Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
Intraseasonal Oscillation ◽  
Monsoon Trough ◽  
Prediction Skill ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
International Programs ◽  
Anomaly Correlation Coefficient ◽  
Asian Summer ◽  
The University

Abstract The boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) is a dominant tropical mode with a period of 30–60 days, which offers an opportunity for intraseasonal forecasting of the Asian summer monsoon. The present study provides a preliminary, yet up-to-date, assessment of the prediction skill of the BSISO in four state-of-the-art models: the ECMWF model, the University of Hawaii (UH) model, the NCEP Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2), and version 1 for the 2008 summer (CFSv1), which is a common year of two international programs: the Year of Tropical Convection (YOTC) and Asian Monsoon Years (AMY). The mean prediction skill over the global tropics and Southeast Asia for first three models reaches about 1–2 (3) weeks for BSISO-related rainfall (850-hPa zonal wind), measured as the lead time when the spatial anomaly correlation coefficient drops to 0.5. The skill of CFSv1 is consistently lower than the other three. The strengths and weaknesses of the CFSv2, UH, and ECMWF models in forecasting the BSISO for this specific year are further revealed. The ECMWF and UH have relatively better performance for northward-propagating BSISO when the initial convection is near the equator, although they suffer from an early false BSISO onset when initial convection is in the off-equatorial monsoon trough. However, CFSv2 does not have a false onset problem when the initial convection is in monsoon trough, but it does have a problem with very slow northward propagation. After combining the forecasts of CFSv2 and UH into an equal-weighted multimodel ensemble, the resultant skill is slightly better than that of individual models. An empirical model shows a comparable skill with the dynamical models. A combined dynamical–empirical ensemble advances the intraseasonal forecast skill of BSISO-related rainfall to three weeks.

scholarly journals Boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation in a superparameterized GCM: effects of air-sea coupling and ocean mean state

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yingxia Gao ◽  
Nicholas P. Klingaman ◽  
Charlotte A. DeMott ◽  
Pang-Chi Hsu
Keyword(s):  
Intraseasonal Oscillation ◽  
Phase Relationship ◽  
Atmospheric Model ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Coupled Models ◽  
Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation ◽  
Taylor Diagram ◽  
The Indian Ocean ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Mean State

Abstract. The effect of air-sea coupling on the simulated boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) is examined using atmosphere—ocean-mixed-layer coupled (SPCAM3-KPP) and uncoupled configurations of the Super-Parameterized (SP) Community Atmospheric Model, version 3 (SPCAM3). The coupled configuration is constrained to either the observed ocean mean state or the mean state from the SP coupled configuration with a dynamic ocean (SPCCSM3), to understand the effect of mean state biases on the BSISO in the latter. All configurations overestimate summer mean subtropical rainfall and its intraseasonal variance. All configurations simulate realistic BSISO northward propagation over the Indian Ocean and western Pacific, in common with other SP configurations. Constraining SPCAM3-KPP to the SPCCSM3 mean state reduces the overestimated BSISO variability, but also weakens BSISO propagation. Using the SPCCSM3 mean state also introduces a one-month delay to the BSISO seasonal cycle compared to SPCAM3-KPP with the observed ocean mean state, which matches well with the reanalysis. The phase relationship between intraseasonal rainfall and sea surface temperature (SST) is captured by all coupled models, but with a shorter delay between suppressed convection and warm SST relative to the reanalysis. Prescribing the 31-day smoothed SSTs from the SPCAM3-KPP simulations in SPCAM3 worsens the overestimated BSISO variance. This suggests that air-sea coupling improves the amplitude of the simulated BSISO. Based on a Taylor diagram, SPCCSM3 mean state SST biases and air-sea coupling both lead to higher simulated BSISO fidelity, largely due to their ability to suppress the overestimated subtropical BSISO variance.

Northward Propagation Mechanisms of the Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation in the ERA-Interim and SP-CCSM

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (6) ◽  
pp. 1973-1992 ◽  
Author(s):  
Charlotte A. DeMott ◽  
Cristiana Stan ◽  
David A. Randall
Keyword(s):  
Boundary Layer ◽  
Arabian Sea ◽  
Intraseasonal Oscillation ◽  
Lower Troposphere ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Climate System Model ◽  
Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation ◽  
Moisture Advection ◽  
Northward Propagation ◽  
Barotropic Vorticity

Abstract Mechanisms for the northward propagation (NP) of the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) and associated Asian summer monsoon (ASM) are investigated using data from the interim ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim, herein called ERAI) and the superparameterized Community Climate System Model (SP-CCSM). Analyzed mechanisms are 1) destabilization of the lower troposphere by sea surface temperature anomalies, 2) boundary layer moisture advection, and boundary layer convergence associated with 3) SST gradients and 4) barotropic vorticity anomalies. Mechanism indices are regressed onto filtered OLR anomaly time series to study their relationships to the intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) and to equatorial Rossby (ER) waves. Northward propagation in ERAI and SP-CCSM is promoted by several mechanisms, but is dominated by boundary layer moisture advection and the barotropic vorticity effect. SST-linked mechanisms are of secondary importance but are nonnegligible. The magnitudes of NP mechanisms vary from the Indian Ocean to the west Pacific Ocean, implying that NP is accomplished by different mechanisms across the study area. SP-CCSM correctly simulates observed NP mechanisms over most of the ASM domain except in the Arabian Sea during the early stages of the monsoon life cycle. Reduced NP in the Arabian Sea arises from weaker-than-observed easterly shear, reducing the effectiveness of the barotropic vorticity mechanism. The ability of SP-CCSM to correctly simulate NP mechanisms in other regions results from the model’s ability to simulate reasonable mean wind and moisture fields, a realistic spectrum of variability, and the capability of convection to respond to boundary layer changes induced by large-scale NP mechanisms.

scholarly journals Multi-Model Ensemble Sub-Seasonal Forecasting of Precipitation over the Maritime Continent in Boreal Summer

Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. 515
Author(s):  
Yan Wang ◽  
Hong-Li Ren ◽  
Fang Zhou ◽  
Joshua-Xiouhua Fu ◽  
Quan-Liang Chen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Correlation Coefficient ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Intraseasonal Oscillation ◽  
Temporal Correlation ◽  
Prediction Skill ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Model Ensemble ◽  
Maritime Continent ◽  
China Meteorological Administration ◽  
Prediction Ability

The Maritime Continent (MC) is a critical region with unique geographical conditions and significant monsoon activities that plays a vital role in global climate variation. In this study, the weekly prediction of precipitation over the MC during boreal summer (from May to September) was analyzed using the 12-year reforecasts data from five Sub-seasonal to Seasonal (S2S) models, including the China Meteorological Administration (CMA), the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC), the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), and the Met Office (UKMO). The result shows that, compared with the individual models, our newly derived median multi-model ensemble (MME) can significantly improve the prediction skill of sub-seasonal precipitation in the MC. Both the Temporal Correlation Coefficient (TCC) skill and the Pattern Correlation Coefficient (PCC) skill reached 0.6 in lead week 1, dropped the following week, did not exceed 0.2 in lead week 3, and then lost their significance. The results show higher prediction skill near the Equator than in the north at 10° N. It is difficult to make effective predictions with the models beyond three weeks. The prediction ability of the median MME improves significantly as the total number of model members increases. The prediction performance of the median MME depends not only on the diversity of models but also on the number of model members. Moreover, the prediction skill is particularly sensitive to the intensity and phase of Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation 1 (BSISO1) with the highest skills appearing at initial phases 1 and 5.

scholarly journals Observational study on boundary-layer moist static energy budget over the tropical western Pacific and its variability associated with boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Boundary Layer ◽  
Mass Flux ◽  
Intraseasonal Oscillation ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Active Period ◽  
Convective Activity ◽  
Moist Static Energy ◽  
Tropical Western Pacific ◽  
Mass Fluxes ◽  
Static Energy

Abstract Moist static energy (MSE) in the atmospheric boundary layer (BL) is one of the essential parameters determining convective activity over tropical oceanic areas. It is thus important to quantitatively understand BL MSE budget processes and their variability. Among these processes, only few studies have evaluated contributions of entrainment across the BL top and convective downdraft. This study aims to estimate these contributions by analyzing upper-air and surface meteorological observations obtained using Research Vessel Mirai over the tropical western Pacific in June 2008. Daily-mean downward mass fluxes due to the two processes are calculated using BL dry static energy and moisture budget equations under the BL quasi-equilibrium approximation. Estimated mass fluxes are consistent with convective activity observed by a shipborne weather radar and a ceilometer. This study further examines how the mass fluxes and budget processes are modulated when a convectively active phase of boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation arrives at the observation area in the second half of the month. It is found that, while the contribution of the entrainment does not change significantly, the convective downdraft mass flux and the resultant BL MSE export increase 5 times and 3 times, respectively, in the convectively active period compared with those in the pre-active period. Furthermore, ~1/4 of the increase in the convective downdraft mass flux is attributable to the increase in MSE of convective downdraft air associated with mid-tropospheric moistening.

scholarly journals Assessment of the Ability of CMIP6 GCMS to Simulate the Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation Over Southeast Asia

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abayomi A. Abatan ◽  
Matthew Collins ◽  
Mukand S. Babel ◽  
Dibesh Khadka ◽  
Yenushi K. De Silva
Keyword(s):  
Southeast Asia ◽  
Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
Intraseasonal Variability ◽  
Intraseasonal Oscillation ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Study Region ◽  
Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation ◽  
Good Ability ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Static Energy

The boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) plays an important role in the intraseasonal variability of a wide range of weather and climate phenomena across the region modulated by the Asian summer monsoon system. This study evaluates the strengths and weaknesses of 19 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models to reproduce the basic characteristics of BSISO. The models' rainfall and largescale climates are evaluated against GPCP and ERA5 reanalysis datasets. All models exhibit intraseasonal variance of 30–60-day bandpass-filtered rainfall and convection anomalies but with diverse magnitude when compared with observations. The CMIP6 models capture the structure of the eastward/northward propagating BSISO at wavenumbers 1 and 2 but struggle with the intensity and location of the convection signal. Nevertheless, the models show a good ability to simulate the power spectrum and coherence squared of the principal components of the combined empirical orthogonal function (CEOF) and can capture the distinction between the CEOF modes and red noise. Also, the result shows that some CMIP6 models can capture the coherent intraseasonal propagating features of the BSISO as indicated by the Hovmöller diagram. The contribution of latent static energy to the relationship between the moist static energy and intraseasonal rainfall over Southeast Asia is also simulated by the selected models, albeit the signals are weak. Taking together, some of the CMIP6 models can represent the summertime climate and intraseasonal variability over the study region, and can also simulate the propagating features of BSISO, but biases still exist.

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