Observed and projected changes in extreme drought and flood-prone regions over India under CMIP5 RCP8.5 using a new vulnerability index

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pravat Jena ◽  
Sarita Azad
Keyword(s):  
Vulnerability Index ◽  
Extreme Drought ◽  
Drought And Flood ◽  
Projected Changes

Observed and projected changes in extreme drought and wet-prone regions over India under CMIP5 RCP8.5 using a new vulnerability index

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pravat Jena ◽  
sarita azad
Keyword(s):  
East Coast ◽  
Monsoon Rainfall ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Vulnerability Index ◽  
Extreme Drought ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Economic Parameters ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Projected Changes ◽  
Individual Grid

Abstract Past versions of vulnerability index have shown ability to detect susceptible region by assessing socio-economic parameters at local scales. However, due to variability of these vulnerability index respect to socio-economic parameters, cann’t be utilized to predict the susceptibility region. The present endeavor aims to develops a new vulnerable index which identify and predict the spatio-temporal imprint of extreme drought and wet events at various scales 1o×1o in India by analyzing monthly observed and Coupled Model Inter-Comparison Phase 5 (CMIP5) rainfall data at spatial scale of time period pertaining to 1901-2100. New vulnerability index is proposed by consolidating the outcomes of Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) at different time scales such as 3- and 12-month and along with weights of individual grids. The weights of individual grid is calculated through the occurrence of extreme drought and wet events in the recent past which is to include a climate change factor in the proposed index. Based on the spatial distribution of high index values, the expected vulnerable regions concerning extreme drought events will be in Northeast, Northeast Central, East Coast, West, Northwest, Northcentral, and some grids in South part of India. Similarly, vulnerable regions concerning extreme wet events are likely to be in the Northeast, West Coast, East Coast, and some grids in the Peninsular region.Further, a conceptual model is presented to quantify the severity of extreme events. The analyses reveal that on the CMIP5 model data, it is obtained that 2024, 2026-27, 2035, 2036-37, 2043-44, 2059-60, 2094 are likely to be the most prominent drought years in all-India monsoon rainfall and their impact will persist for a longer time. Similarly, the most prominent wet events are predicted to be 2076, 2079-80, 2085, 2090, 2092, and 2099.

Changes of extreme drought and flood events in Iran

2016 ◽  
Vol 144 ◽  
pp. 67-81 ◽  
Author(s):  
Reza Modarres ◽  
Ali Sarhadi ◽  
Donald H. Burn
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Drought ◽  
Flood Events ◽  
Drought And Flood

scholarly journals Drought vulnerability of Marathwada region, India: A spatial analysis

GeoScape ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 108-121
Author(s):  
Sagar Khetwani ◽  
Ram Babu Singh
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Analysis ◽  
Geographical Area ◽  
Vulnerability Index ◽  
District Level ◽  
Economic Resources ◽  
Extreme Drought ◽  
Economic Indicators ◽  
Drought Vulnerability ◽  
Human Wellbeing

AbstractThe magnitude and frequency of severe and extreme drought events continue to grow, instigating a grave risk to human wellbeing. Marathwada region of India is one of the most chronically drought affected region of India. The sequential drought events between the years 2012 to 2016 acutely impacted the natural as well as socio-economic resources of the region. This study attempts to assess the drought vulnerability of Marathwada region at sub-district level. An integrated drought vulnerability index has been developed by blending biophysical and socio-economic indicators of drought vulnerability. The analysis revealed that sub-districts like Shirur-Anantpal, Deoni, Shirur Kasar, Dharur, Biloli, Paranda, Mukhed, Khuldabad, Patoda, Hadgaon, Palam, Badnapur and Kaij, emerged as the very highly vulnerable to drought, representing 14.43% of geographical area and 10.96% of population of Marathwada while the sub-districts lying under the category of high drought vulnerability represented 39.15% of geographical area and 34.69% of population.

scholarly journals Climate vulnerability scenario of the agri-fishery communities in the Bicol River Basin, Philippines

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ricky Laureta ◽  
Ric Ryan Regalado ◽  
Ermar De La Cruz
Keyword(s):  
Adaptive Capacity ◽  
River Basin ◽  
National Level ◽  
Vulnerability Index ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Local Climate ◽  
Rural Agriculture ◽  
Agriculture Sector ◽  
The North ◽  
Projected Changes

Abstract This paper investigated the vulnerability of the agriculture sector and rural agriculture livelihoods in the Bicol River Basin (BRB) of the Philippines to projected changes in climate. The geographical characteristics of the BRB feature eight major sub-basins or watersheds consisting of Libmanan-Pulantuna, Ragay Hills, Thiris, Naga-Yabo, Pawili River, Waras-Lalo, Naporog, and Quinali. The study applied the combination of the participatory tools and the Climate Risk Vulnerability Assessment (CRVA) framework to gather information on local climate vulnerabilities and contexts. Briefly, the CRVA employed geospatial modeling and utilized a number of indicators that are presumed to affect vulnerability including exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity which were aggregated to provide an index of vulnerability. This enabled us to identify areas of exposure and vulnerability and pointed areas of greatest need for strengthened adaptive capacity and risk management. Our findings revealed that vulnerability in the BRB was perceived to be relatively prevalent and that typhoons, flooding, and drought were identified to contribute significant impacts to the rural livelihood. Furthermore, our findings in the CRVA suggested significant regional differences in vulnerability in the BRB. Majority of the towns in the north and central portions of the BRB will largely experience increased vulnerability, particularly, in the Thiris sub-basin including some parts of Ragay Hills, Waras-Lalo, and the northwestern Libmanan-Pulantuna sub-basins. On the contrary, the entire Quinali region on the south revealed to have the lowest vulnerability index. The clear policy implication of these accounts will be on how to mobilize developmental thrusts in both areas of disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation at the sub-national level to reinforce local-based climate priority setting in adaptation interventions and policies.

scholarly journals Climate vulnerability scenario of the agricultural sector in the Bicol 2 River Basin, Philippines

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ricky Laureta ◽  
Ric Ryan Regalado ◽  
Ermar De La Cruz
Keyword(s):  
Adaptive Capacity ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
National Level ◽  
Vulnerability Index ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Local Climate ◽  
Rural Agriculture ◽  
Agriculture Sector ◽  
Projected Changes

Abstract This paper investigated the vulnerability of the agriculture sector and rural agriculture livelihoods in the Bicol River Basin (BRB) of the Philippines to projected changes in climate. The geographical characteristics of the BRB feature eight major sub-basins or watersheds consisting of Libmanan-Pulantuna, Ragay Hills, Thiris, Naga-Yabo, Pawili River, Waras-Lalo, Naporog, and Quinali. The study applied the combination of the participatory tools and the Climate Risk Vulnerability Assessment (CRVA) framework to gather information on local climate vulnerabilities and contexts. Briefly, the CRVA employed geospatial modeling and utilized several indicators which are presumed to affect vulnerability including exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity which were aggregated to provide an index of vulnerability. This enabled us to identify areas of exposure and vulnerability and pointed areas of greatest need for strengthened adaptive capacity and risk management. Our findings revealed that vulnerability in the BRB was perceived to be relatively prevalent and that typhoons, flooding, and drought were identified to contribute significant impacts to rural livelihood. Furthermore, our findings in the CRVA suggested significant regional differences in vulnerability in the BRB. The majority of the towns in the central and northwestern portions of the BRB will largely experience increased vulnerability, particularly, in the Thiris sub-basin including some parts of Ragay Hills, Waras-Lalo, and the northwestern Libmanan-Pulantuna sub-basins. On the contrary, the entire Quinali region on the south is revealed to have the lowest vulnerability index. The clear policy implication of these accounts will be on how to mobilize developmental thrusts in both areas of disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation at the sub-national level to reinforce local-based climate priority setting in adaptation interventions and policies.

Growth responses of Tamarix austromongolica to extreme drought and flood in the upper Yellow River basin

2021 ◽  
Vol 45 (6) ◽  
pp. 641-649
Author(s):  
Ou-Ya FANG ◽  
Yong ZHANG ◽  
Qi ZHANG ◽  
Heng-Feng JIA ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Yellow River ◽  
Yellow River Basin ◽  
Extreme Drought ◽  
Growth Responses ◽  
Drought And Flood ◽  
Upper Yellow River

scholarly journals Methodology for assessing probability of extreme hydrologic events coincidence

2010 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 187-199
Author(s):  
Stevan Prohaska ◽  
Borislava Blagojevic ◽  
Aleksandra Ilic
Keyword(s):  
Conditional Probability ◽  
Extreme Drought ◽  
Second Phase ◽  
Occurrence Probability ◽  
Drought And Flood ◽  
Extreme Flood ◽  
Original Procedure ◽  
Floods And Droughts ◽  
Two Phases ◽  
Hydrologic Drought

The aim of the presented research is improvement of methodology for probability calculation of coinciding occurrence of historic floods and droughts in the same year. The original procedure was developed in order to determine the occurrence probability of such an extreme historic event. There are two phases in calculation procedure for assessment of both extreme drought and flood occurrence probability in the same year. In the first phase outliers are detected as indicators of extreme events, their return periods are calculated and series' statistics adjusted. In the second phase conditional probabilities are calculated: empirical points are plotted, and both extreme drought and flood occurrence probability in the same year is assessed based on the plot. Outlier detection is performed for the territory of Serbia. Results are shown as maps of regions (basins) prone to floods, hydrologic drought, or both. Step-by-step numeric example is given for assessing conditional probability of occurrence of flood and drought for GS Raska on the river Raska. Results of assessment of conditional probability in two more cases are given for combination of extreme flood and 30 day minimum flow.

scholarly journals Climate vulnerability scenario of the agri-fishery communities in the Bicol River Basin, Philippines

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ricky Laureta ◽  
Ric Ryan Regalado ◽  
Ermar De La Cruz
Keyword(s):  
Adaptive Capacity ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Ecological Model ◽  
Climate Scenario ◽  
Vulnerability Index ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Agriculture Sector ◽  
The North ◽  
Projected Changes ◽  
Key Aspects

Abstract This paper investigated the vulnerability of the agriculture sector and rural agri-fishery livelihoods in the Bicol River Basin (BRB) in the Philippines to projected changes in climate. The geographical characteristics of the BRB features eight major sub-basins or watersheds consisting of Libmanan-Pulantuna, Ragay Hills, Thiris, Naga-Yabo, Pawili River, Waras-Lalo, Naporog, and Quinali. The study adopted the Climate Risk Vulnerability Assessment (CRVA) which employed geospatial modelling through the use of geographic information systems (GIS) data, briefly, a number of indicators which are presumed to affect vulnerability were used including exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity which were aggregated to provide an index of vulnerability. These components were integrated and modelled using GIS by identifying exposure to natural hazards, assessing the sensitivity of major crops to climate variations using ecological model (MaxEnt) under high emission climate scenario (RCP8.5), and identifying key aspects of adaptive capacity. Additionally, we also analyzed the perception of stakeholders towards vulnerability using participatory approaches. This enabled us to identify areas of exposure and vulnerability, and pointed areas of greatest need for strengthened adaptive capacity and risk management. Our findings suggested that majority of the towns in the north and central portions of the BRB will largely experience increased vulnerability, particularly, in the Thiris sub-basin including some parts of Ragay Hills, Waras-Lalo and the northwestern Libmanan-Pulantuna sub-basins. On the contrary, the entire Quinali sub-basin in the south revealed to have the lowest vulnerability index. The information derived from the study can be utilized to reinforce local-based climate policies.

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