scholarly journals Impact of the Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation on Typhoon Tracks in the Western North Pacific and the Prediction Skill of the ECMWF model.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Nakano ◽  
F. Vitart ◽  
K. Kikuchi
Keyword(s):  
North Pacific ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
Intraseasonal Oscillation ◽  
Prediction Skill ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation ◽  
Typhoon Tracks ◽  
Ecmwf Model

scholarly journals Impacts of atmospheric and oceanic initial conditions on boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation forecast in the BCC model

2020 ◽  
Vol 142 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 393-406
Author(s):  
Zhongkai Bo ◽  
Xiangwen Liu ◽  
Weizong Gu ◽  
Anning Huang ◽  
Yongjie Fang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Intraseasonal Oscillation ◽  
Tropical Indian Ocean ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Model Errors ◽  
Maritime Continent ◽  
Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation

Abstract In this paper, we evaluate the capability of the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model (BCC-CSM) in simulating and forecasting the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO), using its simulation and sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) hindcast results. Results show that the model can generally simulate the spatial structure of the BSISO, but give relatively weaker strength, shorter period, and faster transition of BSISO phases when compared with the observations. This partially limits the model’s capability in forecasting the BSISO, with a useful skill of only 9 days. Two sets of hindcast experiments with improved atmospheric and atmosphere/ocean initial conditions (referred to as EXP1 and EXP2, respectively) are conducted to improve the BSISO forecast. The BSISO forecast skill is increased by 2 days with the optimization of atmospheric initial conditions only (EXP1), and is further increased by 1 day with the optimization of both atmospheric and oceanic initial conditions (EXP2). These changes lead to a final skill of 12 days, which is comparable to the skills of most models participated in the S2S Prediction Project. In EXP1 and EXP2, the BSISO forecast skills are improved for most initial phases, especially phases 1 and 2, denoting a better description for BSISO propagation from the tropical Indian Ocean to the western North Pacific. However, the skill is considerably low and insensitive to initial conditions for initial phase 6 and target phase 3, corresponding to the BSISO convection’s active-to-break transition over the western North Pacific and BSISO convection’s break-to-active transition over the tropical Indian Ocean and Maritime Continent. This prediction barrier also exists in many forecast models of the S2S Prediction Project. Our hindcast experiments with different initial conditions indicate that the remarkable model errors over the Maritime Continent and subtropical western North Pacific may largely account for the prediction barrier.

scholarly journals Atmospheric Rivers over the Indo-Pacific and its Associations with Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-46
Author(s):  
Xiaojun Guo ◽  
Ning Zhao ◽  
Kazuyoshi Kikuchi ◽  
Tomoe Nasuno ◽  
Masuo Nakano ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
North Pacific ◽  
Moisture Transport ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
Intraseasonal Variability ◽  
Intraseasonal Oscillation ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Reanalysis Dataset ◽  
Convective Envelope ◽  
Atmospheric Rivers ◽  
Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation

AbstractRecent works have revealed that the wintertime atmospheric river (AR) activity is closely related to the 30–60-day tropical intraseasonal variability, yet it remains unclear whether summertime AR activity is also significantly influenced by the intraseasonal variability, often referred to as the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO). Diagnosing the 40-year (1979–2018) ERA5 reanalysis dataset, the present study examines the climatological features of ARs over the Indo-Pacific region during June to October and its associations with the BSISO. Results suggest that the western North Pacific Subtropical High (WNPSH) provides a favorable circulation background for the summertime AR activity, which conveys the moisture from the tropics to midlatitude North Pacific along its periphery. Our analysis reveals that the BSISO has substantial impacts on the occurrence and distribution of ARs. More ARs are found over the western North Pacific (WNP) when the BSISO convective envelope propagates northward to the subtropical regions, while fewer ARs can be seen when convection is suppressed there. Specifically, in phases 7–8, the active BSISO convection over the Philippine Sea induces a low-pressure anomaly and the corresponding anomalous cyclonic circulation, leading to the enhanced poleward moisture transport and more frequent AR activity over the WNP. Moreover, the WNP ARs tend to be longer and have larger sizes during these two phases. It is also found that more frequent occurrence of tropical cyclones in phases 7–8 can significantly enhance the moisture transport and AR occurrence over the WNP.

scholarly journals Asymmetric Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation Events Over the Western North Pacific and Their Impacts on East Asian Precipitation

2022 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wen Li ◽  
Xiu-Qun Yang ◽  
Jiabei Fang ◽  
Lingfeng Tao ◽  
Xiaozhuo Sang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
North Pacific ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
East Asian ◽  
Intraseasonal Oscillation ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation ◽  
Long Period ◽  
Short Period ◽  
Rapid Reversal ◽  
Fast Development

Abstract The boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) is the most prominent tropical subseasonal signature especially over the western North Pacific (WNP). Due to restrictions of methodology in extracting BSISO with band-pass filtering or EOF decomposition, most of the previous studies ignored the asymmetry of BSISO. This study reexamines the BSISO events over WNP and their impacts on the East Asian precipitation. With a hierarchical cluster analysis, the BSISO events over WNP during the summers of 1985-2010 are classified into two categories, the long-period (30-60 day) and short-period (10-20 day) events. The long-period BSISO events manifest as a northward propagating mode with a significant phase asymmetry characterized by a fast development, but a slow decay of the intraseasonal convection. The fast development tends to cause a rapid reversal of the atmospheric anomalies over WNP from an anomalous anticyclone induced by the preceding slow convection suppression to an anomalous cyclone, leading to a fast northeastward retreat of the preceding enhanced western North Pacific subtropical high. Accordingly, the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River valley experience a rapid reversal from the increased precipitation to the decreased, while the precipitation in coastal South China keeps decreased. The short-period BSISO events which are symmetric in phase act as a northwestward propagating mode, mainly affecting East Asian precipitation in an oblique belt extending from southwest China to southern Japan and southern Korean Peninsula. Therefore, the two types of the BSISO events especially the asymmetric long-period BSISO events over WNP and their impacts on the East Asian precipitation revealed in this study would provide a new potential for subseasonal-to-seasonal forecast of the East Asian summer monsoon precipitation.

scholarly journals Impact of the Extended Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation on Western North Pacific Tropical Cloud Cluster Genesis Productivity

2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (22) ◽  
pp. 9175-9191 ◽  
Author(s):  
Haikun Zhao ◽  
Shaohua Chen ◽  
Philip J. Klotzbach ◽  
G. B. Raga
Keyword(s):  
Relative Humidity ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Intraseasonal Oscillation ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Synoptic Scale ◽  
Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation ◽  
Low Level ◽  
The Impact

Tropical cloud clusters (TCCs) are traditionally viewed as precursors of tropical cyclone (TC) genesis. Most studies have focused on the impact of the extended boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) on TC activity over the western North Pacific (WNP), while the modulation of the ISO on WNP TCC genesis productivity (TCCGP), that is, the ratio of TC to TCC counts, has been investigated much less frequently. This study suggests that the extended boreal summer ISO modulates WNP TCCGP, with higher (lower) TCCGP during convectively active (inactive) ISO phases. Changes in TCCGP are found to be closely associated with changes of large-scale environmental factors. During the convectively active ISO phase, significantly increased TCCGP is associated with strengthened low-level cyclonic circulation anomalies and increased midlevel relative humidity anomalies over the WNP basin. The genesis potential index (GPI) contains several large-scale environmental variables demonstrated to relate to TCs and TCCs. The GPI can adequately depict the ISO modulation of WNP TCCGP through its alterations of large-scale parameters. Low-level vorticity makes the largest contribution to the change of TCCGP with a secondary contribution from midlevel relative humidity. Interestingly, the nonlinear GPI terms make comparable contributions, which can be partly explained by the synoptic-scale wave activity associated with the ISO mode. Stronger (weaker) 3–8-day synoptic-scale wave train intensity and increased (decreased) low-level eddy kinetic energy are found to be associated with the enhanced (weakened) monsoon circulation over the WNP basin during convectively active (inactive) ISO phases.

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